Anticipated gasoline price

[MasterBlaster]

Telly:

you are refering to the "Peak-oil theory" described here in wikipedia...

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In a nutshell, the theory prdicts the fall of the modern world as oil production peaks then begins it's slow decline.

check out some of the references as many do not believe that the end of civilization is near or in (2010 or so as predicted by the charts).

[Zathras]

MasterBlaster, I think your nutshell is misplaced.
Peak Oil doesn't mention the end of civilization. Some people have Used peak oil theory to extrapolate that civilization as we know it will end UNLESS we find other energy sources.
I do agree, and find it dificult to argue against the idea that without oil our civilization would undergo a major change.
What is more questionable is exactly when that will occur. Personally, I would rather be ready for it ahead of time, than not be ready when it happens.

[MasterBlaster]

The end of civilization was my editorialized exaggeration.

Nonetheless the peak oil theory suggests hard times as oil becomes scarce.

[Zathras]

Do you disagree with that?
Considering what oil is used for, it seems to me there would be a time of major adjustment as we moved from oil to other energy sources.
The timing is the big issue. If oil doesn't get scarce before we have moved to other sources of energy, it should be no issue. If oil gets scarce before we move to other forms of energy then trouble will follow.

[Danny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl Here's my prediction: at some point oil producers will get concerned about the development of alternative fuel vehicles, and drop prices substantially.

That's why the feds and the states should each add some more taxes to a gallon of gas.....give it back to the poor and middle class through a tax break...keep us motivated to use less gas...I want to get weaned off of OPEC oil...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam I'm pretty sure nuclear will be there.

I just bought an Atomic Blue Honda Civic

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanTien That's why the feds and the states should each add some more taxes to a gallon of gas.....give it back to the poor and middle class through a tax break...keep us motivated to use less gas...I want to get weaned off of OPEC oil...

That is what I think should be done. It would cost almost nothing - as you say, make it 'revenue neutral'. But, it would encourage people to conserve and seek out alternate energy.

But, as I've said before, what politician will push for that?

-ERD50

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I have just read that in Mexico, blue agave is being cut down to plant corn to make ethanol for the US market. No mas tequila!

Who says civilization isn't coming to an end?

[Independent]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 That is what I think should be done. It would cost almost nothing - as you say, make it 'revenue neutral'. But, it would encourage people to conserve and seek out alternate energy. But, as I've said before, what politician will push for that? -ERD50

I'll vote for this (and for a politician who I thought could get it through).

Greg Mankiw, who was the chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors from 2003-05 is a big proponent of gas taxes. Probably one of the reasons why he "was" chairman of the CEA. He keeps a list of people who have advocated gasoline (or crude oil) taxes on his blog under the title "Pigou Club". (A Pigou tax is one that tries to charge for a negative externality.)

Mankiw's blog is at: Greg Mankiw's Blog

[Danny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 That is what I think should be done. It would cost almost nothing - as you say, make it 'revenue neutral'. But, it would encourage people to conserve and seek out alternate energy. But, as I've said before, what politician will push for that? -ERD50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Independent I'll vote for this (and for a politician who I thought could get it through). Greg Mankiw, who was the chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors from 2003-05 is a big proponent of gas taxes. Probably one of the reasons why he "was" chairman of the CEA. He keeps a list of people who have advocated gasoline (or crude oil) taxes on his blog under the title "Pigou Club". (A Pigou tax is one that tries to charge for a negative externality.) Mankiw's blog is at: Greg Mankiw's Blog

Thanks for the link.

What we need is some politicians state(wo)men with the courage to have a mature conversation with us. We need a Vision of where we need to be and layout some plans to get there.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanTien Thanks for the link. What we need is some politicians state(wo)men with the courage to have a mature conversation with us. We need a Vision of where we need to be and layout some plans to get there.

Yes Independent, thanks also.

Dan, excellent point. However, I am really being distracted by:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy I have just read that in Mexico, blue agave is being cut down to plant corn to make ethanol for the US market. No mas tequila! Who says civilization isn't coming to an end?

From wiki:

Quote:

Tequila is produced by removing the heart of the plant in its twelfth year, normally weighing between 35-90 kg.

Twelve years before a new plant can produce tequila! Think of the consequences!

Worse part is, it takes what, about 85 gallons of gasoline (equivalent) to produce about 100 gallons of ethanol (equivalent)? Something like that.

I need a drink.

-ERD50

[Danny]

Anyone else notice people are driving slower. I see it and I'm one of them. I'm clocking the speedlimit. I also coast more to the stops and acceralate more slowly - try to keep the rpms under 3,000 even 2,000 if I can. Admit there are some that are not hip, but I'm legal so deal with it!

[TromboneAl]

Quote:

but I'm legal so deal with it!

Spoken like a true geezer. Better to be a geezer than a guzzler.

We usually drive 55 (got 44 mpg on last two tanks), but it feels like no one else does. I rarely pass anyone.

Gas Tax: great idea that won't happen.

[Coffeepusher]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sam Adjusted for inflation, even today's gas price is about the same as it was 20-25 years ago.

Whenever I hear this quote (despite the fact that I don't question its truth or relevance), I get a little antsy. Isn't it true that rising energy costs are a profound cause of inflation in an economy? Wouldn't that fact simply become a circular arguement?

Consider: It's 2011, a barrel of oil is $130 and the price still doesn't top the 1980 "Adjusted for inflation" peak because the increasing price of oil has inflated the dollar that much more. While in the mean time, real wages have barely moved, a gallon of milk costs 5 bucks, and a semester of college at a modest institution costs 50 grand.

Any thoughts on this?

[dumpster56]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffeepusher Whenever I hear this quote (despite the fact that I don't question its truth or relevance), I get a little antsy. Isn't it true that rising energy costs are a profound cause of inflation in an economy? Wouldn't that fact simply become a circular arguement? Consider: It's 2011, a barrel of oil is $130 and the price still doesn't top the 1980 "Adjusted for inflation" peak because the increasing price of oil has inflated the dollar that much more. While in the mean time, real wages have barely moved, a gallon of milk costs 5 bucks, and a semester of college at a modest institution costs 50 grand. Any thoughts on this?

Its 2007 and the price of a barrel is 100 and 130 could be alot sooner than the year 2011.

[REdreamn]

I fail to see how an increase in gas tax alone will result in anything other than more dollars for pork. If the increase were used dollar-for-dollar for alternative energy research/credits, then maybe it could help. There needs to be a space race style paradigm shift to really focus us toward alt energy. I don't think the oil lobby will allow it.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REdreamn I fail to see how an increase in gas tax alone will result in anything other than more dollars for pork. If the increase were used dollar-for-dollar for alternative energy research/credits, then maybe it could help.

I agree 100%. But Congress does not have a good track record in such things.

The money wouldn't even need to be used for credits/research. It could just be returned to the public in the form of a higher standard deduction, making it revenue neutral. So, on average it wouldn't 'cost' people anything, but the relatively higher price of fossil fuel would drive free market alternatives.

The problem I have with Congress determining alt energy credits/research, is that you are letting politicians make technical/economic decisions. Look at ethanol - an alt energy disaster funded by Congress. I say let the free market respond. The only incentive required is higher fossil fuel prices. Entrepreneurs will fill the demand with creative solutions.

-ERD50

[REdreamn]

True to a point, ERD50. The b!tch of the thing is, though, that the alt energy market is responding to something that is not technically a market (the oil "market"). Despite the rumors that they are at max pumping capacity, I think that opec holds all the cards wrt production and uses it like a puppeteer to control pricing. If they want $60/bbl, viola! If they want $100/bbl, done. If they thought we (the US) were really serious about utilizing alt energy, we would see $60 again in a heartbeat.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Worse part is, it takes what, about 85 gallons of gasoline (equivalent) to produce about 100 gallons of ethanol (equivalent)? Something like that. -ERD50

Even worse - sugar cane is something like (at least) 3x more efficient than corn for producing ethanol. Brazil has become energy independent because they are capable of producing vast quantities of sugar cane ethanol.

But can we take advantage of their cheap ethanol? NO!!! We have super high tariffs on imports of Brazilian ethanol. What an outrageous rip-off of the American Public!

It's all a giant farm welfare program.

Audrey

[REdreamn]

In a perfect world, we would be able to take advantage of cheap Brazilian ethanol. BUT, start loading that stuff onto the energy market, and Brazil will go from a rich rain forest to Indiana South in no time (am I a Green, maybe). A good start: aggressive tax credits for p-v, higher CAFE standards to include light trucks, and shun the oil lobby to give tax credits for plug in hybrids. At least the plug in hybrid won't cause us to latch onto one specific electric source, and everyone knows that p-v is as close free energy as there is (flamebait).

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Brazil has become energy independent because they are capable of producing vast quantities of sugar cane ethanol.

No, that really is not it at all.

The people of Brazil only use 12.5% as much energy per capita as we do.

Energy Consumption: Total energy consumption per capita

Brazil ~ 1M Kilogram-Oil-Equivalent units per capita
USA ~ 8M Kilogram-Oil-Equivalent units per capita

So, if the US converted to just 12.5% alternate energy, we would be just as 'independent' as Brazil. Probably more so, not ALL their energy comes from ethanol. All it would take is to have a similar standard of living as the average Brazilian, and we would need to get by w/o much heat or AC.

We wouldn't even need to go that far for energy independence, we have our own coal and oil. But we don't have very much land capable of producing sugar cane.

-ERD50