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Old 01-12-2023, 10:28 AM   #841
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For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?
My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL
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Old 01-12-2023, 10:30 AM   #842
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My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL
Thanks much for clarifying! You are one of the few who know their return in advance!
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Old 01-17-2023, 02:45 PM   #843
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. For many posters, their disclosed 2022 returns are a lot better than the 2022 returns under Portfolio Visualizer for a portfolio with the same AA.
My 58/24/18 ended 2022 down 8.9% on a time-weighted basis

According to PV, 2022 has a ~7% delta between equal and cap-weighted S&P 500 funds:
RSP -11.6%
SPY -18.1%
Highlighting that even when in "the same investment" AA and index type can make a huge difference.
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Old 01-22-2023, 04:07 PM   #844
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Started 2022 at 60/40 with larger cash savings (equal to investment portfolio) with final result of -14.7% and gain to $25K additional to savings with 0.7% withdrawal rate.



Spent October thru December investigating Vanguard/Fidelity/Schwab/regional & national banks/local Financial Planners to determine if I wanted to vacate the investment management seat. Decided to continue self management and continue use of our consultant for simple retirement tax preparation and financial planning. We always meet post tax preparation and anytime during the year to obtain his independent thoughts on proposed changes to our investment strategy and understand future tax implications for our short and long term goals.


In December 1) most stock/bond funds had been changed to Federal Money Market Fund that is currently seeing 4.28% 7 day SEC return 2) Put $400K from savings into new non-retirement accounts to erase 2023 loss and increase investment portfolio 3) purchased $350K of short term CDs with savings cash which should provide +4% return after taxes. In January we kept our 2 best performing investment funds and added 2 new large cap value funds which we can hopefully fund to a higher level this year. Finally we raised our withdrawal rate to 1.75% on a larger investment portfolio which increases or income flow 4X and still allows the portfolio to grow. We have no current need for the additional cash so it will simply go into savings for future use.
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Old 01-22-2023, 05:19 PM   #845
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Originally Posted by JOBO View Post
My 58/24/18 ended 2022 down 8.9% on a time-weighted basis

According to PV, 2022 has a ~7% delta between equal and cap-weighted S&P 500 funds:
RSP -11.6%
SPY -18.1%
Highlighting that even when in "the same investment" AA and index type can make a huge difference.
Probably true, but indices are cap-weighted so an equal weighted index isn't relevant. When someone says 60/40 it's 60 total stock and 40 total bond.
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Old 01-29-2023, 09:22 PM   #846
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Ended 2022 at -6.23%. 93% stocks, 7% bonds. Got lucky where my company stock did well to offset S&P 500 index fund losses. Lost more on my bonds in 2022 than my stocks which I was not expecting.
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Old 01-30-2023, 06:42 AM   #847
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My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL
Ha, you get extra points, literally.
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Old 01-30-2023, 09:59 AM   #848
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Ha, you get extra points, literally.
It is all depends on what is ahead of us. I think that we are heading into recession or already in it (based on many major High Tech companies are massively laid workforce like Tesla, Twitter, Google, Meta etc.) and Feds keep fighting inflation raising rates and slowing economy by doing so. The question is how long the recession is going to last as the world is in a major Geopolitical change and it is not possible to predict economic and financial future. Future of Humanity is also at stake. Russian Dictator threats should not be taken easily. So as usually LOL will be the one, who is going to save their nest egg and in my opinion it will not be easy with 80%-100% equities.
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Old 01-30-2023, 10:11 AM   #849
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It is all depends on what is ahead of us. I think that we are heading into recession or already in it (based on many major High Tech companies are massively laid workforce like Tesla, Twitter, Google, Meta etc.) and Feds keep fighting inflation raising rates and slowing economy by doing so. The question is how long the recession is going to last as the world is in a major Geopolitical change and it is not possible to predict economic and financial future. Future of Humanity is also at stake. Russian Dictator threats should not be taken easily. So as usually LOL will be the one, who is going to save their nest egg and in my opinion it will not be easy with 80%-100% equities.


Can you define "SAVE" in your view from above opinion?

Thanks
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Old 01-30-2023, 10:23 AM   #850
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-20.46% at roughly 90/10
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Old 01-30-2023, 12:43 PM   #851
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[/B]

Can you define "SAVE" in your view from above opinion?

Thanks
"Save value of your portfolio" or even gain on your investments.We are in Stagflation and to save value of your portfolio we all think differently. There is no way we could predict what class of assets will gain and what will lose. However, many economists predict that stocks and RE will tank much more vs 2022, while land, PMs, energy and mining will go up with inflation and recession etc.
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Old 01-30-2023, 01:18 PM   #852
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"Save value of your portfolio" or even gain on your investments.We are in Stagflation and to save value of your portfolio we all think differently. There is no way we could predict what class of assets will gain and what will lose. However, many economists predict that stocks and RE will tank much more vs 2022, while land, PMs, energy and mining will go up with inflation and recession etc.
Thanks for your clarification. Saved could have meant lost forever or lost temporarily till markets turn around. Yes, with your views of stocks and recession on the horizon, portfolio will de-value for some time but still could be saved. I believe that is what you are saying.

Thanks
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