Re: A little obituary realism
A little further thought...it's always good to rethink the plans. There is certainly a thing as planning too conservatively.
I used the word insurance again, and using a "100% safe" withdrawal rate through age 95 may be paying very high premiums with low deductibles to ensure a comfortable late life in case of longevity.
Perhaps we're sacrificing too much from the early phases of retirement because of fear of living to 90+ and outliving our dough.
I suppose the question is: what are the alternatives? Some random ideas:
- Take 80% or 70% "safe" SWR's; in most historical cases you have money left, anyway
- Use historical returns the other way around to determine how long on average (or other statistical measure) a given withdrawal rate will last
- Plan to buy annuities at age 70, 75 or perhaps when health turns south and the active days are over. This way the annuity underwriter assumes the longevity risk and you assume inflation risk. This leaves no estate, but I think most of us think it would be ideal to run out of money just as we die (if we could be absolutely sure of not shorting our lifespans or money).
For now the "buy annuities" plan sounds promising. I sort of liked the Die Broke idea, but I have a feeling I'll do better investing my own money than buying an annuity. (Obviously the annuity companies do, too as they plan to make money on my annuity.) A hybrid plan may allow for higher withdrawals earlier in ER with 'guaranteed' income for life after a certain point. (Although before your buy the annuity you won't know how much income.)
If I weren't tired I might try running Firecalc for shorter withdrawal periods and then try different exercises (average, lowest, overall worst case) with terminal balances to try to determine likely annuity income based on using the terminal balance to buy annuities.
-----
One last thought: Cut-Throat, are you also checking the causes of death? I wouldn't think we would factor deaths due to accident or murder into our ER plans. Smoking habits, drinking habits, weight and physical activity probably play a factor in obit deaths and our lifespans. Too bad the obits don't mention whether the people were happily RE'd.