2022 sp500 prediction revisited.

[ducky911]

If you are looking for a financial adviser you might start your search here. Sadly I was in the crowded over 5000 group.


User Prediction
luckydude
2860
Alectoris
3631
Scratchy
4000
NW-Bound
4000
matjung
4150
Iggysmom
4200
RetireAge50
4247
Closet_Gamer
4300
jeroly
4300
gooddog
4300
GravitySucks
4400
Mr. Tightwad
4500
Magus
4500
Out-to-Lunch
4512
VanWinkle
4675
aja8888
4900
braumeister
4900
Chuckanut
4932
Bigdawg
4933
BatcherNCarolina
4991
donheff
5000
Car-Guy
5000
Golden sunsets
5004
karen1972
5050
corn18
5050
Out of Steam
5084
Dtail
5100
Kork13
5100
PatrickA5
5101
Gumby
5123
mrfeh
5147
Surfs_Up
5150
Helen
5150
clifp
5151
Live Free
5176
MichaelKnight
5180
teejayevans
5191
Born2Fish
5200
SoHan
5243
ducky911
5280
SecondCor521
5281
swaneesr
5290
38Chevy454
5300
tulak
5335
Taxman59
5338
aaronc879
5400
DektolMan
5433
jollystomper
5447
freedomatlast
5480
CRLLS
5481
mistermike40
5500
CincyDave
5569
ATXFIRE2034
5576
Tom52
5675
kgtest
5720
Fermion
6000
F.I.R.E User
6000
sengsational
6001

 

[audreyh1]

Can you post the link to the original thread?

 

[ducky911]

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/your-2022-s-and-p-prediction-112371.html

original thread

 

[m3bs]

I got out around inauguration day in 2021 at 3855. I missed the big runup, but it's right back at that level now. I'm in the camp that thinks there is more pain to come as inflation and interest rate hikes play out, so I'm not jumping back in yet. Those 4.5-5% CDs are looking more attractive...

 

[GravitySucks]

Well I almost had the big drop to 3300 called, not planning on the rebound to 4400 happening before the year ends.

 

[audreyh1]

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/your-2022-s-and-p-prediction-112371.html

original thread

Thanks much!

Wow, just two predictions under 4000, and here we are at 3865 and dropping.

Reading the old thread, there was lots of confidence early this year!

Of course no one expected four 0.75% interest hikes back to back plus another 0.5% for good measure this year.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I'm always too optimistic.

 

[tulak]

Another optimist. 5335. Not even close. Lol.

 

[sengsational]

If I would have gone with 2859, I'd have been much closer, but still employed the same "price is right" strategy.

 

[OldShooter]

Nobody can predict random.

 

[Al18]

You’ll see I predicted 3800 on the last page of the original thread. The SP500 closed today at 3817. What do I win?

 

[RetiredAt49]

What do I win?

We still have a couple more weeks left…

 

[NW-Bound]

From the original thread, posted on 3/17/2022:

If it's lower than it is today by end of the year, I owe everyone in this thread a drink!

On 3/17/2022, the S&P was at 4412. It closed earlier today at 3818.

So, what drink are we going to get? I'd much rather not get the drink and see the market back to 4412, but hey, a free drink is a consolation and I will take it.

By the way, the high point was on Jan 3 at 4797, and it went down from there.

 

[sengsational]

You’ll see I predicted 3800 on the last page of the original thread. The SP500 closed today at 3817. What do I win?

Your guess came in too late, although some may still award you with bragging rights.

I'll probably honor scratchy/NW.

 

[Al18]

S&P500 finished at 3839.5 for 2022.

Looks like my prediction of 3800 was the closest

 

[Taco]

The S&P started the year around 4800.

Your prediction was when the S&P was around 4200.
60% of the ~1000 point drop occurred before your prediction.
It cannot really be compared to all of those submitted at the beginning of the year.

 

[Al18]

I didn’t see any rules at the top of the thread

 

[Taco]

True. No rules.

I predict it will finish the year at 3839.

 

[jollystomper]

I'll probably honor scratchy/NW.

I agree. I want to sign up for their investing newsletters .

 

[Koolau]

I wish my Magic 8-Ball had numbers in it. I've found it to be good for most questions, so why not the S&P500?

 

[DrRoy]

True. No rules.

I predict it will finish the year at 3839.

 

[target2019]

Many people were saying this market would go up. I knew they were wrong. Some people say I'm smarter than all the predictorers. I said 3,839.56, so who's smarter than me?