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Added historical returns to my spreadsheet
Old 01-20-2021, 08:08 PM   #1
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Added historical returns to my spreadsheet

I was bored waiting for the Spectrum tech to show up and fix my wifi so I added the ability to select any start date from 1928 to present for my real returns. Wasn't too hard to do once I found the right data. So I now have firecalc built into my spreadsheet. I like having it in my spreadsheet so I can make changes quickly and do better what if runs.

I thought 1928 was going to be the worst start date, but it wasn't. Turns out 1965 is the worst for a 60/40 portfolio. 1999 wasn't too good either. 2007 wasn't bad at all. And if you retired in 2008, you should have a lot more than what you started with. That was a good year to retire.

Firecalc says I am 100% and my model says my min balance is $209k if I started in 1965, so I am happy.
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Old 01-20-2021, 08:54 PM   #2
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Starting in 1999 and 2007 doesn't give you enough years of data for a complete retirement projection unless you're only planning to live 13 or 20 years past the start of retirement. That's why using FIRECalc with a 50 year retirement period usually gave better results than a 30 year period. Fewer rolling periods to test and it skips some bad periods.
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Old 01-20-2021, 08:58 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Animorph View Post
Starting in 1999 and 2007 doesn't give you enough years of data for a complete retirement projection unless you're only planning to live 13 or 20 years past the start of retirement. That's why using FIRECalc with a 50 year retirement period usually gave better results than a 30 year period. Fewer rolling periods to test and it skips some bad periods.
I used 2% real to fill in whenever I had less than enough data (later starting points). I could use the historical average real return of 6% to fill in the data, but I didn't. I also didn't want to go all the way back to the early stock market. Only because I didn't feel like looking for more data. And it's really old. So I chose 1929+.

For me, it's really only the first 15 years of returns that matters. After that, my COLA pension + SS covers all my expenses.
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:29 AM   #4
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One of the best historical data sources on the internet is Simba's spreadsheet over on bogleheads..

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simb...ng_spreadsheet

Cheers.
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Old 01-21-2021, 08:19 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by big-papa View Post
One of the best historical data sources on the internet is Simba's spreadsheet over on bogleheads..

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simb...ng_spreadsheet

Cheers.
@big-papa, Thanks! That has data going back to 1871.
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