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Old 02-14-2021, 11:26 PM   #81
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Thanks for these "new toys" Do you know if this one https://calculator.ficalc.app accounts for Social Security or do I have to put it in as "Additional income"? I looked but couldn't find out if it does or not.
Well, when I used it for the first time, yes, I put SS in as additional income, and checked "inflation adjusted."
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Old 02-15-2021, 05:53 AM   #82
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I’m confused

You said “ I run a different calculator “. Do you have a link to the calculator you run?
RIP is fidelity Retirement Income Planner (RIP) I would expect it has been linked.


I did not say RIP was a new to the thread calculator.
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Old 02-15-2021, 08:37 AM   #83
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Well, when I used it for the first time, yes, I put SS in as additional income, and checked "inflation adjusted."
Thanks! It made a pretty big difference when I tried it without, and then with, SS. I liked the result with much better, even when I gave SS a 25% haircut!
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Old 02-15-2021, 09:34 AM   #84
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I just tweak the numbers until I get 100%......easy peasy.
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Old 02-15-2021, 12:17 PM   #85
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I was going through some old bookmarks and found an interesting article: Are You Checking the Portfolio Too Often? — Investment Masters Class (Not quite the same as checking FireCalc but some of the points probably apply.)
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Old 02-15-2021, 02:53 PM   #86
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I used to run it a lot in the first few years, now hardly ever.
I do run Fido's planner a couple times a year usually when contemplating a large purchase.
I like that it never comes back with a "You may run short of funds xx" any more. Shocking how the lack of 2020 spending, market increases in 2020, and one year closer to death bumped the likely end balance number when I looked in January.
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Old 02-15-2021, 03:13 PM   #87
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I used to run it a lot in the first few years, now hardly ever.
I do run Fido's planner a couple times a year usually when contemplating a large purchase.
I like that it never comes back with a "You may run short of funds xx" any more. Shocking how the lack of 2020 spending, market increases in 2020, and one year closer to death bumped the likely end balance number when I looked in January.
For several years, I kept telling FIRECalc that my time horizon was (still) 30 years. I finally quit doing that. I found I could use less and less equities in my mix of assets and still come out okay. I guess there IS one advantage of getting older, but YMMV.
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Old 02-15-2021, 06:40 PM   #88
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For several years, I kept telling FIRECalc that my time horizon was (still) 30 years. I finally quit doing that. I found I could use less and less equities in my mix of assets and still come out okay. I guess there IS one advantage of getting older, but YMMV.
Interesting observation. Do many early early-retirees (who are now >65 years old) actually reduce their retirement planner assumptions below 30 years? I'm still using 37 years, soon to notch down to 36, but hadn't really thought about when to stop decrementing.

It seems to me that keeping 30 years as your horizon, even into your 70s is another conservatism for the belt and suspenders set. Then again, once into your 70s it is not obvious that retirement planners are very useful any more.
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Old 02-15-2021, 07:13 PM   #89
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Interesting observation. Do many early early-retirees (who are now >65 years old) actually reduce their retirement planner assumptions below 30 years? I'm still using 37 years, soon to notch down to 36, but hadn't really thought about when to stop decrementing.

It seems to me that keeping 30 years as your horizon, even into your 70s is another conservatism for the belt and suspenders set. Then again, once into your 70s it is not obvious that retirement planners are very useful any more.
I only recently stopped using 30 years on FireCalc et al. That was due, not so much the heart attack, but the magnitude heart attack. I also realized I am going on 64 and for years had been using 90 as max-age. If I inadvertently limped a year or two past that it wouldn't upset the numbers. But four years past 90 is a small enough chance. With the current medical status it's pretty ridiculous.
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Old 02-15-2021, 07:15 PM   #90
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Interesting observation. Do many early early-retirees (who are now >65 years old) actually reduce their retirement planner assumptions below 30 years?
I update mine yearly to whatever number of years takes me to the age at which the tables say my chance of living past that age is less than 10%. I try to avoid putting large amounts of conservatism in too many input variables.
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Old 02-15-2021, 09:54 PM   #91
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Interesting observation. Do many early early-retirees (who are now >65 years old) actually reduce their retirement planner assumptions below 30 years? I'm still using 37 years, soon to notch down to 36, but hadn't really thought about when to stop decrementing.

It seems to me that keeping 30 years as your horizon, even into your 70s is another conservatism for the belt and suspenders set. Then again, once into your 70s it is not obvious that retirement planners are very useful any more.
I just turned 66 and I still use 30 years as my goal...
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Old 02-16-2021, 04:15 AM   #92
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Interesting observation. Do many early early-retirees (who are now >65 years old) actually reduce their retirement planner assumptions below 30 years? I'm still using 37 years, soon to notch down to 36, but hadn't really thought about when to stop decrementing.

It seems to me that keeping 30 years as your horizon, even into your 70s is another conservatism for the belt and suspenders set. Then again, once into your 70s it is not obvious that retirement planners are very useful any more.
Unless health information changes, I will continue to use 95 as the ending year, so 34 is the remaining number and take it down yearly.
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Old 02-16-2021, 08:21 AM   #93
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I just tweak the numbers until I get 100%......easy peasy.
Ditto - but the only input that I can really really tweak is yearly expense :-)
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Old 02-16-2021, 09:52 AM   #94
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No. Ive used it once or twice. Its clunky imo. I dont need some advanced calculator to predict if Ill have enough money. I can do that on my own. Its not that hard to figure out what you need. If you know how much you spend, basic arithmetic will let you know how much you needs.
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Old 02-16-2021, 10:17 AM   #95
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No. Ive used it once or twice. Its clunky imo. I dont need some advanced calculator to predict if Ill have enough money. I can do that on my own. Its not that hard to figure out what you need. If you know how much you spend, basic arithmetic will let you know how much you needs.

I think it is kind of hard.

You need to account for inflation, $50K income today has the buying power of $122k in thirty years.
How do you calculate stock market returns?
How do you incorporate major pullbacks in the market.


Can you show the basic arithmetic to tell me what I need?
I spend $55,000 a year in today's dollars and 66yrs old I'll say the money needs to last 25 years.
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Old 02-16-2021, 10:26 AM   #96
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No. Ive used it once or twice. Its clunky imo. I dont need some advanced calculator to predict if Ill have enough money. I can do that on my own. Its not that hard to figure out what you need. If you know how much you spend, basic arithmetic will let you know how much you needs.
Actually, FireCalc doesn't predict whether you'll have enough money. No calculator or application can do that. It shows you whether your stash would have lasted every other retirement period in the past, for as long as market data has been available.

If you're invested in less volatile instruments than equities, then you can probably get by with just basic arithmetic, as long as you factor in for inflation. One thing that FireCalc does, which can be helpful, is to account for the risk inherent in the sequence of returns, which can be a significant factor for any long-term investment in stocks. If you tried to do that on your own, you'd have a lot of data to input!

FireCalc has a lot of fans here but, of course, there are many other ways of doing things.
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Old 02-16-2021, 11:16 AM   #97
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Old 02-16-2021, 11:21 AM   #98
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Actually, FireCalc doesn't predict whether you'll have enough money. No calculator or application can do that. It shows you whether your stash would have lasted every other retirement period in the past, for as long as market data has been available.

I understand the Firecalc uses historical market returns for it's calculations. It far from perfect, but what else is there?


If you're invested in less volatile instruments than equities, then you can probably get by with just basic arithmetic, as long as you factor in for inflation. One thing that FireCalc does, which can be helpful, is to account for the risk inherent in the sequence of returns, which can be a significant factor for any long-term investment in stocks. If you tried to do that on your own, you'd have a lot of data to input!

FireCalc has a lot of fans here but, of course, there are many other ways of doing things.[/QUOTE]


My post was mostly to point out that it is not all the simple.
You might say 30 yrs, $50k a year, I need $1.5M. But wait, what about inflation, OK I can inflate my $50k by 3% each year and add them all up and I now need $2,274,226, be cause my last check needs to be $122k.
Now we need to back out any growth of your nest egg. Not all that easy.
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Old 02-16-2021, 11:58 AM   #99
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I understand the Firecalc uses historical market returns for it's calculations. It far from perfect, but what else is there?


If you're invested in less volatile instruments than equities, then you can probably get by with just basic arithmetic, as long as you factor in for inflation. One thing that FireCalc does, which can be helpful, is to account for the risk inherent in the sequence of returns, which can be a significant factor for any long-term investment in stocks. If you tried to do that on your own, you'd have a lot of data to input!

FireCalc has a lot of fans here but, of course, there are many other ways of doing things.

My post was mostly to point out that it is not all the simple.
You might say 30 yrs, $50k a year, I need $1.5M. But wait, what about inflation, OK I can inflate my $50k by 3% each year and add them all up and I now need $2,274,226, be cause my last check needs to be $122k.
Now we need to back out any growth of your nest egg. Not all that easy.[/QUOTE]

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Old 02-16-2021, 12:08 PM   #100
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I used a similar program but stopped using it a few years before retirement. I no longer needed it.

Problem seems easy enough to me....simply stop using it.
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