Another stagflation thread

[slowsaver]

Curious what others think of this CNBC article, "World Bank slashes global growth forecast to 2.9%, warns of 1970s-style stagflation" - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/wor...wth-outlook-and-warns-of-70s-stagflation.html

I read some older threads that asked how to prepare for stagflation. Lots of people said, iBonds, TIPS and gold. Is that still the general advice?

 

[SnowballCamper]

I think it depends on your time frame. If you need the money within five years, then those might be good. If you're still in the accumulation phase, then just stick with your asset allocation.

Maybe someone knows where a historical version of the Periodic Table of Investment Returns is for the 1970s? https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/

 

[daylatedollarshort]

We have used an asset matching approach and that seems to have worked out well for us, and does include TIPS and I bonds - https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Matching_strategy. A 1.3% real yield on a TIPS ladder provides a 4% safe withdrawal rate over 30 years with the relative safety of Treasuries - https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us. Rates aren't quite there yet but have been rising in 2022 and I hope will get there or higher before year end.

We also have worked to continually hack all our expenses every year of retirement to keep our personal inflation rate declining, even when CPI inflation is going up.

 

[slowsaver]

I think it depends on your time frame. If you need the money within five years, then those might be good. If you're still in the accumulation phase, then just stick with your asset allocation.

I'd generally just stay the course, but the tech company I work for is getting bought and there is some rumor of 70% layoffs in 6-12 months. I'm also hearing that getting a new tech job is going to get harder.

So I was thinking I should probably load-up on cash over the next 6-12 months so that I don't need to touch my investments during the downturn. With inflation being high, I guess TIPS might be a good bet. (I already got my $10k ibond this year.)

Firecalc says I can retire now. I'm a little bummed if my FIRE date ends up being a repeat of 1966 retirees.