Anyone else follow ECRI (Economic Research Council Institute)? ECRI | Home
I have been following them since 1999, and their economic cycle predictions have been eerily accurate.
Well today they came out with a new amazing prediction from their model:
A U.S. future economic growth gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday. WLI Growth At 26-Year High
This runs totally counter to my instincts which have led me to assume we would have a very weak recovery due to our severely weakened financial system. A lot of professionals hold this view as well. This prediction says we are way wrong.
Even though I have followed ECRI for a long time, I have never taken action on their predictions because my investing strategy has no room for predictions. Nevertheless, even as a spectator I find their macro calls fascinating.
I really look forward to seeing how this one plays out!
P.S. For those wondering about what other stuff ECRI predicts, they also predict inflation cycles. Peruse their web site - in particular this page Recession-Recovery Watch
In April ECRI predicted the recession to end this summer. They also predicted the start of the recent recession to within a month of what the NBER finally declared almost a year? later.
ECRI publishes their model results every Friday morning and there is usually an associated press release. I check their "Resources" and "News" pages almost every Friday to get the latest.