Any Bulls Left?

[FinanceDude]

Call it dumb luck, but my feeling was that the stimulus package would not stimulate Wall Street, so over the last 3 weeks I quietly moved more to cash and short term bonds for my clients and in my own portfolio.......

If I had done that in December of 2007, maybe Buffet and Munger would be calling me........

 

[Dawg52]

Call it dumb luck, but my feeling was that the stimulus package would not stimulate Wall Street, so over the last 3 weeks I quietly moved more to cash and short term bonds for my clients and in my own portfolio.......

It's the storm before the calm.

 

[ziggy29]

If I had done that in December of 2007, maybe Buffet and Munger would be calling me........

Buffett and Munger should be calling the voices in my head telling me to get out on Halloween 2007. Maybe they would have acted on it, unlike me...

 

[Nords]

However, my grandson just entered the workforce one year age with a great job in the medical field. I'm trying to get him to buy into the market now. At 21, what does he know about stocks and the future of the market; but I tell him there are thousands of people out there that will contimue to make this country succeed and for the market to act in a bullish fashion. It is not for him to reason why, it is for him to invest and high. What better chance to get into the market. Does anyone out there feel the same?

My nephew the Army Ranger joined the workforce in summer 2007 and finally exited the training pipeline last fall. He just made 1LT and he's spending 2009 (maybe part of 2010 too) in Iraq. Since the Army is paying almost all of his bills right now he's maxing out the Savings Deposit Program, his TSP, and his IRA.

After all of that he still has $500/month savings to put in his taxable account, and he's looking at an international equity index fund. He says that stock markets are among the least of his worries these days.

 

[ziggy29]

After all of that he still has $500/month savings to put in his taxable account, and he's looking at an international equity index fund. He says that stock markets are among the least of his worries these days.

If I knew my job would still be here for me in 10-15 years, I wouldn't be the least bit concerned about the stock market either. If I knew that I'd be perfectly fine with it staying depressed for a few more years of accumulating at low prices. Really it's the combination of a crashing market and a terrible employment situation which form the unsettling one-two punch. Either one by itself wouldn't alarm me, but both together (as usually happens, unfortunately) are scary.

 

[REWahoo]

He just made 1LT and he's spending 2009 (maybe part of 2010 too) in Iraq.... He says that stock markets are among the least of his worries these days.

Yep. The military can often be a lot like real estate - it's all a matter of location, location, location.

 

[unclemick]

Yep. The military can often be a lot like real estate - it's all a matter of location, location, location.

Hmmm - after three tours of Iraq the black sheep of the family(M^*ine) is in Afgansitan. Wife got out of the Navy and bought them a house in 2007 in - drum roll please - California!

A place which 'could' replace New York City!' in future Pace Picante Sauce ads.

I don't suppose I'll get a royalty out of that idea.

Hey - this market may grind out so long - I'll take 'Bull' anyway I can get it.



heh heh heh -

 

[thefed]

I run into a lot of people in my line of work.

It's downright AMAZING how many people think investing in todays stock market is suicide. I was talking to an accountant yesterday who says he doesnt even put money into his 401k any more---he cant "take it' any more. He seemed to be about 35. A mortgage broker, age 40?, literally laughed at me when I told him I was still investing regularly in my Roth. Not chuckled....LAUGHED "hahahaha, you must want to get slaughtered huh? I will never, EVER be investing in stocks for as long as I live...it's stupid"


ummm....yeah

 

[W2R]

Buffett and Munger should be calling the voices in my head telling me to get out on Halloween 2007. Maybe they would have acted on it, unlike me...

Ah, yes, how well I remember Hallowe'en, 2007. I moved every taxable cent I had from money market into the Vanguard 500 VFINX on that day.

 

[2B]

If I knew I was going to places where a significant number of people that don't like me have automatic weapons, RPGs and high explosives, the stock market wouldn't be my biggest concen either. Being young and effectively with no savings also reduces his market worry.

I have significant assets and hope to live off them soon. No one has shot at me for years. Therefore, I am worried about the market.

 

[TromboneAl]

I run into a lot of people in my line of work.

It's downright AMAZING how many people think investing in todays stock market is suicide. I was talking to an accountant yesterday who says he doesnt even put money into his 401k any more---he cant "take it' any more. He seemed to be about 35. A mortgage broker, age 40?, literally laughed at me when I told him I was still investing regularly in my Roth. Not chuckled....LAUGHED "hahahaha, you must want to get slaughtered huh? I will never, EVER be investing in stocks for as long as I live...it's stupid"


ummm....yeah

I hear the same things. I've read a book that talks about the "I can't take it anymore" investment philosophy. The market goes down until the person "Can't take it anymore" and he sells. Then after it's been going up a lot, and everyone is making money he "Can't take it anymore" and jumps in.

----------------

How many of you are thinking "As soon as the market recovers, I'm going to decrease my stock allocation percentage"?

 

[aaronc879]

I'm putting every penny I can into stocks right now. Despite only making $45K-ish per year I already maxed my Roth for the year, i'm putting in enough per pay period to reach $16,000+ in my 401K and i'm putting another $500/mo into a taxable account at Vanguard. I may even w*rk voluntary overtime if it's available(which I never do) so I can sustain this level of saving. The last thing i'd want to do now is stop investing.

 

[W2R]

I'm putting every penny I can into stocks right now. Despite only making $45K-ish per year I already maxed my Roth for the year, i'm putting in enough per pay period to reach $16,000+ in my 401K and i'm putting another $500/mo into a taxable account at Vanguard. I may even w*rk voluntary overtime if it's available(which I never do) so I can sustain this level of saving. The last thing i'd want to do now is stop investing.

Aaron, that is wonderful!! It sounds to me like you are well on your way to retirement, young dreamer or not. Your net worth ought to be pretty substantial in 10-15 years, at that rate.

 

[CuppaJoe]

Perhaps another small sign that the turnaround is near:

New lessons from the crash - Feb. 17, 2009

The last line of this "noisy" article says it all, IMO:

So you don't want to risk more money than you can truly afford to lose.

 

[FIREd]

I run into a lot of people in my line of work.

It's downright AMAZING how many people think investing in todays stock market is suicide. I was talking to an accountant yesterday who says he doesnt even put money into his 401k any more---he cant "take it' any more. He seemed to be about 35. A mortgage broker, age 40?, literally laughed at me when I told him I was still investing regularly in my Roth. Not chuckled....LAUGHED "hahahaha, you must want to get slaughtered huh? I will never, EVER be investing in stocks for as long as I live...it's stupid"


ummm....yeah

Same here. Most everyone I know is disgusted with the stock market and has cashed out at a big loss. They swear they'll never invest money in the stock market again. They probably do think I am dumbsh*t for investing more money in stocks (buying low is such a crazy idea!). Oh well, we'll see who turns out to be the genius in 10-15 years. I hope it will be me!

Anyways, at our current savings rate we will reach FIRE in 2024 (when we'll be 50) even if the stock market returns 0% real from here on out (and I am excluding merit pay increases beyond COLA, promotions, bonuses, and stock options from my projections, i.e. I assume that, at age 35, we have reached the peak of our careers). So from my point of view, the only "risk" I am taking by investing in the market during this difficult time is finding myself FIREd much sooner than expected. That's a risk I am willing to take...

 

[CuppaJoe]

....Really it's the combination of a crashing market and a terrible employment situation which form the unsettling one-two punch. Either one by itself wouldn't alarm me, but both together (as usually happens, unfortunately) are scary.

Yes, very very scary along with depressed real estate prices all over, not to mention various bailouts.

Ziggy, you keep mentioning Halloween '07 which was the day I decided to take two months away from the forum because I was spending too much time here, hearing too much financial "noise."

Going back to "are there any bulls left?," would any of us be more bullish if we looked at losses compared to cost and time rather than paper highs?

Can you slice the timeline to make it look a lot better? About half of what I lost was bought in the '80s--lower cost; the rest in the year 2008--short term losses but if I look long term, it can go either way, we don't know the future, and that is always scary.

There were fears of draught here but the last week has brought the area up to 100% of usual rain fall, hope the fact that the sun came out here means the rain is headed your way.

 

[CuppaJoe]

I run into a lot of people in my line of work.

It's downright AMAZING how many people think investing in todays stock market is suicide. I was talking to an accountant yesterday who says he doesnt even put money into his 401k any more---he cant "take it' any more. He seemed to be about 35. A mortgage broker, age 40?, literally laughed at me when I told him I was still investing regularly in my Roth. Not chuckled....LAUGHED "hahahaha, you must want to get slaughtered huh? I will never, EVER be investing in stocks for as long as I live...it's stupid"


ummm....yeah

thefed, it really is 1972 all over again! I feel young again. The expression then was, "you will lose your shirt," and I, like you, did a full-scale rebellion and went ahead and quietly invested, 100% equities, in small increments. In retrospect many of those people never did invest; I knew one who lived very very frugally.

 

[Nords]

If I knew I was going to places where a significant number of people that don't like me have automatic weapons, RPGs and high explosives, the stock market wouldn't be my biggest concen either. Being young and effectively with no savings also reduces his market worry.

I have significant assets and hope to live off them soon. No one has shot at me for years. Therefore, I am worried about the market.

Somewhere in between the two of you lies a happier medium.

Would it help to run scenarios through FinancialEngines.com or ESPlanner?

How many of you are thinking "As soon as the market recovers, I'm going to decrease my stock allocation percentage"?

"I'm going to take some off the table... and this time I really mean it!!"

A couple years ago it felt really stupid to be putting a cash stash in those measly 6.25% PenFed CDs when the market was returning double digits.

 

[DAYDREAMER]

I'm hedging my bet. DW and I max our 401k's in 2030 lifecycle funds, and the rest of our aftertax money goes into the bank---CD's. One way or another, we should get it right.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Nords, congrats on your nephew's making 1lt (first lieutenant to us in the non-military world, right?), and bless him for his service to us.

This article (Abandon all hope ye still awaiting market rebound, then healing can begin -- chicagotribune.com) in this morning's Tribune struck me--she's saying (I think) that the markets can't recover until there's more negativism. So quit being so optimistic, you guys!!!

(a) If overoptimism is on the way out, Hickey [cofounder of Bespoke] said, the market may be entering a more subdued period that is a precursor to healing. "When you are always hoping for the best, you tend to be disappointed when you don't get it," he said.

so that's good.

but (b): a recent survey of investor sentiment showed a roughly 50-50 split between bears and bulls. Truly negative sentiment would require a lot more pessimists.

 

[audreyh1]

How many of you are thinking "As soon as the market recovers, I'm going to decrease my stock allocation percentage"?

Well, if you are rebalancing you will do this naturally! Yep, I look forward to rebalancing when the market recovers a significant amount.

On the negativism - this is the most negative I have ever seen things in the last 10 years. Way more negative than the dot com crash. It's so negative, that the market news anchors get mad or argue ferociously if anyone dares say anything remotely positive.

Audrey

 

[W2R]

I'm happy with my 45:55 equities:fixed AA. Couldn't be happier.

What DOESN'T make me happy is what this stupid recession has done to my portfolio despite that great AA!!!

I wouldn't want less in equities. That would kill me if the market ever heads back upwards again.

 

[jug]

Well, if you are rebalancing you will do this naturally! Yep, I look forward to rebalancing when the market recovers a significant amount.

On the negativism - this is the most negative I have ever seen things in the last 10 years. Way more negative than the dot com crash. It's so negative, that the market news anchors get mad or argue ferociously if anyone dares say anything remotely positive.

Audrey

If you are in it for the long haul, and don't need immediate or the money within 5 years, then I would say buy. It's simply a dip in our history, a blip on the screen, things do change regardless of how bad they seem

jug

 

[ziggy29]

On the negativism - this is the most negative I have ever seen things in the last 10 years. Way more negative than the dot com crash. It's so negative, that the market news anchors get mad or argue ferociously if anyone dares say anything remotely positive.

I think part of that is because in that bear market, diversification worked like a charm even if you stayed mostly in equities. This time, all equities are getting squashed like a bug with nearly 100% correlation. I'm sure in the end it will be a great time to buy if you can get past all the noise.

 

[W2R]

I think part of that is because in that bear market, diversification worked like a charm even if you stayed mostly in equities. This time, all equities are getting squashed like a bug with nearly 100% correlation. I'm sure in the end it will be a great time to buy if you can get past all the noise.

And not just equities - - a lot of bond funds aren't looking too sharp compared with a year ago, too. I happen to be the not-so-proud owner of such a fund and it does not make me happy!!

And need I even mention the housing market?