$4 Gas - Here We Come

[Marshac]

Agreed, what concerns me is being able to get gas.
I just came from the garage to check fuel levels..I'm up near full, but I was prepared to go out and get some...My memory is still very strong of when we had shortages back when...

I bought 5 gallons at the Arco station today... while all of the other stations in town were $2.89+, they were still at $2.69. Did someone not check the voicemail this morning? "Add 20 cents!!!"

 

[greg]

Anyone want to guess which Q GDP growth goes flat?

OK! Last January, maybe the January before. To my mind, we have not been told the real CPI or GDP for quite some time. I think real inflation is running over 3% higher than we have been told . . . so . . . last January, maybe longer. And I'm being optimistic because I'm only including a small portion of the housing increases and a tiny bit of the oil price increases that the gov't refuses to include in their calculations.

--Greg

 

[TromboneAl]

When I lived in the SF Bay Area..many of us would line up at key spots in the suburbs and strangers would pull up and take us to downtown SF....they needed 3 in a car to take the sane lanes and avoid the Bay Bridge toll

Time out for a story. My wife and I used to do that when we lived in Oakland, and both worked in SF. One day a fancy car stops to pick us up. Just as we're getting into the car, my wife unknowingly steps in some dog poop. So we're in the car for a minute and it's "what is that smell!!!" Made for a long drive across the bridge.

 

[retire@40]

Filled up the tank tonight at $3.09 with a smile, a thank you, and a "have a good night" to the gas station owner.

 

[greg]

I just heard a rumor this PM from my tenant that NO is the only supertanker off-load port we have on the eastern side of the US. No wonder they released the reserves for use. Otherwise, we would have had refineries ready to go but no product to put thru. An American oil choke point if true. Keep an eye on when they're ready to take ships again.

--Greg

 

[Danny]

I just heard a rumor this PM from my tenant that NO is the only supertanker off-load port we have on the eastern side of the US. No wonder they released the reserves for use. Otherwise, we would have had refineries ready to go but no product to put thru. An American oil choke point if true. Keep an eye on when they're ready to take ships again.

--Greg

Greg, see posts 16 & 20...
The whole Gulf oil infrastructure appears to be in disarray for the time being...

• Louisiana Offshore Oil Port - docking facility for supertankers 28 miles offshore in the Gulf that is the main offloading point for supertankers bringing imported crude oil to the U.S. remains shut due to lack of power, but the company indicated on Tuesday that there was no serious damage. LOOP moves about 1 million barrels a day of oil, 10% of U.S. imports.

 

[brewer12345]

Releasing crude from the SPR is pretty much meaningless at this point. The problem is refining capacity and messed up transport infrastructure for refined products, not crude. Shows how desparate the administration is to show they "care" about the little people.

I would suggest to any of you who heat with oil or propane that it is time to fill up if you haven't already.

 

[sailor]

we blew through $4 last night - I've seen $5.59 per gallon in Atlanta suburbs.
This mornig (after the governor's ban) it back to "normal" $3.39 same station.

 

[justin]

We're seeing some shortages in Raleigh, NC. Stations closed, bags on pumps. Rumor has it that the pipelines that supply us will be flowing tomorrow, which means that gas may get to stations in 4-5 days. Got 5 gallons (half tank) this morning at $2.999. I don't really care what the price is, as long as I can get gas if I'm willing to pay the price. I happen to have an opportunity to make a lot of cash (not drug dealing) on Saturday for a few hours work. This requires driving 300 miles which will require gas. I can still make tons of money even if I have to pay $10/gallon, so I'll do it, unless our meddling governor decides to cap prices. Supply and demand will work at some point. Price caps set at artificially low levels will result in shortages (simple economics).

 

[moghopper]

we blew through $4 last night - I've seen $5.59 per gallon in Atlanta suburbs.
This mornig (after the governor's ban) it back to "normal" $3.39 same station.

DW and I have spent an average of $175/month on gas. I'm guessing that may work out to 70 gallons a month or so. I don't suspect that even a major rise is going to affect us that much - plus we'll do considerably less driving the last 3 months of the year.

Real problems will occur when people realize that most coffee is imported through New Orleans. I think I'll stock up today.

 

[Danny]

This picture is not from Bagdad...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1759825,00.html

 

[laurence]

I car pool, but DW's work is near a trolley station, my work is close enough to bicycle (~11 miles), so we can cut consumption a lot more than we already have if need be.

 

[Danny]

General Motors in Denial? Toyota realistic?

GM, Toyota Differ
On Future Direction
Of Gasoline Prices

By NEAL E. BOUDETTE
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 1, 2005 3:43 p.m.

DETROIT – General Motors Corp. said on Thursday that it expect gasoline prices to decline "significantly" by the end of the year after the recent spike in prices as a result of the hurricane damage to oil production facilities in the southern U.S.

Paul Ballew, GM's executive director of global market and industry analysis, said the car maker doesn't believe gasoline prices will remain above $3 a gallon.

"Let's be very clear about that. The markets don't believe they will and the forecasters don't believe they will," Mr. Ballew said in a conference call with reporters.

"If you look at the future and forward markets on in December, everybody anticipates that the constraint will be relieved and that gas prices will be coming back down rather significantly," he said.

The recent spike in wholesale gasoline prices to $2.60 to $2.70 "is abnormal relative to demand, relative to supply. It's being driven by the fact that we've taken 10% of our refining capacity off the market for the short term."

GM believes "the market in total is smarter than any of us individually and if you look at the market in total it expects prices to come back down rather significantly by year end," Mr. Ballew said.

In contrast to GM, a top executive from Toyota Motor Corp. said the Japanese car maker expects gas prices to rise.

"The cost of oil is going to continue to increase," Jim Press, president and chief operating officer of Toyota's U.S. sales unit. "In the long term and the short term."

Mr. Press said this view is based on the fact that demand for oil is rising and even before Hurricane Katrina U.S. refineries were operating at full capacity. "As we look forward, the fact is our country doesn't have the cushion in refining capability," Mr. Press said.

He added that oil companies are now reopening older oil wells they had previously abandoned. Since it will probably be more costly to get the remaining oil out of these wells, "they are investing capital for higher-cost oil," Mr. Press said.

 

[Marshac]

I car pool, but DW's work is near a trolley station, my work is close enough to bicycle (~11 miles), so we can cut consumption a lot more than we already have if need be. 

I got my vacation/sick time balance sheet today- I have >30 days of sick time stored up... I figure a few days without gas wouldn't be so horrible

 

[lswswein]

Didn't expect the high gas prices to last long - its too much of a panic situation.
Anyway the prices should come down / stabilize soon

Hurricane Katrina Update: LOOP Unloading First Tanker
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050901/16089.html?.v=1

that's the Louisiana Oil Port

-h

 

[Marshac]

Hurricane Katrina Update: LOOP Unloading First Tanker
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050901/16089.html?.v=1

Gas is high not for lack of oil, but rather for lack of refining capacity... as Bush said, 'those are factories that make gasoline'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050901/ts_nm/weather_katrina_refineries_dc

The government warned on Thursday that some U.S. refineries shut by Hurricane Katrina may not resume processing oil for several months ...
...
"Some refineries likely (will be) able to restart their operations within the next 1 to 2 weeks, while others will likely be down for a more extended period, possibly several months," the Energy Information Administration said.

The Energy Department's analytical arm said nine major oil refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi remained shut from the hurricane. Those refineries account for about 11 percent of total U.S. refining capacity.

"Unlike 2004's Hurricane Ivan, which affected oil production facilities and had a lasting impact on crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, it appears that Hurricane Katrina may have a more lasting impact on refinery production and the distribution system," the EIA said in its most recent update on the effects of the hurricane on the energy sector.

I fully expect this to be a very expensive winter.

 

[HFWR]

Sure glad he explained that...

 

[tryan]

Just hoping the $4 price is delayed until Oct. Once I am fire'd, who cares ... no more commute.

Yahooo! I can watch the commuters out my family room window.

 

[Alan]

Just hoping the $4 price is delayed until Oct.  Once I am fire'd, who cares ... no more commute.

A year ago I changed jobs and switched my 25 mile commute to a 3 mile commute.  My wife also used to have a 25 mile commute and she is now retired.  I switched my truck for a compact car and have felt pretty good about the small amount of gas I buy these days.  However, when I lived in Scotland 20 years ago I used to cycle 6 miles to work, up and down some BIG hills, so that my wife could have the 2 door sub-compact to drive the kids to school etc.

After moving here we bought bikes as it is a pedestrian friendly place with bike trails everywhere, and outdoor market style places where people go to eat and have coffee etc.  (not what we expected in a town 20 miles north of the airport in Houston)

If gas keeps on rising, I'll seriously have to consider cycling again.  May be when the weather cools down a little, but then I won't be able to come home for lunch so easliy ......

 

[Danny]

Alan - you're doing your part for sure. When you biked in Scotland did you wear anything under the kilt? or did you have a way to keep it from flapping in the breeze?

By the way I filled up tonight at 2.99 outside of Minneapolis - only car in the station... While there the BP gasoline truck driver was pumping more into the ground.
I put on my cub reporter's hat and found that:
1. Price will fluctuate because of global supply-demand (I made him promise they weren't doing any more gouging than they normally do)
2. BP gets the oil used in the Twin Cities out of wells in Montana - refined in Mandan North Dakota. Will not be short of gas.
3. Expect price to fall this week about .20
4. On way back from dinner the posted price was 2.89 ..darn it!

 

[Alan]

Alan - you're doing your part for sure. When you biked in Scotland did you wear anything under the kilt?  or did you have a way to keep it from flapping in the breeze?

I'll tell you - those 18 months living in Scotland (SW coast - Dumfries) were darn cold and wet. By the time we moved back to England, webbing had begun to grow between our fingers.

I filled up yesterday evening in Port Arthur, Texas for $2.49/gal and was very pleased to catch it that low. It will be 2 - 3 weeks at least before I need to fill up again so I'm hoping gas is flowing again by then.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

I'll tell you - those 18 months living in Scotland (SW coast - Dumfries) were darn cold and wet.  By the time we moved back to England, webbing had begun to grow between our fingers.

I filled up yesterday evening in Port Arthur, Texas for $2.49/gal and was very pleased to catch it that low.  It will be 2 - 3 weeks at least before I need to fill up again so I'm hoping gas is flowing again by then.

Just back from north Texas. On Tuesday I saw $2.43 gas. That was the low point. I filled up for the trip back at 2.49, then paid 2.79, then I crossed
into Illinois (Thursday) Everywhere regular was 3.19. I was stubborn
and drove on fumes but couldn't beat that, so I bought $20 worth
in a 30 gal. tank. Almost home I found it for 2.95 and filled up.

You could still buy for under $3.00 as of yesterday (northen Illinois).

JG

 

[Martha]

Welcome back John. Gas here is about 3.30 a gallon. Our supply is in large part locally refined from Canadian supply. From looking at DanTien's post, our price 150 miles north is considerable higher. No sense to that. Maybe I'll drive to Minneapolis for gas.

 

[Danny]

Mr. JG - some people wondered if you had gone down to NO to do some order restoring ala Dirty Harry with your friends S & W...

2.79 appearing at stations around Minneapolis...was 2.99 Friday...

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Yup, prices dropping here too. Where I paid $3.199 is now $2.999 and the news reports are that most stores have regular under $3 where before some stations were in the upper $3's 3-4 days ago.