Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
An interesting stock picking challenge
Old 10-22-2008, 07:54 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
An interesting stock picking challenge

Nouriel Roubini was on CNBC this morning - his only stock recommendation is anybody that makes and sells anti-depressants - along with Jack Rivkin.

Rivkin was under my radar screen before today, but I loved it when he said, "Don't pick a stock that you heard on TV. Do your own work." The unspoken, but clearly sent message was: "Only an idiot watches CNBC and buys a stock because some bozo in a suit plugged it!" So un-CNBC!

Anyway, Rivkin probably knows a thing or two about stock picking, he was the CIO at Neuberger Berman until he retired this past Summer. NB was the only piece of Lehman's that wasn't included in the bankruptcy.
Quote:
The 69-year-old wealth management company, which became part of Lehman Brothers in 2003, remains a strong business within the asset management industry - a financial services sector that's insulated somewhat from Wall Street's present chaos, according to analysts..."Neuberger Berman would look to be a franchise that would survive independently," says William R. Katz, an analyst with Buckingham Research in New York. "The money managers have good reputations - they have the relationships with the clients,"
Rivkin has a solid resume of stock picking and asset management back to 1968.

Rivkin said several times he would not be a buyer at the moment, but apparently he must have said something about having a list of stocks he was interested in. The talking heads pressed him to puke the list out, and he did, but in an interesting way.
Quote:
Half of these trades I like, but not the other half. Do your own work and figure it out for yourself.
He presented them as pairs by industry, but he said that each pair did not necessarily represent an investment he was interested in and one he was not.
CNQ - TLM
PFE - PG
CAT - CBI
SHLD - TGT
STP - AMAT
MON - DOW
C - Your local bank
FPL - AEP
I own only one of these issues (DOW), but have been interested in all but a couple of them at one time or another. Since we're still working on figuring out where the bottom is in this market, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who wouldn't mind picking up some real bargains, I thought I would play with Rivkin's list as a mental exercise with an eye on maybe finding a real buy and invite others to play along. Hey, it beats watching the red numbers on the screen.

If you care to join in, pick eight long term picks from the list and give some thoughts about your choices.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-22-2008, 05:15 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
Ok I'l play.

CNQ-TLM don't know enough to comment.
PFE-PG. I own Pfizer (sadly) but I think P&G is like Coke is almost certain to be around for the rest of my life. Over the next 3 years PFE, 3+ years P&G.
CAT-CBI. No clue about Chicago Bridge and Iron. I'm a long time holder of CAT, global infrastructure is still a growth market. Several billion folks are finally emerging from subsistence living and they'll need better infrastructure, roads, government & commercial building, cell phone towers, ports, airports etc. Cat makes the machines that make that possible. I'm still up almost 100% on my CAT stock (more if I include dividends). Every year I write a Jan 100 call on the company, when hits that price I will relcuntantly sell it. Unless management does some really stupid things.
SHLD-TGT I don't understand retailers, they are my equivalent of Buffett's tech stocks. Sear Holdings is a strange hyrbrid, retailer/REIT/investment company. I hate both Sears and Target stores so if force to chose SHLD.
STP-AMAT. I predict that in the next 10 year solar companies, such as arguably best in class Suntech, will make more money than solar companies have made in the last 50 years. However, that number is still tiny number and will probably stay that way forever. Applied Material (AMAT) makes equipment which that is essential for the digital economy. The digital economy is here to stay and so is AMAT.

Mon-DOW. Don't have much of a clue. This is basically a coin flip for me, but I go with Monsanto - there ads are cooler LOL.

C - your local bank. The smartest guy in my angel investment group, was the former head of Citi in various Asian county. I asked him a couple of weeks ago if he still owned Citi stock. He doesn't and neither do I. Your local bank on the other hand is in in a great position to pick up customers from the WaMu, Wachovia, NCC and other loser in the banking game.

FPL-AEP. I think both will do reasonably well because, if clean coal is sucessful than AEP will be the winner and that is my bet.
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Gentlemen's Stock Picking Club greg Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 99 10-19-2007 02:07 PM
Need ideas for photo challenge Webzter Other topics 21 07-26-2007 06:56 AM
Ohio waitress wins CNBC stock picking contest cute fuzzy bunny Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 21 07-20-2007 10:22 PM
Any interest in a stock picking board? brewer12345 Forum Admin 30 05-30-2007 12:46 PM
Is all the Indexing money making opportunities for stock picking? Olav23 FIRE and Money 2 01-08-2007 11:40 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:03 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.