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Old 05-03-2021, 02:49 PM   #61
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Good article thx for posting. I'm surprised it didn't mention the massive tax increases coming our way. I would think that a lot of people are making strategic moves to avoid the inevitable. I had planned on selling my company in '22 or '23 but now am going to fast track it and get it done this year. Who nows if there will be any retroactive or claw back taxes but sticking to the original plan will cost me a ton.
That was one factor for me. I remember in '93, they passed a tax increase in August that applied retroactively to include what had already happened that year, so I pulled the plug in Feb and am not doing Roth conversions or anything else to generate taxable income until we see what's what.
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Old 05-04-2021, 04:41 AM   #62
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After the financial crisis, retirement age people continued to be employed at higher than historical rates. That had to begin turning around at some point. So to the point of the article, it seems like reversion to the mean after years of above trend employment rates.
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Old 05-04-2021, 06:11 AM   #63
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So I wonder what happens when all these "newly affluent" retirees start to sell off investments to fund their early retirements? If the numbers are large enough, I could see it throwing a wrench in the gears of FIREcalc.

Dare I say, that's 4% coming out of the market going into the economy.
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Old 05-04-2021, 06:19 AM   #64
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After the financial crisis, retirement age people continued to be employed at higher than historical rates. That had to begin turning around at some point. So to the point of the article, it seems like reversion to the mean after years of above trend employment rates.


That’s an excellent point. Plus, the whole FIRE Movement has happened and seeped into mainstream consciousness, like this article.
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Old 05-04-2021, 07:06 AM   #65
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Tax increases scare people (including me), and many people don't know or care about legislative processes.

re: ignorance, I think of the dopey memes some of my age-cohort (and older) love to send around, about how "Congress should have to live on minimum wage," or shouldn't get retirement benefits, etc. etc. As if.

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What is it about

that is so hard for some people to understand?
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:02 AM   #66
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Tax increases scare people (including me), and many people don't know or care about legislative processes.
According to this Roll Call report (here, h/t Gumby) the number of legislative proposals that become law has fallen to 1.5%. The rest fail.

No one knows how many campaign proposals and political speeches become legislative proposals but given the bluster and hyperbole, it must be a likewise small number.

We are all interested in potential tax increases. This is why we choose to wait until there is actual legislation and committee action, which is what makes a discussion here meaningful and potentially actionable.
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Old 05-04-2021, 08:08 AM   #67
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I know how the legislative process works. But I'd rather cut the politician off at the knees before any of their goofy talk actually grows roots.
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