brewer12345 said:
But in the bubble markets like Florida, Nevada, Boston, and (especially) the west coast, it ain't gonna be pretty.
recognizing i'd have a lot to lose if florida went bust--so i do question my own judgment here--i still think florida shouldn't be written-off quite so quickly.
our in-migration & immigration rates are about the highest in the country. we don't just get cheap labor floating in on rafts but also northeast and midwest equity as well as european and south american cash flying in on business class. we'll soon top new york as the third most populous state.
our unemployment rate is about the lowest in the country (3% as of april) with dade & broward counties (bubbleland) leading the state in that. granted these are not all high paying jobs. but we also have a new bio-tech industry cranking up here. assuming none of those little organisms escape and kill us off during a hurricane, we could become another silicon valley over the next 5-10 years.
our geography is limited--in south florida in particular--by the atlantic ocean to the east, keys to the south and the everglades to the west. so redevelopment is fast underway. our long beloved strip "where the boys are" has been converted from spring break mom & pop 2-story motels to 4 & 5 star condo-hotels. i don't like it, but there you have it. progress.
lastly, i would argue that florida was long undervalued. when the winds drop below 110 mph, it truly is quite beautiful here. we don't have the fear of the earth dropping out from under us, but we also are still valued at about half the price of san francisco and where do they go to the beach in the winter? i just hop on my bicycle and head east.
for the my-home-is-part-of-my-net-worth camp, it seems to my untrained eye that florida should remain a reasonably stable environment. for flippers who bought into the last year of the craze here, yeah, they might get hurt.
already we are hearing stories of people walking away from their $50k deposits. mostly these are in new complexes, overpriced from the start, where contract holders are now competing with the developer who hasn't finished building and has much deeper pockets than the flippers. as to those who thought they'd double or quadruple their money in 12 months--not to luxuriate in someone else's misfortune--it sure does make me smile to know i was not so careless with my future.