Any near term FIRE members reconsidering?

[Major Tom]

This is one of the advantages of a conservative WR - less need to be concerned or nervous about possible corrections/downturns/bad sequences etc. If you're withdrawing the maximum suggested by Firecalc (or even more, if you're one of the folk who profess to be comfortable with a less than 100% success rate), then you may have reason to be more concerned than, say, an individual who has a 2% WR.

If, during good times, you're one of the folk who claim to be comfortable with a 90% Firecalc success rate, I suspect you'll be one of the first to get a bit nervous whenever a bull market takes a breather, or hints that it might be getting ready for a correction or downturn.

I'm not proselytizing for a conservative approach, but am pointing out that if you live a bit closer to the edge, it really helps to be comfortable with edges.

[tuixiu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Major Tom If you're withdrawing the maximum suggested by Firecalc (or even more, if you're one of the folk who profess to be comfortable with a less than 100% success rate), then you may have reason to be more concerned than, say, an individual who has a 2% WR.

Well of course.

On the other hand the person with the goal of a 2% WR might have even less concern since they aren't retired yet, what with need to throw in enough extra working years to have double the nut of the 4% person.

[Corporateburnout]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Live And Learn 40% planned correction ? 100% equity wipe out ? I thought I was conservative .... I look like a rebel

Recent history of the great recession in 2008 the stock market dropped 40%. It would be prudent to plan for another hoping it will not happen.....

[TrvlBug]

DH is still planning to retire next spring and, in fact, we'll most likely pull more $ from our HELOC to fund our remodeling than originally planned. We'll use the cash portion we had saved for the reno to take advantage of the buying opportunity presented.

[BBQ-Nut]

I ain't feeling better....

I am staying put on my holdings however, but I am going to keep my cards close to the vest and not tip my hand on giving notice just yet.

[Live And Learn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut I ain't feeling better.... I am staying put on my holdings however, but I am going to keep my cards close to the vest and not tip my hand on giving notice just yet.

Today is an interesting exercise in trying to stay calm (which I am). But I am thinking of changing my AA to allow me move some $ from cash and short term bonds to equities.

[BBQ-Nut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Live And Learn Today is an interesting exercise in trying to stay calm (which I am). But I am thinking of changing my AA to allow me move some $ from cash and short term bonds to equities.

But is the market at or near the bottom? If not then people may be more inclined to add fuel the fire and bail out of equities

[NW-Bound]

If this bitty blip of the market causes one to do OMY, then he/she should continue to work forever until death.

How is he/she going to keep from jumping off a high-rise in a really bad year like 2002 or 2009?

[Live And Learn]

I don't know if its the bottom, but I do know that we're having a bit of a sale with Dow being 8.6% below high. Will it go lower ? Maybe but I can't predict. I had been thinking of moving from 50/40/10 to 55/35/10. Now seems like as good a time as any.

We'll see what happens re OMY if it keeps going lower. Worst case I think I'll try and get a very P/T job making 6-8k a year to keep me at 3% WR.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nw-bound if this bitty blip of the market causes one to do omy, then he/she should continue to work forever until death. How is he/she going to keep from jumping off a high-rise in a really bad year like 2002 or 2009?

+1


-erd50

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Live And Learn ... Worst case I think I'll try and get a very P/T job making 6-8k a year to keep me at 3% WR.

I would first cut out on the foie gras and truffle, then put my motorhome on blocks, then sell my 2nd home, then eat more ramen instant noodle, etc ...

Oh wait. When was the last time I bought foie gras and truffle? Darn, the 1st step is then the RV'ing curtail. That hurts!

[Major Tom]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I would first cut out on the foie gras and truffle, then put my motorhome on blocks, then sell my 2nd home, then eat more ramen instant noodle, etc ... Oh wait. When was the last time I bought foie gras and truffle? Darn, the 1st step is then the RV'ing curtail. That hurts!

Or sell both homes and go boondocking in the RV!

Oh, hang on, I just remembered that DW wouldn't approve

[NW-Bound]

If it gets really bad, she would not have a choice.

Note that I said "put the motorhome on blocks", not to sell it. That last resort has always been in the plan, heh heh heh...

[rodi]

Today made my belly cringe a little. But it is what it is. I'm not selling anything. I did consider the options if this turns out to be a longer term trend. I don't want to go back to work, and I don't have multiple years of living expenses set aside... but I do have the money for our big Europe trip next year set aside in cash. (Family of 4, all summer, $ set aside are more than half of my planned investment funded spending.) If it continues to be gloomy in spring, we'll postpone the trip so I don't have to sell equities in a down market.

Best case scenario - the market melts down enough to create serious bargains in airfare and rental apartments, all while the dollar gets stronger (yeah right - those two don't go together) and I can take the vacation for less money.

[REWahoo]

For those of you who are nervous about what's going on and weren't around (or weren't paying attention) for the 'market unpleasantness' in 2008/09, try to visualize what happened today continuing for 18 months - and not stopping until the market takes a 50% haircut.

Better buckle up...

[foxfirev5]

Planning to ER in 490 days (but who's counting) I can feel the concern many are feeling. No high income but a steady plodding approach has gotten DW and I in range. My 45% equity allocation isn't in line with many but it got me this far.
I keep telling myself that none of the equities will be sold for at least ten years. Just rebalance a bit but do not sacrifice the cash cushion that will be used for the first few years of ER.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Better buckle up...

Right, Butch. And don't expect a one-day swing to the upside.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo For those of you who are nervous about what's going on and weren't around (or weren't paying attention) for the 'market unpleasantness' in 2008/09, try to visualize what happened today continuing for 18 months - and not stopping until the market takes a 50% haircut. Better buckle up...

+1

When I see the "roller coaster" thread (this one http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ter-73991.html) my first thought is - the ride is just beginning, and we're at the part where just the first couple of cars have begun to point down, but the real drop is still ahead.

[foxfirev5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo For those of you who are nervous about what's going on and weren't around (or weren't paying attention) for the 'market unpleasantness' in 2008/09, try to visualize what happened today continuing for 18 months - and not stopping until the market takes a 50% haircut. Better buckle up...

I started in '72 with my summer job money. The nifty fifty didn't work out for quite awhile. That was the last time I sold at a loss. Know your needs and risk tolerance.
That's what got me through all the following downturns without selling at a loss.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB +1 When I see the "roller coaster" thread (this one http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ter-73991.html) my first thought is - the ride is just beginning, and we're at the part where just the first couple of cars have begun to point down, but the real drop is still ahead.

Here we go! Hang on tight!

Most ER Forum members will be just fine. If indeed the real drop is still ahead, those who buy low (or at least don't sell low) will most likely come out of this better off than they went into it, like last time.

On the other hand - - I notice that my portfolio is still a little larger than it was in January and February of this year. I felt like the market was booming at that time. So, remembering this makes me feel a little better about recent market losses.