5 Year Review - How to Lose a Million Bucks

[stepford]

I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.

So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...

coulda, woulda, shoulda.

 

[pacergal]

You've done well.
Your last sentence tells all. If you can't sleep, you probably have the wrong investment allocation.

This past year, I have realized I needed a more conservative approach and made adjustments.

 

[Sunset]

Hindsight is wonderful.
Wish I had sold everything, including my clothes, borrowed from loansharks and bought Tesla options a couple of years ago...
I lost a 100's of Millions of dollars ...

 

[OldShooter]

My only question when looking back is whether I made the best decision I could at the time. @stepford, you made a decision similar to the decision most of us here made at the time -- to avoid taking 100% of the market risk. Decisions involve foreclosing options; by doing this wel foreclosed the option of to benefit 100% from any market rise. I'm still OK with that decision. No sting at all.

 

[friar1610]

I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.

So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...

coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Wow! This is just sooo different than how I look at things. But I guess the world would be a pretty dull place if we all thought alike, whether it be financially, politically, philosophically or any other way.

 

[Chuckanut]

You've done good. But, you were not perfect.

When I get my time machine working again, I will give you a lift back about 10 years. Then we will both be Billionaires today. However, the part I need will not be ready until at least 2162 so don't hold your breath. (Note to self: when traveling into the past bring extra parts that were not yet invented in the past.)

In the mean time, never let the perfect become the enemy of the good.

 

[davebarnes]

I foolishly did not show up in Mark Zuckerberg's dorm room and offer him $1000 for a share of stock which I then put into my Roth IRA.
Oh, well.

 

[FREE866]

I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.

So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...

coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Totally get why you would feel that way, but just think if you had only like 20% equity!??!?
That would be fetal position regret territory

 

[Car-Guy]

If I worried about all the things I could have (or even should have) done I'd never get any sleep.

 

[Spanky]

Hindsight is wonderful.
Wish I had sold everything, including my clothes, borrowed from loansharks and bought Tesla options a couple of years ago...
I lost a 100's of Millions of dollars ...

Haha. What I need to time travel for about a few minutes (or more) a few times of my life - that would enable me to make millions if not billions.

 

[Spanky]

I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.

So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...

coulda, woulda, shoulda.

It is not too late to recover your 'loss'. Start taking more risks, e.g., increased equity allocation or/and bitcoins - which is almost $20K now and estimated to be >200K by the end of 2021.

 

[WhenIsItTime]

My only question when looking back is whether I made the best decision I could at the time. @stepford, you made a decision similar to the decision most of us here made at the time -- to avoid taking 100% of the market risk. Decisions involve foreclosing options; by doing this wel foreclosed the option of to benefit 100% from any market rise. I'm still OK with that decision. No sting at all.

Agree!

 

[Spanky]

I foolishly did not show up in Mark Zuckerberg's dorm room and offer him $1000 for a share of stock which I then put into my Roth IRA.
Oh, well.

Choe, a graffiti artist, made over $200 million (from his options $38/share in 2012) for painting a wall at Facebook.

 

[Scratchy]

Be happy your equity allocation didn't have a big international component. The title of your post could have been "How to lose $1.5 million bucks"!

 

[jollystomper]

What a day to be worried about "ifs" and "buts"...

All of us would have a lot more money if we could go back in time with the knowledge we have today.

Just consider that at a bit over $3 million, even with not "gaining" anything more, you have still done better than 96% of the U.S. and even better on a world wide scale. Something to be thankful for.

 

[CardsFan]

Stepford -

I retired about the same time and have seen a similar gain, with a similar AA.

I see the glass [-]half full[/-] overflowing. I am amazed and thrilled that I can have a middle of the road AA, spend over $400k in 5 years and still have more than a million more than I started with.

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

What a day to be worried about "ifs" and "buts"...

All of us would have a lot more money if we could go back in time with the knowledge we have today.

Just consider that at a bit over $3 million, even with not "gaining" anything more, you have still done better than 96% of the U.S. and even better on a world wide scale. Something to be thankful for.

+1

Ya done good, Stepford. Be happy.

 

[travelover]

When I sold my house I sat on hundreds of thousands of dollars for a year in a money market account. If I'd had it fully in the market I'd have made a made a ton of money. As it turned out, a few days before I was to close on a new house, the market plunged and I was glad I had it securely in that money market. So, yeah it sucks not to be clairvoyant.

 

[11522914]

+1

Wow! This is just sooo different than how I look at things. But I guess the world would be a pretty dull place if we all thought alike, whether it be financially, politically, philosophically or any other way.

 

[Walt34]

Don't we all wish we were either clairvoyant or had access to a time machine. However one hard cold fact remains - I've never been so financially well off in my life than I am right now. So I must be doing something right.

 

[Toocold]

Just be glad you didn't sell all your stocks in March this year

 

[RunningBum]

IMO you learn what you can from "mistakes" in the past, see how you can prevent them in the future, and move on.

So your "mistake" was keeping half your money out of stocks. Do you really think you should go 100% in now? I wouldn't. Nor do I think you made a mistake by going 50/50. Time to move on.

 

[CSdot]

Just be glad you didn't sell all your stocks in March this year

I have a friend who did this. Felt he couldn't risk his nest egg in the market after it started falling. He jumped out a week or two into the 4 week collapse so he didn't lose the full 30% that the rest of us who remained invested experienced, but he also missed out when the rocket ignited and the market shot back up. To be honest, I wondered at the time whether he was the smart one, with me being the dummy watching my net worth drop, but now that that we have recovered and I am up 20% from the pre-collapse high, I am very happy I rode it out.

 

[audreyh1]

Don't we all wish we were either clairvoyant or had access to a time machine. However one hard cold fact remains - I've never been so financially well off in my life than I am right now. So I must be doing something right.

Yeah - great point! We feel very blessed. So what if it could have been more?

 

[travelover]

Yeah - great point! We feel very blessed. So what if it could have been more?

Indeed. I feel so lucky to have "enough". Wanting more is what ruins your life.