|
|
10-18-2018, 09:31 PM
|
#1
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,526
|
A bubble brewing
I haven't seen where this has been posted. I don't have a lot of comment on the article but that I beleive it will happen. I wish I wouldn't read these prediction article. LOL
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...Eqb?ocid=edgsp
Mod edit - a snippet from the linked article
Quote:
The U.S. household wealth boom since the Great Recession is a sham, a farce and a gigantic lie that is tricking everyone into believing that happy days are here again even though the engines that are driving it are bubbles that are going to burst and cause a crisis that will be even worse than the 2008 crash,”
|
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
10-18-2018, 11:15 PM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
|
Well , down at the Yacht Club, membership roister is full with a waiting list for the first time in about 20 years. Given that , I see lot's of new high end cars, and very few new boats, so even among those loaded with $$$$$, empirical evidence is mixed for all but the so called 1 % IMO.
Not much you can do. Sandbag around your investment portfolio ? , and give up potential gains like me ? Comes down to your real risk tolerance.
|
|
|
10-18-2018, 11:52 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
The article has an interesting chart showing the household net worth at an all-time high of 5x the GDP.
No wonder people feel the need to "blow the dough" all over the place. They are just trying to bring that curve down to the comfortable range.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 01:50 AM
|
#4
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Tucson
Posts: 135
|
The economy has been out of wack since 07. The cheap money means businesses have refinanced their debt and we have cheap house loans. There can’t be a normal rotation anymore. If a crash occurs President Trump will introduce a few trillion in infrastructure improvements.
The real problem is the national debt and the move away from the dollar as the worlds money. These charts don’t apply.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 05:18 AM
|
#5
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Posts: 382
|
There's always a bubble forming, then bursting. That's pretty much how markets work when you've got a herd of emotional monkeys chasing the next hot thing (that would be humans ). And giving data from only the last 20 years is really weak - how about the other crashes seen during the 20th century? When this "indicator" showed nothing of the sort? And how many crashes has this "expert" predicted since 2008 that never happened?
Gloom and doom always nets eyeballs. If this "everything" bubble is really happening, what should we do about it? I see no concrete advice, just crying wolf.
And it's really easy now to criticize the Fed for their "easy money" policies. In 2008 we were looking down the barrel of a second Great Depression, they did what they could to prevent that. I don't recall any of these brilliant talking heads having a better idea to prevent worldwide economic collapse.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 06:52 AM
|
#6
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,526
|
For me I'm going to do nothing that is what I have done and I have survived nicely. I will hunker down and weather the storm.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 06:59 AM
|
#7
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Dallas
Posts: 1,155
|
I am the one who believes in "creative distruction". We need to let "free market" work it's way out of the next crash rather than softening the blow. Every time we bail out market for their reckless behavior, we promote more of it. It's like preventing the wild fires.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 08:11 AM
|
#8
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by pjigar
I am the one who believes in "creative distruction". We need to let "free market" work it's way out of the next crash rather than softening the blow. Every time we bail out market for their reckless behavior, we promote more of it. It's like preventing the wild fires.
|
And when politicians "let things happen" there will be glaciers in Miami.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 02:10 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by street
For me I'm going to do nothing that is what I have done and I have survived nicely. I will hunker down and weather the storm.
|
That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.
Some are better prepared than others.
Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 03:05 PM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.
Some are better prepared than others.
Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.
|
The story about that house was incredible!
Yup. Either one is ready - - - or not. When the inevitable happens, we'll know who was in what camp.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 03:13 PM
|
#11
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,526
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.
Some are better prepared than others.
Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.
|
I like that analogy very nice!
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 03:39 PM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,353
|
I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.
The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 05:30 PM
|
#13
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,555
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Badger
The story about that house was incredible!
Yup. Either one is ready - - - or not. When the inevitable happens, we'll know who was in what camp.
|
Yes, spend an extra $30K for hurricane hardening, and look how he was rewarded! A house still standing, and no noisy neighbors (for now, until they start to rebuild their weaker houses).
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 08:08 PM
|
#14
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.
The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.
|
Yes, the market has always bounced back in the past. And if you leave your stash alone, it will come back too, provided that it is not loaded with things like dot-coms in the past, or bitcoins at the present.
But, but, but history has shown that the market may take a sweet time to do so, something like 10 years easily. If you draw on your stash for living expenses, you are by definition not leaving it alone.
And if a person has too high a WR while the market goes down and stays stagnant, his stash will go down and down. Maybe even gets obliterated.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 09:29 PM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by street
I haven't seen where this has been posted. I don't have a lot of comment on the article but that I beleive it will happen. I wish I wouldn't read these prediction article. LOL
|
I suggest you sell everything. Since the $ will be worthless, buy dried food, canned food, non-gmo seeds, ammo,things that process ammo, and plenty of fuel if you live in cold climates. Then you will feel better reading these articles.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 09:38 PM
|
#16
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,899
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
I suggest you sell everything. Since the $ will be worthless, buy dried food, canned food, non-gmo seeds, ammo,things that process ammo, and plenty of fuel if you live in cold climates. Then you will feel better reading these articles.
|
No! Not " non-gmo seeds". For survival, GMO seeds are good. They are fertile, and produce clones of the parent plants.
It is the traditional hybrids that you want to avoid. The seeds of an F-1 hybrid are often infertile (like a mule), and if not, they produce plants that are different from (and often inferior to) the parent.
Oh yeah - sell everything.
-ERD50
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 09:57 PM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,951
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
No! Not " non-gmo seeds". For survival, GMO seeds are good. They are fertile, and produce clones of the parent plants.
It is the traditional hybrids that you want to avoid. The seeds of an F-1 hybrid are often infertile (like a mule), and if not, they produce plants that are different from (and often inferior to) the parent.
Oh yeah - sell everything.
-ERD50
|
Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.
At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 10:12 PM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.
At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
|
In the mean time, pick up some shares of Monsanto and ConAgra, just in case the Stock market Zombie Apocalypse doesn't happen. That way you have a hedge.
|
|
|
10-19-2018, 10:47 PM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 4,032
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.
At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
|
Don’t worry, I sell you mine. I have tons of seedlings sprouted out of my worm bin. Great environment for starting seeds.
__________________
Just another day in paradise
|
|
|
10-20-2018, 08:11 AM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter
I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.
The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.
|
But, but, this time, it's gonna be different!!!! NOT.
Also, every time the clown went down, it came back larger. Every time. Yeah, might take a while, but that's to be expected.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|