Anyone bailing out of bond funds?

[haha]

[haha]

I don't know how to annotate the chart above, from a Doubleline presentation this afternoon. The vertical columns from left to right are near term, intermediate, and long term.

The rows, from top to bottom are asset classes: Fixed Income; equities; commodities; FX; and cash.

I saved this chart as an image to my disc, if someone can tell me how to label it I will repost it.

It represents the Doubline best guess as to the performance of these asset classes. Green is strong positive; yellow medium, and red fail.

[target2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha I don't know how to annotate the chart above, from a Doubleline presentation this afternoon. The vertical columns from left to right are near term, intermediate, and long term. The rows, from top to bottom are asset classes: Fixed Income; equities; commodities; FX; and cash. I saved this chart as an image to my disc, if someone can tell me how to label it I will repost it. It represents the Doubline best guess as to the performance of these asset classes. Green is strong positive; yellow medium, and red fail.

Slide and article here.

Entire Presentation - slides.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by target2019 Slide and article here. Entire Presentation - slides.

These are not the same. The one you referenced is from July, 2012. The different one I posted, is from yesterday, July9, 2013. Notice that several panels have changed color.

Ha

[MichaelB]

Like this? That's an interesting chart. Nothing green covering both short and long term. Like Grantham, likes equities and commodities for the long term.
.
.

[rbmrtn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha These are not the same. The one you referenced is from July, 2012. The different one I posted, is from yesterday, July9, 2013. Notice that several panels have changed color. Ha

Can you provide a link to the chart. The latest I can find is from 06/27

Jeff Gundlach's June 27 Presentation - Business Insider

I like to read Gundlachs commentary.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Like this? That's an interesting chart. Nothing green covering both short and long term. Like Grantham, likes equities and commodities for the long term. . .

Perfection Michael. Where can I learn how to do this? I see interesting charts from time to time, but do not know how to present them on ER.org.

Ha

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rbmrtn Can you provide a link to the chart. The latest I can find is from 06/27 Jeff Gundlach's June 27 Presentation - Business Insider I like to read Gundlachs commentary.

This was presented yesterday, by Jeff Sherman, one of the Doubleline managers. The slides are available on Zero Hedge, but his text is still held under review. I listened to the first part, but had to leave before it was over.


DoubleLine Webcast On "The End Of QE As We Know It" With Bond Rout Update | Zero Hedge

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha Perfection Michael. Where can I learn how to do this? I see interesting charts from time to time, but do not know how to present them on ER.org. Ha

Michael beat me too it, but I created an almost identical one by just coloring cells in a spreadsheet, and adding titles. I then saved it in pdf format (MB used jpg, same idea).

But another way, that would work better for more complex items, would be to import it into a drawing program and annotate it from there. Lots of options to choose from, I was able to import that image (after saving to my drive), and use my spreadsheet program to add text overlays.

-ERD50

[MichaelB]

I cheated. Did the chart on a spreadsheet, added the labels you named, took a snapshot, saved it as a jpg and uploaded it. (I hope I'm not violating any copyright here).

Edit - just saw ERD's post, we had the same idea.

[Lsbcal]

I did some analysis of intermediate bond funds to see what the real compounded returns were in the last rate rise from Jan 2003 to Feb 2007. During that time the 5 year Treasury went from 3.1% to 4.7% (it's at 1.5% now). Here are the real returns for that period (CAGR's):

1.7% .....for PTTRX, Pimco Total Return
0.7% ....for VBTLX, Vanguard Total Bond Market
1.5% ....for DODIX, Dodge & Cox Income
0.1% ... for VFITX, Vanguard Intermediate Treasury
-0.1% ... for Tbills

Remember that rate ramp started at a 3.1% yield. So we might expect near zero real returns for an extended period of time going forward. Doesn't make me feel really good but at least helps to set my expectations.

Here is a picture of the 12 month rolling returns roller coaster (left scale is for the 5 year Treasury yield):

[ERD50]

Here's a sample, imported and some dummy text entered in a SS program, and exported as a pdf (using LibreOffice, I'm sure excel is similar).

-ERD50

[MichaelB]

Mr. Ha, one way to capture an image you see elsewhere is to use "Screenhunter". Download ScreenHunter Free Free It is free, lets you identify an image on your screen, take a "snapshot", which it files for you, and then you can upload to a post here.

Another way is to take the screen short, upload the image to a free hosting site such as photobucket, and then insert the image from there using the "insert image" function

[haha]

Thanks for the suggestions you guys.

Ha

[rbmrtn]

If you are viewing in a browser most images can be saved/copied by right clicking on the image then select save or copy from the menu. Then you can put it where you want.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Another way is to take the screen short, upload the image to a free hosting site such as photobucket, and then insert the image from there using the "insert image" function

What is the difference between "Attached Thumbnail" and "Attached File"? I see that mine comes up as a file that must be downloaded to display, and your showed up as a thumbnail that displays in-line (at least on my browser, Chromium).

I didn't see any options for this in the "Manage Attachments" - it might just be how it handles pdf versus jpg & png? I'll try that:

Yep, pdf did not display in-line for me.

-ERD50

[veremchuka]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leon44 Yes I was aware of the equities. The fact that it is not a "pure" 100% bond only fund does not bother me. I do include it as bonds in my AA. I figure if the big boys categorize it as a high Yield Bond fund that is good enough for me. I have also owned FAGIX for a while. I just added to it. Relatively speaking I have been pleased with FAGIX. Thanks for the insight. It's always good to get other investors perspectives.

Just in case you did not know Larry Swedroe considers the Vanguard HYC Bond fund as 25% equity 75% fixed income not 100% FI re your AA.

[MRG]

Pic pic. It's free.

[1st Tee]

Quote:

Originally Posted by roger r I am pretty much a buy and hold guy and haven't made any major adjustments to my portfolio other than some informal balancing for a few years. I noticed my Fidelity intermediate bond fund's asset value YTD has already declined more than any hopes of interest income for the year and am think on bailing out of anything longer than short term. I am looking for opinions?

My mother is in her 70's and has an investment manager with one of the big firms.
I don't give her advice but from time to time she wants me to review her account statements.
Over the years I have gain a lot of respect for him.
She has a good stream of income from the different funds he has her in and
the balance is still growing.
I keep telling my mother to enjoy herself, spend more money and don't leave any for us.
Really enjoy yourself, take that trip with your girl friends to Europe that you keep talking about.

Anway, her investment firm and the manager started reducing her
allocation to bonds. This started late last year.

[gcgang]

In an interview with Investment News June 10, Dan Fuss of Loomis said "IF ALL YOU ARE DOiNG iS REINVESTING, gradually rising rates are a wonderful thing" (caps mine). If you are taking income...