67 % Chance Of A Crash

[Blue Collar Guy]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-warns-p-500-131110712.html

Dont these people know that this kind of headline makes me uncomfortable? I know all the stuff about "well if you cant handle a crash you have the wrong Asset Allocation."

I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones.

Anyone else notice the increase of Doom and Gloom articles?

 

[teejayevans]

I consider that a good sign...we are overdue for a correction, but corrections are not crashes.

 

[Fermion]

What amazes me is there is a 33% chance of not a crash. There is a 33% chance we have reached a permanently high plateau.

 

[ejman]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-warns-p-500-131110712.html

Dont these people know that this kind of headline makes me uncomfortable? I know all the stuff about "well if you cant handle a crash you have the wrong Asset Allocation."

I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones.

Anyone else notice the increase of Doom and Gloom articles?

Actually, I consider it a good sign when there are plenty of Doom and Gloom articles. I think the time to be really concerned is when everything looks rosy and all the articles tell you that the only way is UP!UP!UP! BUY! BUY! BUY! That really scares me

 

[W2R]

Well, if we just fully, completely, implicitly accept that markets are going to go up and down, and that is the way of the world, then we shouldn't get too excited at prolonged bull markets or too fearful of the next crash.

OK, that's NOT human nature. But we shouldn't.

 

[HadEnuff]

There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.

 

[pb4uski]

Click-bait BS.

 

[friar1610]

Click-bait BS.

+1

I got tricked into going to Market Watch today to chase a piece of financial porn referred to elsewhere. Whether you want the market to crash or soar, you can find a couple of articles supporting that view on MW!

 

[NW-Bound]

...I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones...

Oh come on BCG! Are you not the guy who has nice, nice pension that he can live on, and the stash is just money for the pleasure of counting it?

How 'bout me, a guy who has no pension, and still has 1 year to even claim early SS? Yeah, how about me?

And I always look how my stash is doing, through thick and thin, during the 2003 market crash as well as the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Every day. Never fail.

Perversely, I got a thrill out of it. Look at how cheap those stocks get! Wow, who would have thunk some stocks that were at $100 now went for $10? And they didn't even have anything to do with the financial sector. Fun times!

 

[bobandsherry]

Similar story of doom and gloom in Dec 2015, complete with 6 charts to prove it.
These 6 compelling charts make the case for a stock market correction in 2016

And another tale of woe in 2014
Is a stock market correction overdue? - The Tell - MarketWatch

And another similar story of eminent doom in 2013.
Stocks 'need to be corrected'

And these aren't isolated stories... I suppose, say it often enough and you'll eventually you'll be right and then ignore how many times you were wrong.

 

[Texas Proud]

There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.

4 to 6 billion years...

Close enough for you?

 

[sheldon cornped]

Gotta love that Yahoo. I'm still waiting for the explanation of why the world didn't end on Saturday.

 

[street]

So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.

 

[Major Tom]

My goodness. A 5% correction is nothing.

 

[RenoJay]

So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.

The average bull market lasts around 4 years and average bear market (20% drop from peak to trough) lasts around 18 months. Regarding "time to get back to break even", I'm not sure.

 

[dallas27]

With a 55% margin of error. Real statistics don't ever stop with one number.

 

[RobbieB]

OMG, yes sell everything!

Buy gold, diamonds, US dollars and Euros equally and keep everything in the mattress.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

87% of the time a wild guess will sound better if it has an actual number attached to it. Picking any number will do, try it, it's fun, and can increase your profits 68% if done right.

 

[Fermion]

I dunno, 81% of the time these threads have been at least 44% correct at predicting market swings of 1% to 15% (in those years which have a 73% at having significant volatility).

I am kind of convinced of something now. Well, 52% convinced.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

I consider that a good sign...we are overdue for a correction, but corrections are not crashes.

OK thats positive. I can live with that.

What amazes me is there is a 33% chance of not a crash. There is a 33% chance we have reached a permanently high plateau.

This is the kind of positive enery I like.

Actually, I consider it a good sign when there are plenty of Doom and Gloom articles. I think the time to be really concerned is when everything looks rosy and all the articles tell you that the only way is UP!UP!UP! BUY! BUY! BUY! That really scares me

OK this also is more uplifting

Well, if we just fully, completely, implicitly accept that markets are going to go up and down, and that is the way of the world, then we shouldn't get too excited at prolonged bull markets or too fearful of the next crash.

OK, that's NOT human nature. But we shouldn't.

Lol, I always need an excuse to become excited.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.

Yeah, Hopefully after Ive been gone for a while.

Click-bait BS.

When I saw Goldman-Sachs I thought things were going to happen by 4PM, they tricked me.

+1

I got tricked into going to Market Watch today to chase a piece of financial porn referred to elsewhere. Whether you want the market to crash or soar, you can find a couple of articles supporting that view on MW!

How they get away with this stuff for so long amazes me.

Oh come on BCG! Are you not the guy who has nice, nice pension that he can live on, and the stash is just money for the pleasure of counting it?

How 'bout me, a guy who has no pension, and still has 1 year to even claim early SS? Yeah, how about me?

And I always look how my stash is doing, through thick and thin, during the 2003 market crash as well as the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Every day. Never fail.

Perversely, I got a thrill out of it. Look at how cheap those stocks get! Wow, who would have thunk some stocks that were at $100 now went for $10? And they didn't even have anything to do with the financial sector. Fun times!

Knowing you are without a pension and still 1 year from Soc Sec, I had you in mind when I was trying to ward off any down slide.

Similar story of doom and gloom in Dec 2015, complete with 6 charts to prove it.
These 6 compelling charts make the case for a stock market correction in 2016

And another tale of woe in 2014
Is a stock market correction overdue? - The Tell - MarketWatch

And another similar story of eminent doom in 2013.
Stocks 'need to be corrected'

And these aren't isolated stories... I suppose, say it often enough and you'll eventually you'll be right and then ignore how many times you were wrong.

I agree they will eventually be right, then they will be the noontime guess star on TV that predicted the crash.

4 to 6 billion years...

Close enough for you?

OK , this is a time line I can deal with.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

Gotta love that Yahoo. I'm still waiting for the explanation of why the world didn't end on Saturday.

I went to the cemetery on Saturday. It would have been too ironic if it ended then.

So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.

I think what RenoJay said see below

My goodness. A 5% correction is nothing.

Yeah, they use terror terms and then smooth it out to a 5 %.

The average bull market lasts around 4 years and average bear market (20% drop from peak to trough) lasts around 18 months. Regarding "time to get back to break even", I'm not sure.

We can tough that out.

With a 55% margin of error. Real statistics don't ever stop with one number.

True lets not let numbers and facts stand in the way.

OMG, yes sell everything!

Buy gold, diamonds, US dollars and Euros equally and keep everything in the mattress.

My Mattress is already lumpy.

87% of the time a wild guess will sound better if it has an actual number attached to it. Picking any number will do, try it, it's fun, and can increase your profits 68% if done right.

Hahahahah +!

I dunno, 81% of the time these threads have been at least 44% correct at predicting market swings of 1% to 15% (in those years which have a 73% at having significant volatility).

I am kind of convinced of something now. Well, 52% convinced.

Well said.

I managed to have a wonderful time responding to all follow up posts, and did it in only 3 posts ty everyone.

 

[DrRoy]

I consider that a good sign.

+1. The more people that think there is a crash coming, the less likely it is to happen. Market tops occur when few people expect it, not when lots are predicting it.

 

[Andre1969]

So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.

I've only been investing seriously since the late 90's, so I only have the 2000-02 period and the Great Recession to go by. But, in each case, I was made whole again within about two years. It would have taken longer, but I kept on investing during the bad times, taking advantage of "fire sale" prices.

To put a dollar amount on it, here's how the 2000-02 period played out...
2000: lost $2,483
2001: lost $20,252
2002: lost $15,231
2003: gained $15,710
2004: gained $21,361

Here's how the "Great Recession" went...
2008: lost $175,544
2009: gained $130,871
2010: gained $98,471

I do remember two other quick drops though, that had me worried. The first came in May of 2010. I had probably been "made whole" again by April of that year, from the "Great Recession", but then there was a quick snap back where I dropped about 15%. That had me worried, that we were going to crash again. June and July were also down months, but the bulk of the damage was in May. But then in August it came roaring back, and by September/October I was probably flush again.

The other was in 2011. The market seemed to bounce around a lot early that year. I kept hitting new highs, but then there would be a fairly substantial pullback. Then finally, I peaked out in July, but then lost about 14% in a month. 2011 marked the last year I actually lost money, although it was only $628. By that time I had about $620K invested, so it was hardly noticeable...just annoying after the nice comeback in 2009-10. I'd say I was flush again by Feb/Mar of 2012, which proved to be yet another great year.

 

[HadEnuff]

There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.

4 to 6 billion years...

Close enough for you?

FireCalc says I may run out of money before then...