4.5% is the updated SWR according to Bill Bengen

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by marko Same here. But DW has nieces and nephews who'll be faced with a huge "lottery winner's syndrome" challenge. It won't be pretty for a few of the ingrates. If any of them bothered to give me the time of day I might be able to coach them......(sigh)

My plan is to pick the nephew I like best and give it all to him. It's academic in any event, because I'm sure the young wife will outlive me. She can give it all to Lorenzo the pool boy.

[Totoro]

I have two nieces (sisters, 7&10) and a nephew (2).

The two nieces in particular have a lot of 'no-kids' relatives and decently middle-class grandparents with either a decent cash reserve or solid pensions, which in practice means they'll have several houses and quite a wad of cash coming their way, regardless of what I do (or have) in the end.

[karen1972]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man at 4.5% it has a fair chance of success about 50/50 I would think to make 30 years Year Start of Year Annual withdrawal Investable Annual % Return Closing Balance Yearly Inflation 2000 1,000,000.00 (45,000.00) 955,000.00 2.86% 982,313.00 3.40% 2001 982,313.00 (46,530.00) 935,783.00 0.47% 940,181.18 2.80% 2002 940,181.18 (47,832.84) 892,348.34 -6.78% 831,847.12 1.60% 2003 831,847.12 (48,598.17) 783,248.96 23.80% 969,662.21 2.30% 2004 969,662.21 (49,715.92) 919,946.29 12.27% 1,032,823.70 2.70% 2005 1,032,823.70 (51,058.25) 981,765.44 6.89% 1,049,409.08 3.40% 2006 1,049,409.08 (52,794.23) 996,614.85 14.38% 1,139,928.06 3.20% 2007 1,139,928.06 (54,483.65) 1,085,444.41 5.12% 1,141,019.17 2.80% 2008 1,141,019.17 (56,009.19) 1,085,009.98 -20.44% 863,233.94 3.80% 2009 863,233.94 (58,137.54) 805,096.40 20.75% 972,153.90 -0.40% 2010 972,153.90 (57,904.99) 914,248.91 12.83% 1,031,547.04 1.60% 2011 1,031,547.04 (58,831.47) 972,715.57 -9.20% 883,225.74 3.20% 2012 883,225.74 (60,714.08) 822,511.66 11.10% 913,810.46 2.10% 2013 913,810.46 (61,989.07) 851,821.38 15.80% 986,409.16 1.50% 2014 986,409.16 (62,918.91) 923,490.25 6.40% 982,593.63 1.60% 2015 982,593.63 (63,925.61) 918,668.02 -0.82% 911,134.94 0.10% 2016 911,134.94 (63,989.54) 847,145.40 9.20% 925,082.78 1.30% 2017 925,082.78 (64,821.40) 860,261.38             -7.0%

First thanks for this chart it was helpful to me. Looking at this it makes me wonder, doing FireCalc, I use the 3% inflation rule, but in theory, when the market goes through these massive drops maybe one thing that helps is that inflation was not 3%. The average of these 17 years had inflation at 2.17% vs 3% thus creating an additional buffer to the portfolio??

[googily]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro I have two nieces (sisters, 7&10) and a nephew (2). The two nieces in particular have a lot of 'no-kids' relatives and decently middle-class grandparents with either a decent cash reserve or solid pensions, which in practice means they'll have several houses and quite a wad of cash coming their way, regardless of what I do (or have) in the end.

I'm waiting for my nieces and nephews to get old enough to realize that being nice to and helping take care of old aunt googily might have some benefits.

[rayvt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by googily I'm waiting for my nieces and nephews to get old enough to realize that being nice to and helping take care of old aunt googily might have some benefits.

That'll never happen.

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

I'm rounding up to 5% when I finally retire.

[RobLJ]

I'm taking 3% for the next 3 years while I work online part-time (about 15 hours/week) since DW is hanging it up. Then 6.5% for 3 years until my SS (I'm assuming the portfolio value will go down), then back to 4.5% until DW hits full SS age, then 3.5-4%.
As Bergen, I think, indicates at less than 4% withdrawal rate most of us are likely to leave a big bequest to family or charity or the state, unless we hit very bad returns.
And I started in '94 with a 90-10 (not 2000, admittedly) and the portfolio did very very well, although of course I was contributing until 2 years ago, not withdrawing.

[teejayevans]

I’ve calculated the value of SS (how much I would need now to get SS payout), and include that as part of my retirement funds, then I take 4% of that, use it as a guideline, generally I’m 3%, one year 9%...I don’t sweat it.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobLJ I'm taking 3% for the next 3 years while I work online part-time (about 15 hours/week) since DW is hanging it up. Then 6.5% for 3 years until my SS (I'm assuming the portfolio value will go down), then back to 4.5% until DW hits full SS age, then 3.5-4%.

My withdrawal percentages have been pretty irregular too, up to almost 9%!! See below. I use the "% of 12/31 portfolio value" method, and I feel that 3.5% is reasonable for me, or maybe even 4% since I turn 70 next year. But here's what reality has been, for me:

2010: 2.6%
2011: 1.9%
2012: 2.1%
2013: 2.4%
2014: 1.7%
2015: 1.7% + 6.9% (dream home) = 8.6%
2016: 1.7%
2017: 1.6%

My SS began in 2014 so I haven't had to rely as much on my portfolio since then. In 2015 I bought my dream home which cost more than my old home, so the excess cost plus fix-up cost is where that 6.9% went.

When the next market crash descends upon us, I am SO ready.

[Honeyfill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia I'm rounding up to 5% when I finally retire.

I'm with Lawrence of Suburbia. 5% of investments yearly WR. I don't count home equity or social security. We are 60/58 so we can be a little extra aggressive. Our plan is to delay SS for 9 -10 years to max it out but we can always start early if the market tanks.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honeyfill We are 60/58 so we can be a little extra aggressive.

I guess so! If my AA was 118% of my portfolio I'd be aggressive too.

[Honeyfill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo I guess so! If my AA was 118% of my portfolio I'd be aggressive too.

:-) Good one. Just to be clear, our AA is 90/10 equities to bonds- our ages are 60/58.

[rayvt]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Honeyfill Our plan is to delay SS for 9 -10 years to max it out

Better look into the details a bit more.
The maximum you can delay is 8 years, 62 to 70.
Delayed credits stop at 70.

[Honeyfill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rayvt Better look into the details a bit more. The maximum you can delay is 8 years, 62 to 70. Delayed credits stop at 70.

Thanks for clearing that up. A lot of people forget that you cannot start SS until 62. My wife plans to start at at the age of 66 years and 10 months, 8 years and 4 months from now. I plan to start at 70, 9 years and 6 months from now.