Am I being overly simplistic?

[Independent]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeTravis Good question - I think now I can relax and quit worrying if it's enough, and continue to add to our portfolio with the comfort of knowing that we're covered. Maybe I'll ER next week - but wait until 2014 to tell my employer

Good plan. I was aiming for a date at a least a year in advance. I knew that I was FI. I knew that if they went through a downsizing, instead of being worried that I'd get fired, I could look for a way to raise my hand and volunteer to go. (Saw a former co-worker yesterday who left two years after me and actually made that work.) It reduced the stress.

I eventually gave my boss 4 months notice, but told him I'd be willing to work longer if he was having trouble replacing me. I ended up working 8 months. That made working even easier.

[LakeTravis]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack With your backgrounds, this probably goes without saying, but FIRECALC is based on past history. While that included some long periods of horrible returns, in the long run US returns in the 20th century were unprecedented. Where a 4% SWR is defensible based on the history of the last 100+ years in the US, there are very few countries where 4% SWR would have been safe at all An International Perspective on Safe Withdrawal Rates: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule?. There are quite a few economists and other financial researchers who caution against using past history - without factoring/planning on lower long term real returns. That being said, there are also economists and others who are convinced the outlook for the US is outstanding, and make a fairly convincing argument that real returns will be better (despite the shorter term outlook). Again, probably went without saying - but for some a 100% result in FIRECALC isn't enough... And don't get me wrong, you're indeed in very good shape financially!

I do understand your point - it's always a gamble and nothing is certain.

We would certainly have some flexibility in our annual withdrawal amounts, and in bad years would survive on cash reserves and/or substantially reduced amounts.

And while past performance is not indicative of future returns, I'm being a bit conservative in my own spreadsheets by counting on substantially less of an annual return than what either Wellington or Wellesley have historically provided over the life of their funds.