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02-17-2009, 10:04 AM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikubak
OK, they yieldED over 5%. These days, no yield is safe except for maybe Philip Morris. Smokers will probably keep smoking through a severe recession or a depression.
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Hell, they might even pick up some new customers.
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02-17-2009, 10:23 AM
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#22
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
I wonder if the euro will survive. I also wonder how a country get out of the euro and go back to their own currency.
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Have you changed your mind since last October?
http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ing-39887.html
I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.
To the OP,
Yes I am relatively bullish, at least compared to most TV pundits. I haven't sold anything yet, and actually I am buying more equities all the time. I am also fully rebalanced. So, dumbsh*t +1 here. But I have been lowering my cost basis considerably in the past 3 months and that should give me a better base to build juicier long term returns. At least that's the plan.
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02-17-2009, 10:24 AM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 1,708
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Still 100% individual stocks here, 2.5 years into retirement. I have no opinion as to which way stock prices are headed, but I am not too worried. Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so). I do monitor their earnings estimates, and re-analyze them when significant changes occur. News is watched strictly for laughs - I would not base my investing on it.
__________________
learn, work, save, invest, fire
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02-17-2009, 10:45 AM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor
Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so).
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You obviously don't own any financial stocks -- BAC, C, etc. if they're still around.
I used to immediately transfer money into our Roths but I havn't this year. I'm waiting for the cash amount to grow above my "minimum" cash level.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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02-17-2009, 10:46 AM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Have you changed your mind since last October?
http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ing-39887.html
I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.
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October '08 seems like ages ago.
Re: Emerging Markets stocks - That is the largest stock investment I have to make. I'm guessing the buying time frame will be similar to the dollar peak.
Re: FX I think what changed is the weighting of the currencies I will put my money. I also guessing that the Euro zone has not addressed economic problems as aggressively as they should.
I'm liking the A$ & C$ better now because they have natural resources (including gold) that can be sold when the economy pick up and they are willing to raise interest rates quickly when they see signs of inflation. I don't think the USA or Euro will raise rates quickly or high enough when needed. They wouldn't want to cut the recovery short.
So my preference allocation for currencies would look something like:
1. A$ 40%
2. C$ 40%
either 1 or both
3. £ 10%
4. € 10%
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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02-17-2009, 10:49 AM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.
That's bullish!
Audrey
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02-17-2009, 10:58 AM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.
That's bullish!
Audrey
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They had better buck up then, because today both the Dow and S&P are awfully close to 52 week lows.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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02-17-2009, 10:58 AM
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#28
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
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Im getting ready to buy a little at these levels
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02-17-2009, 11:00 AM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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I may do some nibbling here if the lows stick until the end of day. I'll probably buy some Wellesley and collect the yield why I wait for recovery.
If we continue into a deflationary spiral, history shows that retiree's with pensions or other fixed, safe incomes, do well. People with debt, non-liquid assets, stocks etc. do poorly.
So I guess I'm cautiously defensamistic.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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02-17-2009, 11:05 AM
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#30
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 482
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.
That's bullish!
Audrey
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Or maybe better phrased....Bull ish
__________________
Retire date Jan. 10, 2018
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02-17-2009, 11:13 AM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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The more bulls are seen as part of the lunatic fringe, the better. Think about the folks predicting financial meltdown 18 months ago.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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02-17-2009, 11:20 AM
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#32
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 291
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Here Here, I can't take much more depressing negativity
Hopefully things will get better when the weather improves
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02-17-2009, 11:31 AM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CyclingInvestor
Still 100% individual stocks here, 2.5 years into retirement. I have no opinion as to which way stock prices are headed, but I am not too worried. Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so). I do monitor their earnings estimates, and re-analyze them when significant changes occur. News is watched strictly for laughs - I would not base my investing on it.
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Unfortunately, for me 1/2 dozen of my dividend paying stocks mostly financial stocks, a REIT, and a pipeline natural gas company slashed dividends. The good news the other 30 odd maintained or even modestly increased dividends. Overall my dividend income is down less than 10%, so I'll just hang and tighten the belt a bit.
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02-17-2009, 11:49 AM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 1,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B
You obviously don't own any financial stocks -- BAC, C, etc. if they're still around.
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You are correct. I sold WM in Apr 07 and C in Oct 07 when it became apparent that no-one had any idea what their assets were worth anymore. I held onto my final semi-financial GE too long, finally selling it in Nov 2008 for the same reason. Thats what I get for violating my own rules.
__________________
learn, work, save, invest, fire
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02-17-2009, 12:04 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 7,298
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The more it drops the more bullish i become. Just bought 80 shares of VDE on sale sale sale! Of course that's what i thought when i bought BAC at $33.05. and $25.15. and $22.06. It can't go any lower than this!! ( it's $5.01 now? errrggg.). Almost enough to make a man stick with cleaning toilets and browbeating tenants to make money.
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02-17-2009, 12:06 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calmloki
The more it drops the more bullish i become.
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Well, the more the market drops, the closer it is to the eventual bottom by definition. The more it drops now, the less it can drop in the future. How's that for positive thinking?
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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02-17-2009, 12:19 PM
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#37
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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The closest I can find to bullishness these days are hints that things aren't falling apart quite as fast; that the decline is more orderly. And then we have another day like today.
I guess I might buy a bit too (a.k.a., "throw good money after bad" again). Sigh.
These last 4 or 5 months have seemed like a lifetime: a lifetime of vanishing savings!
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02-17-2009, 12:21 PM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Extrapolating today's ~250 point drop in the Dow we should hit 0 in a month or so at that point it will be quite safe to turn bullish.
I am busy looking for loose change in my couch's which I will use to purchase America's Fortune 500 at Dow 0. Looking forward to firing some CEOs..
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02-17-2009, 12:24 PM
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#39
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
The more bulls are seen as part of the lunatic fringe, the better. Think about the folks predicting financial meltdown 18 months ago.
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Exactly! I think we can take some comfort when the few lone voices out there that were predicting meltdown 18 months ago start voicing cautious optimism today.
Oh - it looks like the Kass article is available on the "free" part of the site. It's long, rational is later in the article and predictions are on the last page 7. Kass: Fear and Loathing on Wall Street
Audrey
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02-17-2009, 12:29 PM
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#40
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,083
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I'm Bullish depending on the time frame.
Over the next week to year I am not expecting any large gains in the DOW and some more bad news. In 10 years I expect we will see a lot of growth.
Like CyclingInvestor, I am almost completely in individual stocks and my dividend income over the last year is roughly flat.
Just bought some more KFT today. And wouldn't add to any banks I currently own for quite some time (not as smart as he about getting out of all of them earlier, although I did get out of a couple).
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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