tangomonster
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2006
- Messages
- 757
I read the thread about giving in to panic, started this past summer (ironic how we thought we were hurting just a few months ago when we hadn't seen anything yet!):
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/ugh-almost-ready-to-give-in-to-panic-36687-14.html
I'm about ready to give in and capitulate, but I don't see it as being panic---more like just resignation as to how things are.
Can some of you tell me if my math/reasoning is off? I realize no one has a crystal ball, but......
If a million dollars was cashed in and put in TF bonds paying 4%, in 3 years that million would be worth $1,120,000----and I'd be sleeping a lot better at night and enjoying my ER a whole lot more.
Whereas if the market goes down another 20%, that million would go down to $800,000. If it went up about 30% as is typical after a bear market, it would go up $240,000---but be worth $1,040,000---$80,000 less than keeping it in TF bonds.
So it seems like that keeping it in the market in hoping to recoup some of the losses is kind of futile, since it does seem likely that there will be further losses in the stock market....
Go easy on me!
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/ugh-almost-ready-to-give-in-to-panic-36687-14.html
I'm about ready to give in and capitulate, but I don't see it as being panic---more like just resignation as to how things are.
Can some of you tell me if my math/reasoning is off? I realize no one has a crystal ball, but......
If a million dollars was cashed in and put in TF bonds paying 4%, in 3 years that million would be worth $1,120,000----and I'd be sleeping a lot better at night and enjoying my ER a whole lot more.
Whereas if the market goes down another 20%, that million would go down to $800,000. If it went up about 30% as is typical after a bear market, it would go up $240,000---but be worth $1,040,000---$80,000 less than keeping it in TF bonds.
So it seems like that keeping it in the market in hoping to recoup some of the losses is kind of futile, since it does seem likely that there will be further losses in the stock market....
Go easy on me!