2022 Investment Performance Thread

[tsoispf]

-10.67% for 2022 with a 49/26/25 stock/bond/cash asset allocation. I am retired and prefer the cash allocation to get me safely on to Social Security in three years.

[VanWinkle]

-14.6% with a 50/25/25 portfolio. Lots of cash due to a upcoming house purchase in May 2023(being built in Tennessee now)

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by VanWinkle -14.6% with a 50/25/25 portfolio. Lots of cash due to a upcoming house purchase in May 2023(being built in Tennessee now)

East Tennessee?

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by Midpack -12.8% according to Vanguard, target AA in sig line. Our equity holdings fell -13.3% and I held onto bond funds longer than I should have, but corrected in July. But I'm in for the LONG term.

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Originally Posted by sengsational Down 14.3% on 2/3 equities AA target. I do an 'all-in' calculation, so all accounts total liquid net worth on 1/1 and 12/31, with an adjustment for spending. I had the sign wrong on the spending, and it made it look reaaaaly bad! So once I changed the sign, it was a relief to be down "only" 14.3%. ...

I want to start out that I'm not picking on you two but have just noticed a trend that is perplexing. For many posters, their disclosed 2022 returns are a lot better than the 2022 returns under Portfolio Visualizer for a portfolio with the same AA.

For example, a 50/40/10 AA consistent with MidPack's sig line returned -14.85% according to PV, but MidPack bettered it with -12.8% Similiarly, sengsational's reported return for 2022 was -14.3% but a 67/33 AA was -17.43% according to PV.

For the benchmark I used VTSAX (Total Stock Admiral) for equities, VBTLX (Total Bond Admiral) for bonds and CASHX for cash... PV's 2022 returns of -19.53% for VTSAX and -13.16% for VBTLX agreed with the 2022 return for those tickers on the Vanguard website and the CASHX return for 2022 was 1.82%, which seemed reasonable.

So the DQOTD is why are forum members reported returns so much better than the return for a similar AA on Portfolio Visualizer? Superior stock picking? Less interest rate sensitivity that VBTLX due to more IBonds and credit union CDs? Overall shorter duration for bonds and brokered CDs than VBTLX? Other reasons?

In the interest of full disclosure, my reported 2022 return of -4.17% was also significantly better than the -13% per PV for a similar AA... though while my AA drifted over the course of the year as I made some portfolio changes I think -13% is about right.

In my case I'm pretty sure that it is because I sold about 1/2 of my equities from the beginning of the year in January before the blood let too much. Also, 43% of my fixed income at the beginning of the year were preferred shares that I sold off in early February before things got too bloody. So I was cash heavy for a lot of the year.

Finally the fixed income that I didn't sell did a lot better than the -13.16% return for VBTLX in 2022 because it was mostly IBonds and credit union CDs that are not interest rate sensitive.

And yes, its a slow day so far.

[VanWinkle]

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 East Tennessee?

Yes, Tellico Village just southwest of Knoxville.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I want to start out that I'm not picking on you two but have just noticed a trend that is perplexing. For many posters, their disclosed 2022 returns are a lot better than the 2022 returns under Portfolio Visualizer for a portfolio with the same AA. For example, a 50/40/10 AA consistent with MidPack's sig line returned -14.85% according to PV, but MidPack bettered it with -12.8% Similiarly, sengsational's reported return for 2022 was -14.3% but a 67/33 AA was -17.43% according to PV. For the benchmark I used VTSAX (Total Stock Admiral) for equities, VBTLX (Total Bond Admiral) for bonds and CASHX for cash... PV's 2022 returns of -19.53% for VTSAX and -13.16% for VBTLX agreed with the 2022 return for those tickers on the Vanguard website and the CASHX return for 2022 was 1.82%, which seemed reasonable. So the DQOTD is why are forum members reported returns so much better than the return for a similar AA on Portfolio Visualizer? Superior stock picking? Less interest rate sensitivity that VBTLX due to more IBonds and credit union CDs? Overall shorter duration for bonds and brokered CDs than VBTLX? Other reasons? In the interest of full disclosure, my reported 2022 return of -4.17% was also significantly better than the -13% per PV for a similar AA... though while my AA drifted over the course of the year as I made some portfolio changes I think -13% is about right. In my case I'm pretty sure that it is because I sold about 1/2 of my equities from the beginning of the year in January before the blood let too much. Also, 43% of my fixed income at the beginning of the year were preferred shares that I sold off in early February before things got too bloody. So I was cash heavy for a lot of the year. Finally the fixed income that I didn't sell did a lot better than the -13.16% return for VBTLX in 2022 because it was mostly IBonds and credit union CDs that are not interest rate sensitive. And yes, its a slow day so far.

Sounds like you were right once by reducing equities and selling off your preferred stocks before the carnage(tax consequences unknown). There will be another timing to get back in when the market turns and it is difficult to get both of these decisions right.
Good luck to you,

VW

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski In my case I'm pretty sure that it is because I sold about 1/2 of my equities from the beginning of the year in January before the blood let too much. Also, 43% of my fixed income at the beginning of the year were preferred shares that I sold off in early February before things got too bloody. So I was cash heavy for a lot of the year.

I also want to start out that I'm not picking on you but have just noticed this post might be a better fit in the Market Timing Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets forum.

And yes, it's a slow day so far.

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by VanWinkle Sounds like you were right once by reducing equities and selling off your preferred stocks before the carnage(tax consequences unknown). There will be another timing to get back in when the market turns and it is difficult to get both of these decisions right. Good luck to you, VW

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Originally Posted by REWahoo I also want to start out that I'm not picking on you but have just noticed this post might be a better fit in the Market Timing Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets forum. And yes, it's a slow day so far.

Fair points on market timing. It wasn't particularly intentional but it did work out. As VW points out, the real trick is when to get back in.

All in tax deferred and tax free so no tax cost or benefit at all.

[Dtail]

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Originally Posted by pb4uski Fair points on market timing. It wasn't particularly intentional but it did work out. As VW points out, the real trick is when to get back in. All in tax deferred and tax free so no tax cost or benefit at all.

For another reference point, I hold no bonds in my 56% fixed income allocation, so my Stable Value and CD's did much better than the generic bond fund.

[sengsational]

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Originally Posted by pb4uski ... Similiarly, sengsational's reported return for 2022 was -14.3% but a 67/33 AA was -17.43% according to PV.

I'm glad I did better than the basic US large cap / bond fund because lord knows I've often done worse than that AA.

My more detailed asset allocation is probably in the forum somewhere, but I'm too lazy to find it right now. But it's got developed and emerging international and a tilt on the US equities, so not just large cap (or total market which is very large capish anyway). One thing that probably helped is that a major good chunk of my bond allocation is in a 401K stable value fund, so I didn't take it on the chin at all compared to some bond fund holders. And I did sell the smaller bond portion of my AA that was in a bond fund, finally, and bought individual bonds, but I think that was probably too late to help much.

[Markola]

From Novelinvestor.com. [ATTACH]
Good luck to those who like to guess. For my personal risk tolerance, I prefer to buy a few broad index funds and assume some asset classes are baked in that will pop and nosedive unpredictably each year; and then hold them long term so that the various asset classes have time to complete their cycles and have their days in the sun, e.g. Cash in 2022, REITs in 2021, which tanked before and after, etc.

[Happyras]

Ok, the numbers are all in......-13.4% which I think ain't too bad.
I was heavy into large cap growth, and health care well into 2022. A few bonds and some preferred's. But thanks to my life long friend who taught me well, I moved almost all of my 70% equities into SPY and sold covered calls in the late spring. Not for everyone, but I had to put a lot of faith into what the FED has to do, and still must do. Lyn Alden helped reinforce a lot of my own belief.

If I had simply let it roll, I would likely have been down closer to -30% with the allocation I had. My HSA account indicates this, as I did not protect that one account with this strategy.

[copyright1997reloaded]

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Originally Posted by VanWinkle Yes, Tellico Village just southwest of Knoxville.

Tellico is on my list of possible destinations. Please let us know as you go on how things are!

[VanWinkle]

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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Tellico is on my list of possible destinations. Please let us know as you go on how things are!

Will do!!

[RobLJ]

-12.8% with a 57-23-20 portfolio (now, not sure what it was Jan 1 2022).


I thought it was gong to be considerably worse but I had to type in all dividends/capital gains in Quicken for 2 accounts, one of them my biggest account, since the Quicken download no longer works for those accounts (it does update fund values, just not dividends/gains/etc). It made a big difference.
"Just a flesh wound!" -- Black Knight

[almost there]

2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

[target2019]

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Originally Posted by almost there 2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by almost there 2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

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Originally Posted by target2019 For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?

Wrong thread perhaps? Sounds like planned withdrawal rate.

[RetiredAt49]

2022 Year End Performance

AA = 100% equities
Return = Down about 28%

I fired my wealth management company in June 2021. They had me in about 80 individual stocks and I've shifted a majority of my portfolio to low cost index funds.

[steelyman]

With today’s inflation report from BLS, it appears that the 2022 real return from my retirement portfolio was -28.31%.

Quoting a long-running late night talk show gag: “This is only an exhibition, not a competition.”