A review of basic withdrawal stratagies in retirement.

this is our first year in retirement with a portfolio that really didn't grow . basically flat return wise .

we are about 100k less then last year in value after spending down but in the scheme of things that does not spell much of a cut for 2016 . we use bob clyatts dynamic method .
 
this is our first year in retirement with a portfolio that really didn't grow . basically flat return wise .

we are about 100k less then last year in value after spending down but in the scheme of things that does not spell much of a cut for 2016 . we use bob clyatts dynamic method .

Yup, Clyatt's dynamic method and the method Scott Burns published a couple of years ago are essentially the same algorithm. I think Burns suggested 6%/90% whereas Clyatt suggested 4%/95%.

The idea is the same: withdraw a fixed % of your portfolio without regard for inflation. Mathematically, that can never run out of money (though it could theoretically become infinitely small). Then add the 90 or 95% of the previous year's withdrawal portion of the algorithm so you don't have to take a huge cut in spending in a bad market. In other words spending can increase by whatever % your portfolio increases, but it can never decrease by more than 90% (Burns) or 95% (Clyatt's) of the previous year's withdrawal.

I backtested this a couple of years ago and it does work. However, for a retirement that started in the late 1960's, because of the combination of a bear market and high inflation, it took quite a number of years before the spending power of your withdrawals caught back up to the first year's withdrawal. The lowest single year's withdrawal (measured against inflation) was also pretty low. That's the price to pay for a method that can almost literally last forever.

You can mitigate that somewhat Instead of using 95% of the previous year's withdrawal, use 95% of the previous year's withdrawal, adjusted for inflation. So the 95% becomes variable.

My recollection is that it's somewhat whack-a-mole in that there's a tradeoff between the lowest withdrawal (measured against inflation) and the amount of time it takes for your withdrawals to get back to where they were the first year.
 
I'm 17.5% ahead of when I retired 4 years ago... even after 4 years of living expenses and spending on almost $50k on a new garage so not much calculating for me to do.
 
Now we're running about 16% ahead of inflation which is a nice cushion. I take comfort from that when I am withdrawing from a portfolio that is smaller than it was a year ago. In 2015 (at least so far) the portfolio didn't grow enough to recover from my last withdrawal. It's flat to slightly negative this year, which means we're taking a small pay cut compared to last year, and a second withdrawal from a portfolio that didn't grow.
Which month do you look at when you do this if you withdrew money on January 1st? I look at my Network on Mint, and the amount varies by almost 5% in one area although if I pick Dec 14 to Dec 15, there is not much change (before I add in the inflation). And how do you calculate the inflation? Do you just look at the average CPI for the year? Thank you!
 
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Which month do you look at when you do this if you withdrew money on January 1st? I look at my Network on Mint, and the amount varies by almost 5% in one area although if I pick Dec 14 to Dec 15, there is not much change (before I add in the inflation). And how do you calculate the inflation? Do you just look at the average CPI for the year? Thank you!

For backtesting most use CPI because it's available. However, if you're actually in retirement, why not use your own personal rate of inflation? How much did baseline expenses increase for you, personally, over the previous year?
 
For backtesting most use CPI because it's available. However, if you're actually in retirement, why not use your own personal rate of inflation? How much did baseline expenses increase for you, personally, over the previous year?
Thank you. I have only been FIREd for half a year, so I cannot say how it will increase yet, but what you suggest sounds like a good idea - to use it as a main method or as a supplemental method to CPI or some other methods. I am not sure if that should be my main method since I have a tendency to try to meet self-imposed targets, so I might end up reducing my spending to meet my forecasted expense target even if it's painful.
 
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Which month do you look at when you do this if you withdrew money on January 1st? I look at my Network on Mint, and the amount varies by almost 5% in one area although if I pick Dec 14 to Dec 15, there is not much change (before I add in the inflation). And how do you calculate the inflation? Do you just look at the average CPI for the year? Thank you!

I look at it monthly if I care to, although I usually only check a few times a year, or if things seem to have hit a new high :).

Inflationdata.com lets you calculate the inflation over several months and years - that's what I use. They have updated info soon after the CPI for the prior month is released - usually later that afternoon.

So granularity is monthly.
 
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I look at it monthly if I care to, although I usually only check a few times a year, or if things seem to have hit a new high :).

Inflationdata.com lets you calculate the inflation over several months and years - that's what I use. They have updated info soon after the CPI for the prior year is released - usually later that afternoon.

So granularity is monthly.

Thank you, Audreyh1 for your comment and the link.

So, are you saying (if "you look at it monthly"), you check your real return each month (from the month before) and adjust your monthly withdrawal accordingly? And do you take the money out of cash or from shares that have gained? I am just trying to make sure I understand. (I have just recently started the withdrawal phase and I haven't come up with any good ways yet so I am currently spending money out of my cash reserves.) Thanks.
 
No, I don't make any withdrawal adjustments based on inflation. My withdrawal is annually, in Jan, and it is a fixed percent of the portfolio value on Dec 31 of the prior year. I ignore inflation in my withdrawal calc.

My withdrawal is usually all in cash, although occasionally I may take some in securities. After I take the withdrawal I rebalance the remaining portfolio.

My inflation adjusted net worth is measured from Jan 1, 2000, a few months after I retired. So I am looking back almost 16 years now. Jan 1 2000 is a tough compare because everything was at a multi year peak.

I just use it as a rough "how a I doing" measure, and as of yet haven't taken any measures based on the results.
 
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No, I don't make any withdrawal adjustments based on inflation. My withdrawal is annually, in Jan, and it is a fixed percent of the portfolio value on Dec 31 of the prior year. I ignore inflation in my withdrawal calc.

My withdrawal is usually all in cash, although occasionally I may take some in securities. After I take the withdrawal I rebalance the remaining portfolio.

My inflation adjusted net worth is measured from Jan 1, 2000, a few months after I retired. So I am looking back almost 16 years now. Jan 1 2000 is a tough compare because everything was at a multi year peak.

I just use it as a rough "how a I doing" measure, and as of yet haven't taken any measures based on the results.

Got you. Thanks. I cannot remember if I read it on this thread or somewhere else, but I read that some people were doing withdrawals based on real return rate, and for some unknown reason, I thought you were doing that too; hence the questions. My bad.
 
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Thank you. I have only been FIREd for half a year, so I cannot say how it will increase yet, but what you suggest sounds like a good idea - to use it as a main method or as a supplemental method to CPI or some other methods. I am not sure if that should be my main method since I have a tendency to try to meet self-imposed targets, so I might end up reducing my spending to meet my forecasted expense target even if it's painful.

There are many ways to approach this. If you like targets, then perhaps systematic withdrawal methods might be better for you. In those cases, the only inflation that matters is the inflation that applies to you, personally. Now, you might want to separate your expenses between basic expenses (like utilities, mortgage, insurance, food) and discretion (travel, gifts, etc) and think of the inflation adjusted part as applying only to the basic expenses, for example. That's not to say that you shouldn't shop around for the best deals in those areas (where you can) or move your thermostat setting, etc. But there is a limit even there and you're basically changing the baseline - those items will still be subject to inflation but the point is, each of those expenses have their own price changes over the years. That is, the official CPI is an aggregate of many things, so if you don't purchase those things in the same proportions used by the reported CPI, you're not getting an accurate reading of how your own cost of living is changing. Tracking is the key here.

As noted by many others, however, non-systematic methods work just as well if you're willing (and able) to dynamically adjust your spending during down markets. That becomes tolerable for many if the fixed portion of their income (SS and/or a pension) can supply much of the funds needed for life. Or if your nestegg is big enough that even a small percentage withdrawn per year can still support your basic spending needs.
 
There are many ways to approach this. If you like targets, then perhaps systematic withdrawal methods might be better for you. In those cases, the only inflation that matters is the inflation that applies to you, personally. Now, you might want to separate your expenses between basic expenses (like utilities, mortgage, insurance, food) and discretion (travel, gifts, etc) and think of the inflation adjusted part as applying only to the basic expenses, for example. That's not to say that you shouldn't shop around for the best deals in those areas (where you can) or move your thermostat setting, etc. But there is a limit even there and you're basically changing the baseline - those items will still be subject to inflation but the point is, each of those expenses have their own price changes over the years. That is, the official CPI is an aggregate of many things, so if you don't purchase those things in the same proportions used by the reported CPI, you're not getting an accurate reading of how your own cost of living is changing. Tracking is the key here.

As noted by many others, however, non-systematic methods work just as well if you're willing (and able) to dynamically adjust your spending during down markets. That becomes tolerable for many if the fixed portion of their income (SS and/or a pension) can supply much of the funds needed for life. Or if your nestegg is big enough that even a small percentage withdrawn per year can still support your basic spending needs.

Thank you very much for your thoughtful comments. I would like to adjust my spending according to the health of the market especially during the down markets. And what you say about CPI makes sense that only portions of it applies ot each individual (in our case, the low gas prices do not affect us as much since we only drive a few thousand miles per year.)

I am in the process of deciding the WR strategy. I recently moved to Canada and I currently have 6% CAD and the rest in USD. (3% CAD stocks and 3% cash) The expense level I set up in the US is what I am using here (with the assumption USD:CAD is 1:1) and it has been working OK so far without having to raise the numbers (although most things are more expensive here if you looked it as if USD:CAD were 1:1). For example, I would be able to get boneless chicken breast for $1.99/lb in the US on sale, but over here, the cheapest I could ever get chicken breast is $2.99/lb Lots of things are imported from the US and they are all more expensive. Sales tax being 13% doesn't help either.) My WR with my set budget is now looking like 2.6% WR instead of 3.5% due to the strong USD and I am very happy about that. (This could change to the other way around in a few years though although and that's why I am sticking with the USD level budget instead of spending the CAD equivalent...)

Anyway, my plan is to move some of my USD asset to CAD very very slowly (70% of my asset is in tax deferred so even if the exchange rate is favorable, I don't want to take a lot out at once.) How do you think I should look at inflation? Inflation rates are different between two countries, but most of my money is in the US so I imagine I should follow the inflation rate in the US?
 
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I wouldn't use personal inflation because all of the models like the Bengan are based on the CPI. So how can one choose a safe withdrawal rate based on personal inflation?

I chose to avoid the whole inflation adjusted withdrawals because I would rather track portfolio performance. That's why I do a fixed percent of portfolio on Dec 31 each year. Currently I am using 3.5%.

I figure over long periods of time my portfolio should keep up with or beat inflation since I have >50% in equities. But in the short term it may fall behind for several years, and so will my income. But when the portfolio zooms ahead, I get to increase my withdrawal.
 
tracking the cpi is worthless . none of our lives track that hypotetical basket of things .

one of the reasons counting on tips is a poor idea is you may come up way short using a cpi index vs reality . the cpi is only a price index it is not a true cost of living index .

like audry i prefer a dynamic withdrawal rate based on an inflation adjusted balance each year in real time .
 
So how can one choose a safe withdrawal rate based on personal inflation?

And personal inflation for many/most people would be so noisy/erratic as to be very hard to use. One year you have big medical bills, the next year you take a big vacation, then the following year the house needs a new roof.

I will take my withdrawal amounts based on the year-end balance of my portfolio. I'm dependent on our investments and their growth to support my spending long term, and those investments don't "know" or care what inflation has been. But tracking the value of our portfolio against general inflation over the long term provides a good check on whether we are slowly losing (or gaining) altitude and therefore need to adjust our spending.
 
I want to again thank everyone for their comments.


Samclem:
I planned on rebalancing my allocation, but the Kitces article really emphasized the importance of doing this. Thanks for posting it.
Fritz:
You are giving me confidence that our similar withdrawal strategies have been working out well for you over the last 6 years
. Thanks.
LOL:
I suspect using bonds instead of 2 years of cash is a logical approach. I psychologically like the idea of having a cash supply to withdraw from. Your idea makes putting everything into a 60/40 balance index fund at Vanguard and letting it ride very tempting.


I have two more comments/questions:
- I'm going to show my ignorance here. My retirement budget takes into account medical costs, and taxes to cover the money that will be withdrawn from IRA/401K accounts. While reading everyone's comments I started to realize that I'm not taking inflation into account. Am I supposed to consider increasing the withdrawal percentage as we go along? I certainly haven't planned for that, and it has me very concerned.


- I crunched our numbers a few more times, and came to the following conclusion: A 4% withdrawal rate gives us a very generous monthly amount to live on. In reality we can easily live on something closer to 3%, in fact we are living on something close to the 3% rate. If we plan on this lower 3% withdrawal rate, that leaves us with a nice big slush fund for extra expenditures (car replacement, home repairs, vacations). I realize that I'm just playing mind games with the numbers, but I like the lower withdrawal rate plan better. Any comments on this idea?

Thanks. JP

Our current withdrawals are only from our taxable accounts, and Roth accounts - a source of tax-free income not subject to ACA income criteria. We take dividends from Taxable and Roth accounts, and capital gains from Taxable (when needed). IRAs will hopefully be converted (as much as possible) to Roth accounts between 65 and 70.5 B4 RMDs start.

From 58 to 62 - we pulled from a savings account set aside specifically for that time frame, along with taxable account Divs. As mentioned, at 62 we both started Social Security (special set aside savings was depleted). Wife's SS is not considered as used to cover base living expenses, as it goes away when one of us does (we consider it a source of discretionary spending funds). Starting my SS @ 62 allows us to pull just 1.25% withdrawal rate from investments off Taxable and Roth accounts (divs only) to cover our base living expenses. Keep two years of that amount in a 1% APR savings account to eliminate using Divs/CGs if the market should slump. Also gives us a spending account for large purchases (car, home improvements, unusual medical expenses, and gifts to family). All of those uses have happened over our 6 yrs of retirement (and some of them have their own time frame demands). We take taxable account year end capital gains to replenished 1% APR savings account (added Roth CGs one year with unusually high medical expenses).

Above is to give you a better understanding of our withdrawal strategy - given my earlier posting comparing how similar our retirement strategies were.

I would suggest that you consider setting a budget of base living expenses w/o any discretionary spending (extras like new cars, travel, home improvements, etc). We track base living expenses on a single page excel spreadsheet - divided into those we can't control and those we can. Keep this simple or you might not be inclined to keep it up properly. If you learn to live within this base living expenses budget for everyday retirement, you'll accomplish a couple of positive things. You'll find that you'll always have a source of extra funds that have accumulated for desired discretionary spending. Your retirement savings will not be significantly dented for base living expenses in your early years of retirement (only if you decide on discretionary spending). I would say your thoughts about lowering withdrawal rate for your base retirement expenses, and holding it for future discretionary spending is "right on the money" (has worked well for us).
 
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I don't think it's possible to calculate a "personal inflation rate".

To do that, I'd have to buy exactly the same items over time - same brand, same size.
Then, I'd have to track every expenditure at that level.
Even if I always buy 10-packs of Quaker Instant Oatmeal, I still find that the price varies. Sometimes $2.50, sometimes $2.00, sometimes 3 for $7.00.
And, I'd have to normalize my market basket so I "buy" exactly the same quantities of exactly the same items year-over-year.

But, there are items that I don't buy frequently enough to make that work. A new computer, a winter jacket, running shoes, house paint. How do I adjust for different brands and probably different qualities.

Sure, I could probably estimate my personal inflation rate accurate within -15% to +15%, but the CPI is probably a better estimator.
 
You could always break down your yearly expenses into categories and then match them to BLS numbers to get your personal rate.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
 
I wouldn't use personal inflation because all of the models like the Bengan are based on the CPI. So how can one choose a safe withdrawal rate based on personal inflation?

I chose to avoid the whole inflation adjusted withdrawals because I would rather track portfolio performance. That's why I do a fixed percent of portfolio on Dec 31 each year. Currently I am using 3.5%.

I figure over long periods of time my portfolio should keep up with or beat inflation since I have >50% in equities. But in the short term it may fall behind for several years, and so will my income. But when the portfolio zooms ahead, I get to increase my withdrawal.

This is exactly my plan 3.5% fixed percent of portfolio. I am only 20 months in, so am very interested in your experience, as 2000 was not the best time to retire, your success is an inspiration. Have you been using this withdrawal method since you first retired 15 years ago, or have you modified it along the way?
 
You could always break down your yearly expenses into categories and then match them to BLS numbers to get your personal rate.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
Yes, that's a more practical approach. I wonder how much difference it would make.
 
This is exactly my plan 3.5% fixed percent of portfolio. I am only 20 months in, so am very interested in your experience, as 2000 was not the best time to retire, your success is an inspiration. Have you been using this withdrawal method since you first retired 15 years ago, or have you modified it along the way?
No, actually, I had other investments that I managed to live off of and didn't start withdrawing from the retirement portfolio until 2013. Also, the first two years I used 3.3%, then when I reached 55 I decided to go up to 3.5%. But those rates aren't including our IRAs yet. If I include those the rate is like 3%.

I retired really early, 39, so I set aside what I considered to be "enough" for a long term retirement portfolio, but I didn't want to tap into it right away, preferring to let it grow for at least 10 years. Managed to last 13.

That's why I use inflation adjusted total net worth over all those years to track how I did, since the retirement portfolio is a subset of all our investments, and we've only been drawing from it for a few years.

So, I'm not sure if I am a good model, although the other investments were actually riskier. Most of those years I was drawing down company stock. If it had ever gone to zero, or dropped really low, I would have switched to the retirement portfolio. Fortunately that didn't happen.

I confess to belts, suspenders, and more belts, and more suspenders.
 
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I'm 17.5% ahead of when I retired 4 years ago... even after 4 years of living expenses and spending on almost $50k on a new garage so not much calculating for me to do.

But those 4 years were pretty good ones.
 
No matter which withdrawal. Method one chooses, I think after retirement it would be very useful to keep a historic track of one's real portfolio value (or its value in present-year dollars and another line for the value at retirement adjusted each year for inflation). That lets you know if you are gaining ground or losing ground.

I agree, the numbers currently look great but adjusting for inflation is critical. Otherwise we are just fooling ourselves.

Retired partially in 2003 and fully in 2005. SS taken in 2012. This year the bar will be slightly down, about where it was in 2013. You can see my bar chart below which is updated yearly (Y-axis clipped off intentionally).

I think of VPW as the upper spending limit. This year we are allowed 4.5% from the portfolio but will come in at about 3.5%. We did spend a lot but SS helps.

qnaerr.jpg
 
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