Originally Posted by Montecfo
... I am not going to invest in "the aggregate" of actively managed funds!
Exactly! That is the logical takeaway from the SPIVA reports. The next sentence, also logically, is to say "I am going to invest with the above-average managers."
How to find those above-average managers? The most popular technique is to chase performance. That is foundation of the industry's advertising. For those who favor that approach, S&P has a report for you, too: The "Manager Persistence" report, also published every six months. Sadly, they are all the same: For any period, the top managers' results for the following period are at hardly better than random and more typically worse than random. The mantra is always proven true: Past performance does not predict future results.
That's the dead end; no one knows how to predict which managers will be above average in the future. Here's Nobel winner Eugene Fama's long time research partner Ken French with a short video discussion: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/v...-managers.aspx
S&P SPIVA gateway: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/#/
S&P Manager Persistence gateway: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/in...nce-scorecard/