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5 Year Review - How to Lose a Million Bucks
11-26-2020, 10:48 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Ventura County
Posts: 1,431
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5 Year Review - How to Lose a Million Bucks
I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.
So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...
coulda, woulda, shoulda.
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11-26-2020, 10:54 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 5,775
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You've done well.
Your last sentence tells all. If you can't sleep, you probably have the wrong investment allocation.
This past year, I have realized I needed a more conservative approach and made adjustments.
__________________
Give a Man a fish, he will eat for a day.
Teach a Man to fish, he will eat for a lifetime.
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11-26-2020, 10:56 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 16,972
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Hindsight is wonderful.
Wish I had sold everything, including my clothes, borrowed from loansharks and bought Tesla options a couple of years ago...
I lost a 100's of Millions of dollars ...
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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11-26-2020, 11:04 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,308
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My only question when looking back is whether I made the best decision I could at the time. @stepford, you made a decision similar to the decision most of us here made at the time -- to avoid taking 100% of the market risk. Decisions involve foreclosing options; by doing this wel foreclosed the option of to benefit 100% from any market rise. I'm still OK with that decision. No sting at all.
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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11-26-2020, 11:24 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 1,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepford
I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.
So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...
coulda, woulda, shoulda.
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Wow! This is just sooo different than how I look at things. But I guess the world would be a pretty dull place if we all thought alike, whether it be financially, politically, philosophically or any other way.
__________________
friar1610
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11-26-2020, 11:26 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,134
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You've done good. But, you were not perfect.
When I get my time machine working again, I will give you a lift back about 10 years. Then we will both be Billionaires today. However, the part I need will not be ready until at least 2162 so don't hold your breath. (Note to self: when traveling into the past bring extra parts that were not yet invented in the past.)
In the mean time, never let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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11-26-2020, 11:29 AM
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#7
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gone traveling
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Berkeley, Denver, CO, USA
Posts: 1,406
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I foolishly did not show up in Mark Zuckerberg's dorm room and offer him $1000 for a share of stock which I then put into my Roth IRA.
Oh, well.
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11-26-2020, 11:30 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepford
I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.
So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...
coulda, woulda, shoulda.
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Totally get why you would feel that way, but just think if you had only like 20% equity!??!?
That would be fetal position regret territory
__________________
Retired 1/6/2017 at 50 years old
Immensely grateful
“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”—Warren Buffett
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11-26-2020, 11:30 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
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If I worried about all the things I could have (or even should have) done I'd never get any sleep.
__________________
20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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11-26-2020, 11:33 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Hindsight is wonderful.
Wish I had sold everything, including my clothes, borrowed from loansharks and bought Tesla options a couple of years ago...
I lost a 100's of Millions of dollars ...
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Haha. What I need to time travel for about a few minutes (or more) a few times of my life - that would enable me to make millions if not billions.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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11-26-2020, 11:40 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepford
I ER'd just about 5 years ago, and by most standards I've done OK. Started with around $2M at the end of 2015 and now have a bit over 3. But, I've done that with a conservative AA of around 50/50. During those 5 years the equity half of that has roughly doubled (S&P 500 up 90%, some other holdings slightly better). The bond/cash half, however, has returned 10-15% in that time.
So I reach the inescapable conclusion that my conservative approach has cost me about a million dollars over those 5 years. Classic "glass half empty" view of the situation, but it still stings a bit. Granted that I probably wouldn't have slept during those 5 years if I'd gone with the 100% equity allocation that would have given me ~$4M today, but still...
coulda, woulda, shoulda.
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It is not too late to recover your 'loss'. Start taking more risks, e.g., increased equity allocation or/and bitcoins - which is almost $20K now and estimated to be >200K by the end of 2021.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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11-26-2020, 11:43 AM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 441
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
My only question when looking back is whether I made the best decision I could at the time. @stepford, you made a decision similar to the decision most of us here made at the time -- to avoid taking 100% of the market risk. Decisions involve foreclosing options; by doing this wel foreclosed the option of to benefit 100% from any market rise. I'm still OK with that decision. No sting at all.
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Agree!
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11-26-2020, 11:52 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes
I foolishly did not show up in Mark Zuckerberg's dorm room and offer him $1000 for a share of stock which I then put into my Roth IRA.
Oh, well.
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Choe, a graffiti artist, made over $200 million (from his options $38/share in 2012) for painting a wall at Facebook.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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11-26-2020, 11:57 AM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 394
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Be happy your equity allocation didn't have a big international component. The title of your post could have been "How to lose $1.5 million bucks"!
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11-26-2020, 12:51 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,096
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What a day to be worried about "ifs" and "buts"...
All of us would have a lot more money if we could go back in time with the knowledge we have today.
Just consider that at a bit over $3 million, even with not "gaining" anything more, you have still done better than 96% of the U.S. and even better on a world wide scale. Something to be thankful for.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - "This Happy Feeling, Going Round and Round!" (GQ)
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11-26-2020, 01:17 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
Posts: 3,891
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Stepford -
I retired about the same time and have seen a similar gain, with a similar AA.
I see the glass half full overflowing. I am amazed and thrilled that I can have a middle of the road AA, spend over $400k in 5 years and still have more than a million more than I started with.
__________________
If your not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space.
Never slow down, never grow old!
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11-26-2020, 01:32 PM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jollystomper
What a day to be worried about "ifs" and "buts"...
All of us would have a lot more money if we could go back in time with the knowledge we have today.
Just consider that at a bit over $3 million, even with not "gaining" anything more, you have still done better than 96% of the U.S. and even better on a world wide scale. Something to be thankful for.
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+1
Ya done good, Stepford. Be happy.
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11-26-2020, 01:45 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,328
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When I sold my house I sat on hundreds of thousands of dollars for a year in a money market account. If I'd had it fully in the market I'd have made a made a ton of money. As it turned out, a few days before I was to close on a new house, the market plunged and I was glad I had it securely in that money market. So, yeah it sucks not to be clairvoyant.
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11-26-2020, 02:07 PM
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#19
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 770
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+1
Quote:
Originally Posted by friar1610
Wow! This is just sooo different than how I look at things. But I guess the world would be a pretty dull place if we all thought alike, whether it be financially, politically, philosophically or any other way.
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__________________
you interpret daily life according to your ideas of what is possible or not possible - Seth Speaks
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11-26-2020, 02:17 PM
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#20
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,290
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Don't we all wish we were either clairvoyant or had access to a time machine. However one hard cold fact remains - I've never been so financially well off in my life than I am right now. So I must be doing something right.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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