AE: The Next Stock Market Wave

[ziggy29]

I'm sure you'd be hard-pressed to get them to admit it, but I suspect the ones on the very far side would be happier with a severe reduction in the number of people on this planet.

I think the world would be a much more stable place if the human population were half of what it is today.

I wouldn't support coercive or criminal measures to get there, but I do believe our future would be a lot more sustainable if we stopped causing demand for finite resources to be stretched thinner and thinner by population growth.

 

[Deadbeat]

A couple easy ways to play AE

Ticker TAN for solar.

And ticker FAN for wind.

 

[jIMOh]

Yes alternative energy could be the "next big thing". Here's a good question:

1) look at the S&P 500- which companies in it look to be able to profit from an investment in alternative energy?

2) look at a wilshire 5000/ TSM fund and see if any alternative energy funds are found there.

My take- more than likely few companies are in the S&P 500 which represent this sector, so wilshire 4500 or wilshire 5000 is where to be if you index.

The tech bubble, I have read, was 50-75% due to the increase in Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Oracle, Cisco and a few other key tech firms. Meaning the increase in market cap of these 5-10 companies accounted for 50-75% of the gain of the S&P 500.

Alternative energy, or a similar bubble, will probably be concentrated as well. Find the companies now, while their market cap is low.

 

[TromboneAl]

Then I saw this: YouTube - Runaway wind generator

That was neat -- looks like the turbine rotated clockwise (looking from the top) until one of the blades hit the tower.

 

[Brat]

My DD, who works for a VC, passed me the Singularity book. I agree that we will see results in AE development in the next 10 years, hopefully sooner. When I look at what oil companies have not done in the last 10 years I suspect that they saw this demand push-pull coming and were of the opinion that there was no way demand for gasoline could be produced at a cost-effective level long term. Societally, the best way to make the transition to AE is through pricing mechanisms - high gas and oil prices, but it will be tough for many households.

The early AE adapters will pay a premium, a few years later AE will shake out and the more effective methods will be available at a lower cost per Jule, a few years after that it will be in common use.

I think that shortly we will see results in bio-science for energy production, engineering for solar power and energy storage. Lately I have seen trucks going down I-5 with parts of wind generation systems.

Pay attention to what electric power companies are sweating.. companies leasing rooftops for solar to take advantage of tax incentives. I really wish the need for tax incentives would go away because it is distorting the operation of the market.

I am rambling so need to shut up.

 

[unclemick]

Yeah, unless you're a bird, what's the diff?

Actually I'm a fan of wind generated power and purchase it through our electric company. I always though I would love to have one of those big towers on my back 40 (OK, my back 3...). Then I saw this: YouTube - Runaway wind generator

Maybe not..

We had several out in my part of the swamp in the 70's - one guy tryed it three times/two different propeller styles before he conceeded 'it's not nice to fool with Mother Nature.'

Of course this time it's different. Smarter brand of engineer's this generation.

?Evolution not revolution?

heh heh heh - Progress. .

 

[Brat]

I agree that we will be going through an evolution. Husband and I were going through old family photos, great grandparents used a horse and buggy. Consider for a moment how fast the auto became the mode of transportation - and they needed to create a manufacturing process. This transformation will happen much quicker.

 

[mark500]

AE will be the driving force that will spawn an entirely new international industry.

It's deja vu all over again. Lol. Doesn't anyone remember Jimmy Carter and the 1970's?

 

[Finance Dave]

The tech bubble, I have read, was 50-75% due to the increase in Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Oracle, Cisco and a few other key tech firms. Meaning the increase in market cap of these 5-10 companies accounted for 50-75% of the gain of the S&P 500.

Alternative energy, or a similar bubble, will probably be concentrated as well. Find the companies now, while their market cap is low.

Yes, but be careful. If you invest in one of the players who doesn't make it, you lose everything. The trick is picking the BEST company(ies).O0

 

[Helena]

The planet needs space solar generated electricity
which will provide clean and unlimited electricity not
only for electric cars but also for desalination [the
world is quickly running out of oil and fresh water.]

If NASA can't develop and perfect a space solar
energy project on its own, then it needs to team up
with the ESA and Russia [NASA already works with
the ESA on SOHO and Russia on the ISS.]

I asked my brother, who is one of NASA's few remaining
Apollo era scientists, about space solar, and he said:
" Initially developing space solar would be quite expensive,
but the $$$ spent on the war in Iraq would be a start."

I say: Make space solar energy, not war !!

 

[ERD50]

We had several out in my part of the swamp in the 70's - one guy tryed it three times/two different propeller styles before he conceeded 'it's not nice to fool with Mother Nature.'

Of course this time it's different. Smarter brand of engineer's this generation.

?Evolution not revolution?

heh heh heh - Progress. .

Yep, the do-it-yourself crowd often fails to realize that the energy driving the blades increases with the CUBE of the wind speed.

Design one to capture a good amount of energy at 15mph wind, and it will have 8x the forces applied when the wind doubles to 30mph (2 cubed = 8 ). Another 8x for doubling from 30mph to 60mp, and it has 64x the forces to handle.

Tough to engineer something to take a 90mph gust, and work at more typical 15mph breezes ( a 216x increase! ).

-ERD50

 

[rogersteciak]

I asked my brother, who is one of NASA's few remaining Apollo era scientists, about space solar, and he said: " Initially developing space solar would be quite expensive, but the $$$ spent on the war in Iraq would be a start."

I agree with this assertion about the invention and commercialization of breakthrough technologies.

If you look at the history of microelectronics, integrated circuits were invented in the 1950s. Their initial applications were in military and space equipment and mainframe computers because these types of products needed the smaller size and less electrical energy consumption that integrated circuits provided. But integrated circuits were not cost effective against vacuum tubes in general-purpose industrial and consumer electronics.

That all changed in the early 1970s when integrated circuits became inexpensive enough to be used in consumer electronics. Digital watches and handheld electronic calculators were the products made possible by this cost-of-production breakthrough. Microelectronics then took on a commercial life of its own, attracting capital to fund startups and further breakthroughs and new product categories (e.g., the personal computer).

Once alternative energy technologies become inexpensive enough to manufacture without needing government subsidies to be competitive against oil, you will see alternative energy take off commercially and become pervasive throughout society. It's just a matter of time, with global peak oil driving up the price of oil-based products and R&D driving down the cost of alternative energy.

 

[unclemick]

Just be mindful of Mr Buffett's admontion on auto's and airplanes - great technologies but lousy(for shareholders) business models - remember how many auto and plane co.'s came and went?

heh heh heh -

 

[2B]

Just be mindful of Mr Buffett's admontion on auto's and airplanes - great technologies but lousy(for shareholders) business models - remember how many auto and plane co.'s came and went?

heh heh heh -

I've run into several people that have become very wealthy building airports and roads.

 

[unclemick]

I've run into several people that have become very wealthy building airports and roads.

Sooo - maybe we will see wind farm REITs in future - ala selling shovels and blue jeans to miners er or airports and roads to planes and cars.



heh heh heh -

 

[Brat]

I too think that future energy will be primarily electric generated by a diversity of processes. Solar and wind will be substantial contributors. Those of us who live near the sea may find that tidal energy can be harnessed.

Vehicles need a way to store energy... that will be a major technical challenge. We also need to make vehicles smart users of energy (getting my husband out of the driver's seat might be a first step ).

Heavy trucks ... big industry change.

 

[rogersteciak]

maybe we will see wind farm REITs in future

Dreamers build castles in the sky, optimists live in them, and realists collect the rent.

If those castles are securitized in the form of a REIT, it must pay out at least 90% of its net income to its investors. If the resulting dividend stream is steady and growing, it could turn out to be a good investment.

A wind farm REIT might offer good diversification if it turns out to be negatively correlated with the general economy (since the S&P 500 tends to decline when the price of energy increases).

There is a REIT for server farms (Digital Realty Trust, ticker: DLR) and a REIT for movie theaters and amusement parks (Entertainment Properties Trust, ticker: EPR), so you never know what might become available next in the "specialty REIT" category.