A Look At The Numbers: The market/economy over the last year

[thefed]

He's a by-the-numbers look at the stock market and the economy since the eight-day crash one year ago:

• $11.2 trillion: Total losses in the stock market from the Dow's peak in October 2007 to the March 2009 bottom.
• $4.6 trillion: Total gains in the stock market since March 9.
• 6: The number of the 10 worst point drops in the 113-year history of the Dow that occurred in 2008. The 777-point drop on Sept. 29, 2008, ranks No. 1.
• 3: The number of the 10 worst percentage drops that occurred in 2008. The Sept. 29 decline of 9 percent is the third-biggest behind 22.6 percent on Oct. 19, 1987, and 10 percent on April 14, 2000.
• 92 percent: Decrease in Citigroup Inc.'s share price from Oct. 10, 2008, ($13.90) to March 9 ($1.05).
• 341 percent: Increase in Citigroup's share price from March 9 to Friday's close of $4.63.
• 18-20: The historical average for the Volatility Index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, also known as the VIX, or "Fear Index."
• 89: Where the VIX peaked last October.
• 23: Where the VIX was on Friday.
• 16 percent: The amount by which the Dow's closing level on Friday was higher than its average close the previous 200 days. Earlier this month the number hit 20 percent, the highest since the early 1980s.
• $6.5 trillion: Value of assets in stock mutual funds at end of 2007.
• $3.7 trillion: Value at the end of 2008.
• $4.5 trillion: Value at the end of August.
• -$72 billion: Net cash flow (money put in minus money taken out) for stock mutual funds in October 2008.
• -$25 billion: Net cash flow in March.
• $4 billion: Net cash flow in August.
• $9: The amount, out of every $10 investors put into mutual funds in August, that went into bond funds.
• $855.40: The price of an ounce of gold on Oct. 10, 2008.
• $1,048.60: The price of an ounce of gold on Friday.
• 6.2 percent: Unemployment rate a year ago.
• 9.8 percent: Unemployment rate today.
• 95.2: Consumer confidence two years ago. Reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth.
• 25.3: Consumer confidence in February — record low.
• 53.1: Consumer confidence today.
• 2.8 percent: Decline in retail sales in October and December 2008.
• 2.7 percent: Increase in retail sales in August.
• 4.75 percent: Federal funds rate two years ago.
• 1 percent: Fed funds rate last October.
• 0 - 0.25 percent: Fed funds rate today.
• 4.81 percent: London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), the amount banks charge each other to borrow money for three months, at its peak, on Oct. 10, 2008.
_0.28 percent: Three-month LIBOR rate Friday.
• -0.5 percent: Personal savings rate in 2005 as home prices were soaring.
• 6.9 percent: Personal savings rate in May.
• $975 billion: Credit card debt held by Americans last September.
• $899 billion: Credit card debt held at the end of August, down 8 percent.
• 7 million: Home resales in 2005, a record year.
• 4.5 million: Home resales in January at annual rate.
• 5.1 million: Home resales in August at annual rate.
• $245,000: Median price of homes sold in 2006 — record high.
• $213,000: Median price of homes sold last October.
• $195,000: Median price of homes sold in August.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091010/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_by_the_numbers

 

[clifp]

Very interesting. Did you compile those numbers yourself or from another source?

 

[Westernskies]

Great post, thefed! Where did you get these #'s? It would be interesting to track them on a regular (quarterly?) basis.

 

[REWahoo]

Looks like it is from an article by the Associated Press: The Great Recession: The numbers tell the story - Yahoo! News

 

[thefed]

Looks like it is from an article by the Associated Press: The Great Recession: The numbers tell the story - Yahoo! News

you are correct. i should've cited this article.

 

[Ronstar]

Thanks for the great info!

• $9: The amount, out of every $10 investors put into mutual funds in August, that went into bond funds.

This amount of mutual funds going into bonds really stuns me

 

[Bikerdude]

Thanks for the great info!




This amount of mutual funds going into bonds really stuns me

People are looking at a better yield for their MM dollars. Not ready to buy stocks.

 

[deserat]

"• 92 percent: Decrease in Citigroup Inc.'s share price from Oct. 10, 2008, ($13.90) to March 9 ($1.05).
• 341 percent: Increase in Citigroup's share price from March 9 to Friday's close of $4.63."

Good example above of percentages being misleading - Citigroup is still down 80% or so from Oct 2008 - if you had that stock then, you are down 80% even if it rebounded 341% from its low.

Also, very interesting the several indications of the wealth destruction that occurred. For some of us that was real money, not just 'paper' wealth.

Doesn't look like people are that confident either - 50+ on the indicator is still way below the 90+.

Thanks for posting!

 

[Free To Canoe]

• $245,000: Median price of homes sold in 2006 — record high.
• $213,000: Median price of homes sold last October.
• $195,000: Median price of homes sold in August.

Thanks for the post. I am surprised that housing values are not lower.

Free to canoe

 

[thefed]

• $245,000: Median price of homes sold in 2006 — record high.
• $213,000: Median price of homes sold last October.
• $195,000: Median price of homes sold in August.

Thanks for the post. I am surprised that housing values are not lower.

Free to canoe

does this accurately represent house values as a whole?how do foreclosures skew this number? the demographic of the people selling over the last few years?

just wondering...

 

[ziggy29]

• $245,000: Median price of homes sold in 2006 — record high.
• $213,000: Median price of homes sold last October.
• $195,000: Median price of homes sold in August.

Thanks for the post. I am surprised that housing values are not lower.

The media attention is drawn to the (mostly) coastal cities where the housing bubble inflated the most. They are the ones featured on the news stories with respect to the magnitude of home price decline. But there are plenty of markets in the midwest, the south and the mountain west which didn't experience nearly the same price spike during the bubble -- so they aren't falling nearly as much. A lot of them have fallen considerably less than the 20.4% decline shown above.

But it's more "interesting" as news to show the areas where housing has declined 40-50% than some of the other places; many of the metro areas in Texas, for example, are only down about 5-10% from their peak. Of course, they didn't have the thermonuclear explosion in value in the Greenspan bubble, either.

 

[Midpack]

"• 92 percent: Decrease in Citigroup Inc.'s share price from Oct. 10, 2008, ($13.90) to March 9 ($1.05).
• 341 percent: Increase in Citigroup's share price from March 9 to Friday's close of $4.63."

Good example above of percentages being misleading - Citigroup is still down 80% or so from Oct 2008 - if you had that stock then, you are down 80% even if it rebounded 341% from its low.

What's misleading? If you bought in March, you're up 341%. Many people took the ride, some did better, some did worse as always.

 

[heyduke]

does this accurately represent house values as a whole?how do foreclosures skew this number? the demographic of the people selling over the last few years?

just wondering...

Where I live real estate has actually increased over that time... we were in a an area that was .84 of the cost of living index before the mini-depression...

 

[cboenews]

He's a by-the-numbers look at the stock market and the economy since the eight-day crash one year ago:

• $11.2 trillion: Total losses in the stock market from the Dow's peak in October 2007 to the March 2009 bottom.
• $4.6 trillion: Total gains in the stock market since March 9.
• 6: The number of the 10 worst point drops in the 113-year history of the Dow that occurred in 2008. The 777-point drop on Sept. 29, 2008, ranks No. 1.
• 3: The number of the 10 worst percentage drops that occurred in 2008. The Sept. 29 decline of 9 percent is the third-biggest behind 22.6 percent on Oct. 19, 1987, and 10 percent on April 14, 2000.
• 92 percent: Decrease in Citigroup Inc.'s share price from Oct. 10, 2008, ($13.90) to March 9 ($1.05).
• 341 percent: Increase in Citigroup's share price from March 9 to Friday's close of $4.63.
• 18-20: The historical average for the Volatility Index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, also known as the VIX, or "Fear Index."
• 89: Where the VIX peaked last October.
• 23: Where the VIX was on Friday.
• 16 percent: The amount by which the Dow's closing level on Friday was higher than its average close the previous 200 days. Earlier this month the number hit 20 percent, the highest since the early 1980s.
• $6.5 trillion: Value of assets in stock mutual funds at end of 2007.
• $3.7 trillion: Value at the end of 2008.
• $4.5 trillion: Value at the end of August.
• -$72 billion: Net cash flow (money put in minus money taken out) for stock mutual funds in October 2008.
• -$25 billion: Net cash flow in March.
• $4 billion: Net cash flow in August.
• $9: The amount, out of every $10 investors put into mutual funds in August, that went into bond funds.
• $855.40: The price of an ounce of gold on Oct. 10, 2008.
• $1,048.60: The price of an ounce of gold on Friday.
• 6.2 percent: Unemployment rate a year ago.
• 9.8 percent: Unemployment rate today.
• 95.2: Consumer confidence two years ago. Reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing; above 100 signals strong growth.
• 25.3: Consumer confidence in February — record low.
• 53.1: Consumer confidence today.
• 2.8 percent: Decline in retail sales in October and December 2008.
• 2.7 percent: Increase in retail sales in August.
• 4.75 percent: Federal funds rate two years ago.
• 1 percent: Fed funds rate last October.
• 0 - 0.25 percent: Fed funds rate today.
• 4.81 percent: London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), the amount banks charge each other to borrow money for three months, at its peak, on Oct. 10, 2008.
_0.28 percent: Three-month LIBOR rate Friday.
• -0.5 percent: Personal savings rate in 2005 as home prices were soaring.
• 6.9 percent: Personal savings rate in May.
• $975 billion: Credit card debt held by Americans last September.
• $899 billion: Credit card debt held at the end of August, down 8 percent.
• 7 million: Home resales in 2005, a record year.
• 4.5 million: Home resales in January at annual rate.
• 5.1 million: Home resales in August at annual rate.
• $245,000: Median price of homes sold in 2006 — record high.
• $213,000: Median price of homes sold last October.
• $195,000: Median price of homes sold in August.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091010/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_by_the_numbers

Good information. CBOE has an analysis of the analysis of the VIX over the last year which is similar to this article. here is the contents:


CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX )
One Year After the Financial Crisis:
Where it’s been, where it is now and what it says

• The average level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently has
  been relatively low – even in October, traditionally the most volatile
  month of the year – compared to late 2008 / early 2009 when markets experienced record volatility.
• In the video below, Ben Londergan, Co-CEO, Group One Trading (designated primary market maker in VIX options), talks about where the
  VIX level stands now versus a year ago, and the significance of the
  spread between actual and implied volatility.
• CBOE Research Paper,“VIX – Fact & Fiction,” highlights the 5 most
  common misconceptions about VIX.
• See video clips from 5 CBOE traders on VIX as the “fear gauge.”

here is the link:

CBOE Volatility Index ® (VIX ®) one year after the financial crisis | VIX Index Historical Data Chart| Vix Options Trading

Hope this is useful!

Kate
Advocate of cboe

 

[utrecht]

• -$72 billion: Net cash flow (money put in minus money taken out) for stock mutual funds in October 2008.
• -$25 billion: Net cash flow in March.
• $4 billion: Net cash flow in August.


I love how people pull their money out of the market at the bottom and now, 5-6 months after watching the market explode upwards, they are finally ready to start putting their money back in. Not too smart.

 

[kyounge1956]

• $975 billion: Credit card debt held by Americans last September.
• $899 billion: Credit card debt held at the end of August, down 8 percent.

Down 8% in a year. I find that amazing. I wonder if it is debt paid off since last year, or were Americans getting 3/4 of a billion dollars a year deeper in credit card debt before the crisis?

 

[Zathras]

Or defaults? Do cards that have been defaulted on still count as 'debt held'?