After 5 Years sailing the seas Wife says we need to buy a house again

[ivinsfan]

I notice the OP didn't ask if he should buy, he asked how he should pay for it.


The first thing he needs to do is figure out exactly what this house will cost...then the carrying cost total of the house. Then come back here with those numbers.


Do they spend the entire pension, if they do how did they get so much cash on hand.


I also don't see a line item in the NW for the boat, OP are you keeping the boat and what will that cost you per year.

[figuy1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort Just curious if those are your thoughts or you have any research to support those statements? From what I have read most of the people who moved out of San Francisco just moved to the suburbs, not out of state

Here's an article from your same source: https://www.businessinsider.com/popu...o-areas-2021-6
The population of the SF/Oak/Berkley metro area declined by 0.6% from July 2019-July 2020. Though apparently, the slowdown in population growth was already happening before the pandemic given just a year before, it had no net population growth.

It looks like last year, the only county near SF with population growth was in Contra Costa County, the rest of the growth came from more inland places like Sacramento:
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics...251242824.html

I think the Bay area will continue to be an attractive place to live for high-income tech workers (I even have a friend that moved there this last week) but not so much for lower/middle class folks looking for affordable housing.

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by figuy1 Here's an article from your same source: https://www.businessinsider.com/popu...o-areas-2021-6 The population of the SF/Oak/Berkley metro area declined by 0.6% from July 2019-July 2020. Though apparently, the slowdown in population growth was already happening before the pandemic given just a year before, it had no net population growth. It looks like last year, the only county near SF with population growth was in Contra Costa County, the rest of the growth came from more inland places like Sacramento: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics...251242824.html

You posted previously that "I think 2020 will just be a blip in the radar and SF will continue to do draw people as long as the salaries stay high... I think the only major longer-term shift will be among those with children who will choose to work remotely to live in the less expensive parts of the country where they can afford a bigger house to raise their kids."

Your latest post didn't address the point I asked about. Contrary to common media mythology, studies show that in general the white collar workers in SF are not moving to lower cost parts of the country for bigger houses. They aren't even moving out of the Bay Area. In general, they are moving to the suburbs. The people moving out of California are less educated and lower income households, which aren't the type of jobs that can work from home. Only 14% of blue collar workers can work from home. Working from home isn't the reason most people are leaving the state. It is the high housing costs for people who are low income and can't afford to stay.

[figuy1]

Quote:

They aren't even moving out of the Bay Area. In general, they are moving to the suburbs.

Again, 8 of the 9 counties which make up the bay area had population declines and the area as a whole declined by 0.6% last year. CA as a whole lost over 180k residents, of which most came from the SF and LA metro areas.

If most SF proper residents moved to the suburbs, it would mean that an even higher proportion of previous suburban bay area residents would have had to move out of state for those numbers to work out.

I have not come across a data point that breaks down the shift by family size and would love to see it if you happen to find it. My perception is that most of the people moving in are white-collar SINKs and DINKs and the people moving out are lower-income white-collar workers, blue-caller workers, and to a lesser extent higher-income workers who are starting families and retirees. Is that not the case?

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by figuy1 Again, 8 of the 9 counties which make up the bay area had population declines and the area as a whole declined by 0.6% last year. CA as a whole lost over 180k residents, of which most came from the SF and LA metro areas. If most SF proper residents moved to the suburbs, it would mean that an even higher proportion of previous suburban bay area residents would have had to move out of state for those numbers to work out. I have not come across a data point that breaks down the shift by family size and would love to see it if you happen to find it. My perception is that most of the people moving in are white-collar SINKs and DINKs and the people moving out are lower-income white-collar workers, blue-caller workers, and to a lesser extent higher-income workers who are starting families and retirees. Is that not the case?

I don't want to pull this thread off track more than it is, so I won't comment any more on your perceptions. The hard data on who is moving in and who is moving out of both SF and California has been well studied and is in the links I provided, plus related articles.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustCurious Where are you getting that from? I don't see where the OP said she spent 5 years on a boat to make him happy, maybe he did it to make her happy? Maybe they both were happy? I don't understand why you jumped to the conclusion that she did it for him.

Heh, heh, probably they BOTH did it for the other, thinking the other wanted it. 5 years later they accidentally let it slip that they BOTH hated every minute of the 5 years. So much for good communication.


(note: The previous "story" is speculative and apocryphal so YMMV.)

[Brat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallaher You are concerned about Cascadia but live in Portland?

The Cascadia earthquake will not generate a tsunami that impacts Portland. Maybe if it generates an earthquake of 9+ magnitude but such an earthquake will shake all of the cities from Ashland to Victoria. There are some excellent YouTube videos, look for those by Nick Zentner such as

https://youtu.be/tW4D6OE7Qkc

or lectures by Chris Goldfinger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMYs4p6FGhE&t=287s

[ychuck46]

Quote:

Originally Posted by euro True that!

Absolutely. Oh, and go VOLS!