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Old 11-25-2008, 01:00 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by freebird5825 View Post
Marry me! I'm just kidding...i'm already taken.
You're not "taken" yet, there's still time...........
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)

This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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Old 11-25-2008, 01:19 PM   #22
Recycles dryer sheets
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Nope - I'm a good guy, no shorting. Just put everything into a neglected asset class - long Treasuries. Hey I'm investing in the good old US of A to boot! That's where my confidence is.

Best investing advice I got from a buddy who retired early was 'It's just like going to the grocery store - just buy stuff on sale'. Of course the difficulty is knowing what's on sale, but after some economic forecasting I judged that the long bond at 5% was a good deal.
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Old 11-25-2008, 01:41 PM   #23
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From today on, this site should be called

"Dreaming-Early-Retirement Forums".
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Old 11-25-2008, 01:59 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
I wonder if Millionaire Mommy Next Door had to change her name?

Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
I'm sure it's mega-multi-millionaire-mommy-next-door. After all, she must have seen this downward trend coming.
Mkay, where is this original post by T-Al? I've had this happen before. Did it get deleted?

Architect, could you explain exactly what your position is? T-bill fund? If it's actual bills, what was your purchase time and rate?
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Old 11-25-2008, 03:01 PM   #25
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No T-Bills, there's never action there, especially now with yields crushed because of financial system liquidity problems. I went to the long end of the curve, where you want to be in a period of declining interest rates. I bought 30 year Treasury bonds in Treasury Direct. A lot of money too - and no fees - I've saved many thousands in fees. Various rates as I DCA'd them over a year at auction, averaging almost 5%.

The difficult part was tuning out all the inflation noise the past two years. I tried to make this point in another post, for some reason people are generally married to the idea of inflation, and just don't seem to understand that inflation isn't the problem right now. What we saw the past year was speculation, not inflation. But now the tide has gone out and we're finding who has been skinny dipping.

The long bond is presently at 3.6%, I'm guessing it will bottom around 3% this cycle, offering a healthy return (even from 3.6% still)

Originally Posted by laurence View Post
Architect, could you explain exactly what your position is? T-bill fund? If it's actual bills, what was your purchase time and rate?
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Old 11-25-2008, 04:06 PM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
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Concerning inflation concerns, it has to do with the fed's policies. Concerns about the growth of the money supply (M2 and M3) are what concern people like me. Check out the relationship below.

M2 tends to be a rough leading indicator of inflation. And the fall of the dollar (up until the last few months) has also contributed to a growing worry about the downward pressure on purchasing power.

This site has a bunch of cool graphs showing a bunch of macroeconomic trends.

With the economy now tanking, fears such as these are less of a concern now. But that doesn't make them less valid at the time.
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