Alan Roth Discusses Various Vanguard Funds

mickeyd

Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Joined
Apr 8, 2004
Messages
6,674
Location
South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering C
Not all of the comparisons are concerning funds that I like or plan on investing in, however I like his simple logic for making his point.

My discussions with Vanguard were driven by the logic and math of our viewpoints. As is always the case, only time will tell who’s right.

(Select View Entire Article)
Where I Disagree with Vanguard | IAG Blogs
 
While I agree with Mr. Roth on many points, I thought this interesting:

Point: Paying off a mortgage is better than a bond fund or opening a CD.

I regularly tell my planning clients that a mortgage is merely the inverse of bond. When you own a bond or bond fund, you are lending money to an entity that pays you interest and your principal back. When you take out a mortgage, it’s the reverse. Paying off or paying down the mortgage is better than owning a bond in the taxable account as it’s always at least tax-neutral, and typically tax-advantaged, to jettison the bond and pay down the mortgage, as long as one has enough liquidity. I question the wisdom and practicality of lending money out at 2.28% (the rate of the Vanguard Total Bond Fund) and borrowing it at a higher rate.

Counterpoint: I’m missing the point, Kinniry insisted. Consider a hypothetical of an individual with a $1 million portfolio (60% stocks/40% fixed income) and $1 million home with $400,000 mortgage at a 3.2% interest rate. He argued one could likely make a greater return with that 60/40 split than the low mortgage rate.

I pivoted the hypothetical to viewing the situation this way: The investor actually had a home worth $1 million and a portfolio worth $600,000 that was 100% invested in stocks). As I see it, the $400,000 mortgage and the bond fund cancel out. One shouldn’t borrow the money at 3.2% only to lend it out at 2.28%. While Kinniry and I weren’t on the same page on the comparable bond fund to use (he advocated for corporate and muni bonds), we both agreed that it’s not a good idea to borrow money at a higher rate than one expects to receive from a comparable investment.

Would he actually recommend that a client with a $1 million home, $400k mortgage at 3.2% and a $1 million 60/40 portfolio pay off their mortgage and end up with a $1 million owned home and $600k all in equities? I don't think many early retirees would be comfortable with a 100% equity portfolio even if they had a paid-off house. I know I would not be.
 
As a retiree I would not be comfortable with a $1 million home and total of $600k invested in anything.
I would hope they were talking about pre-retiree folks still accumulating rather than a retired person.
 
When I paid off my mortgage I looked at it as the same as making an investment at that rate of interest. It was higher than market rates so I did it. The new cash flow was very nice.
 
But did you change the AA of your investment portfolio because you paid of your mortgage? I suspect most people do not.
 
No, I didn't. I was underweight stocks at the time and didn't want to make a change.
 
While I agree with Mr. Roth on many points, I thought this interesting:



Would he actually recommend that a client with a $1 million home, $400k mortgage at 3.2% and a $1 million 60/40 portfolio pay off their mortgage and end up with a $1 million owned home and $600k all in equities? I don't think many early retirees would be comfortable with a 100% equity portfolio even if they had a paid-off house. I know I would not be.
You wouldn't need to stay in that financial position; i.e., get a cheaper house or invest some of the $600K in bonds. That said, a) what you were spending on the mortgage can now be added to your investments/reduced withdrawals, and b) I would rather have the $1.6M assets/zero debts, than $2M assets/$400K debts regardless of how the $1.6M is distributed.
 
Back
Top Bottom