Running_Man
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2006
- Messages
- 2,844
Having looked at the payouts for annuities on the Vanguard Website, I am at a loss to understand how the choice of an annuity with a 4% graded option is not underpriced. For a 55 year old man Vanguard (AIG I realize) would pay an initial amount of 4% annually and step up 4 percent per year with a 28 year guaranteed payout period. My assumption is that inflation should average 3-3.5% per year over the next 45 years. Firecalc shows only a 94% success rate for 4% withdrawls with a 75% stock component for just 30 years.
After just 9 years using the last nine years CPI as a benchmark the annuity would be paying 12% better than inflation as reported by the government. I really do not care what fees Vanguard or AIG think they will be making, I am looking at the potential payout for security vs alternatives and questioning that AIG is underpricing this financial instrument.
True enough in times of high inflation this would not be a great move however that would be the problem of all fixed instruments and this would be superior to most alternatives. In times of modest deflation the standard escalator would be a huge benefit. The excess of most years to the inflation rate is a reward that I would think would well be worth taking and makes me wonder how is this not superior to bonds as the fixed component of one's retirement portfolio?
After just 9 years using the last nine years CPI as a benchmark the annuity would be paying 12% better than inflation as reported by the government. I really do not care what fees Vanguard or AIG think they will be making, I am looking at the potential payout for security vs alternatives and questioning that AIG is underpricing this financial instrument.
True enough in times of high inflation this would not be a great move however that would be the problem of all fixed instruments and this would be superior to most alternatives. In times of modest deflation the standard escalator would be a huge benefit. The excess of most years to the inflation rate is a reward that I would think would well be worth taking and makes me wonder how is this not superior to bonds as the fixed component of one's retirement portfolio?