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01-25-2009, 02:40 PM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,660
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Hmmm, could be a good time to buy some shares of HSY (Hershey)!
You gals are too much. Chocolate, chocolate....and red wine to go with it....and there goes my Wednesday weigh-in....will have to get under the old chair and hide but hey, at least I'll feel better, temporarily, about the economy.
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01-25-2009, 02:41 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,401
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01-25-2009, 03:50 PM
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#43
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh
What's a girl to do?
Here, no calories!
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Whereabouts.jpg
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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01-29-2009, 08:57 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
Sigh.
I'm of a mind that there are too many random, interconnected influences, from the tiny to the gargantuan, on the world economy, to allow generalization from the 1930's, the 1970's, or any other period. The time we are in is unique to itself, and will play out accordingly.
I wish I could believe otherwise, since that might allow me to grasp at some theory that'll tell me what to do next about my family's finances. The fact is, I have no more clue than I did at age 21. All I can do is hope the time-honored strategies that I already knew about back then (work hard, LBYM) and learned about years later (DCA) won't be undone by some unpredictable event, or set of well-meant policies.
Wait, they already have been undone to some extent.
Amethyst, feeling discouraged. (I think I need chocolate).
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I recently ran across this ballad from Scorpions, "Send me an angel", with soothing lyrics to me.
"The wise man said just find your place
In the eye of the storm
Seek the roses along the way
Just beware of the thorns
Here I am
Will you send me an angel
Here I am
In the land of the morning star"
Curiously, the German band's songs were all in English and the band was known in the 80s as a heavy-metal hard rock band, not at all my style. However, the lead Klaus Meine is older than myself (60 vs 52), and has now mellowed to the point where I can enjoy his music.
PS. Not being a religious type, I also found out that Lucifer is the Latin word for the Morningstar.
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01-30-2009, 06:46 AM
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#45
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst
Sigh.
I'm of a mind that there are too many random, interconnected influences, from the tiny to the gargantuan, on the world economy, to allow generalization from the 1930's, the 1970's, or any other period. The time we are in is unique to itself, and will play out accordingly.
I wish I could believe otherwise, since that might allow me to grasp at some theory that'll tell me what to do next about my family's finances. The fact is, I have no more clue than I did at age 21. All I can do is hope the time-honored strategies that I already knew about back then (work hard, LBYM) and learned about years later (DCA) won't be undone by some unpredictable event, or set of well-meant policies.
Wait, they already have been undone to some extent.
Amethyst, feeling discouraged. (I think I need chocolate).
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I couldn't agree more. It seems like we have been waiting forever for the economy to recover and sometimes I wonder if we will ever have another strong bull market.
We aren't guaranteed that future market behavior will resemble past market behavior... but it is all we have to go on. So, we wait, and hope, and wonder if our faith in the market is justified or not. We quietly move articles on the Efficient Market to the bottom of the stack of investing articles we have collected, and say nothing. We stay up late trying to figure out what will happen, only to conclude that we don't have sufficient information.
Two certainties occur to me.
First, after economic events unfold, they will seem like the obvious consequences and we will wonder why we ever doubted and wondered.
Second, we will get through this, no matter how formidable the challenges. So, might as well enjoy life along the way. Let's hear it for stopping to smell the roses, and/or a "party on" mentality along the way! Mardi Gras is February 24th this year.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-30-2009, 09:45 AM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,204
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I heard a talking head say something like this. The economy will recover. The consumer will start spending. Cars wear out. Newlyweds wed. Kids grow. As the layoffs taper off, and those with jobs feel more secure, they will begin to spend.
I still think the price of oil is a major factor. If it stays low or reasonable then I think we will have a somewhat normal recovery. It it spikes back high, then I don't think it bodes well for a recovery. I think oil acts just like the feds fund rates as far as clamping down on the economy. However, currently, I don't see anything on the horizon that changes my current outlook.
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