Am I there? Will this work?

[nun]

Congratulations... you seem to be in pretty good financial shape.

You did not mention if you are married or single or general health or longevity expectations. Not asking you to share that information, but if you are considering FIRE without a big cushion those issues might matter.

Another consideration would be how much of your projected income do you consider discretionary? Expenses, that if a financial problem arises, can be eliminated and redirected to non-discretionary needs.

+1 on the rental unit concerns. I assume the $1200/mo is not net operating income. IMO if that rental income is income you require for income through thick and thin, use a conservative figure for income planning... vacancies, repairs, taxes, insurances, etc.

Don't forget infrequent repair and upkeep expenses for your home. They can be quite expensive also. So that $24k/yr at 4% might wind up being a little higher (e.g., 4.5%)

Do some scenarios on paper to stress test your assumptions. What might go wrong? Down market, big expenditures to fix the Real Estate, vacancies, Health Problems that increase expenses, etc. The perfect storm of bad market and increased expenses.

What if your base budget took a $8k/yr sustained hit (Impaired income, increased expenses or combination of the two)... would it ruin your plans? If you knew that would happen, would you make a different decision?

Some people FIRE on the extreme. They are intent on making work and will accept a spartan lifestyle at a young age (e.g., late 30's or early 40's). Others want to keep their more mainstream lifestyle. For most of us that try to maintain a larger lifestyle, to sustain our lifestyle, we choose to work till we are older to create a really solid financial situation. I was in the 2nd category which is why I waited till 55. Of course, there are many shades of grey in-between.

How would you describe yourself? Want your comforts? Or willing to make it work come hell or high water because you feel some extra non-working years are worth it?

I'm single! I wouldn't even consider ER if I had any dependents.

I've been tracking my expenses for a year now to catch the seasonal fluctuations. My average monthly spending is $1900/month, but that doesn't include heath care or taxes as they get taken out of my paycheck right now. I'm healthy and can get a 2000/4000 health policy for $400/month and I've used 15% as my tax rate even though it will probably be a little less than that. So that gives me an annual budget of $32.4k and I though a 20% margin on top of that would be good and that's how I arrived at $39k a year.

The $1200 rental income is gross, not net, but last year's costs of owing the rental and factored into my budget and the place is in good repair with new water heaters, boilers, roof etc.....I did a lot of work on the place a couple of years ago as I didn't want to have a major repair soon after ER without a wage coming in. I'm confident of the $1200/month as the place as never been empty in 15 years and last time rented within two days of me advertising on Craigslist.

I'd describe myself as frugal....but I don't live a spartan life IMHO. I cook a lot and grow veg in the garden. I would never buy an apple pie because I can make one for a quarter of the price and it tastes better too. My main hobby is cycling which saves on transportation, but can be quite expensive if you want the latest gear.

Finally someone mentioned that my critical phase is between 50 and 66 as when SS starts I will have more than enough income. I think i have enough headroom factored in and options to make my ER possible, but I think I'll work for a year more to give me even more of a cushion.

 

[DangerMouse]

If I were you I would probably roll the dice and go for it.

I think it helps immensely knowing you have the NHS to fall back on, you don't have to worry what your health insurance premium is going to be over the next 15 years.

Do you have a Plan B if your portfolio doesn't do what you are hoping over the next few years? We are going to make the jump soon and we figure we may not have enough, however I'm prepared to do temp work in Australia for 3 months of the year to subsidise our income if we have too many down years.

 

[clifp]

If I were you I would probably roll the dice and go for it.

I think it helps immensely knowing you have the NHS to fall back on, you don't have to worry what your health insurance premium is going to be over the next 15 years.

.

+1

But I think you have to take more risk in your portfolio. After age 59 all of your pensions are COLA and it is nice that you have separate COLAs from both the US and the UK.

With TIPs paying 0% real I don't see how you have a chance of hitting 4% + 3% inflation kicker with the 75K in TIPs fund. Like wise the short term bond fund is paying .75%/year. The fixed income portion of you portfolio is barely paying 2% this means you asking the 50% in equities to make 6% + 3% inflation adjustment. At the very least I think you should consider eliminating the short term bond fund and sticking it into the total bond. Like wise I'd move the TIPs into either more Wellesley, Hi Yield or an equity fund.