Anyone really worried? I am...

[alphabet soup]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 Be careful, or you will provoke another flurry of moderator edits. [moderator edit].

Over 6200 posts When do you find the time to leave your mom's basement?

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by alphabet soup Over 6200 posts When do you find the time to leave your mom's basement?

Actually, like Uncle Mick, I am really a 16 YO girl in Missoula.

[cyclone6]

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Originally Posted by alphabet soup Over 6200 posts When do you find the time to leave your mom's basement?

The best thing to do with people like Brewer12345 is to just ignore them. I've known a few of the type in my real life - and tried to reason with them and explain things like logic, thoughtfulness and decency. Unfortunately, when you see such well thought out responses as Brewer12345 has posted recently, you can see that there is no hope. They derive some sort of pleasure out of being an arrogant, ignorant fool.

As much as I'd like to, I can't get angry at them. They typically have miserable lives, hate themselves, and try to make themselves feel better by being rude, loud and obnoxious. In the end all I can do is feel sorry for them and hope that one day they'll become an admirable person instead of pitiable...

Getting back on subject for just a minute, I mentioned that I am no expert in the world of finance. I am not the only one. I was in Thailand in 1997 when the Asian economic crisis first erupted when the Thai baht was broken by George Soros and his hedge fund. The crisis quickly spread to Indonesia and Malaysia. Several months later Korea was inflicted with the "Asian flu". Japan teetered, and damn near collapsed with all of the bad loans they had outstanding in the region.

Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin (secretary of the treasury at the time) responded - with (I think) 6 interest rate cuts in the US in just over a couple of months. Most if not all were made outside the regular FOMC meetings - a very unusual occurance.

I saw Rubin years later on a network news show - long after the Clinton administration was out of power, and he was asked about the Asian financial meltdown. His response was refreshingly honest. He said that nobody in Washington really knew what to do - that globalization and all the free flows of capital and the interactions were unknowns. So the decision was made to cut rates drastically in the US - and in effect flood the world with money. It worked, in the end, and the immediate crisis was adverted. But I still find it rather amazing that the sectretary of the treasury admitted that they really didn't know exactly what was happening, or what remedy could stem the tide...

[brewer12345]

Ho5uc, is that you?

Think about it: bolding usernames, multi-paragraph posts that don't lead anywhere, relentless doom & gloom.

You might want to spend a little more time hanging out around the bar before you try to cut a regular down to size, shorty. You might pick the wrong hombre the mess with.

Just a friendly suggestion.

[sgeeeee]

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Originally Posted by cyclone6 The best thing to do with people like Brewer12345 is to just ignore them. . . . As much as I'd like to, I can't get angry at them. They typically have miserable lives, hate themselves, and try to make themselves feel better by being rude, loud and obnoxious. In the end all I can do is feel sorry for them and hope that one day they'll become an admirable person instead of pitiable.... . .

Alright, don't be afraid to tell us the truth now, Brewer. Are you miserable? Do you hate yourself? We're here for you, man.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by sgeeeee Alright, don't be afraid to tell us the truth now, Brewer. Are you miserable? Do you hate yourself? We're here for you, man.

Well, my friend UncleMick says its just when its "that time of the month." Otherwise, she says I am a pretty happy, well-adjusted girl. Aside from the times I score some crystal meth.

[Nords]

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Originally Posted by cyclone6 The best thing to do with people like Brewer12345 is to just ignore them. I've known a few of the type in my real life - and tried to reason with them and explain things like logic, thoughtfulness and decency. Unfortunately, when you see such well thought out responses as Brewer12345 has posted recently, you can see that there is no hope. They derive some sort of pleasure out of being an arrogant, ignorant fool. As much as I'd like to, I can't get angry at them. They typically have miserable lives, hate themselves, and try to make themselves feel better by being rude, loud and obnoxious. In the end all I can do is feel sorry for them and hope that one day they'll become an admirable person instead of pitiable...

All right, you guys, go to neutral corners for a minute. Brewer, you've seen this behavior before and you oughta know better than to get hooked by it!

Cyclone, amid some impatient invective, Brewer gave you a fairly reasonable suggestion that you position your asset allocation according to your concerns. That suggestion was four pages of posts ago.

You continue to use a "Yeah, but" tactic that's commonly used by other posters who have proven to be more interested in trolling than in arriving at a conclusion and a course of action. I'm not saying that you're trolling, but you're making it hard for the posters who've seen this a few times before to tell the difference.

When each poster has countered your concerns, you've gone on with "Yeah, but..." and raised additional concerns that continue to be addressed, received another "Yeah, but..." and so on.

While you've raised lots of concerns that could keep a lot of people awake at night, what do you propose to do about it? Are you going to go to 100% Treasuries or cash? Are you going to short the market? Or are you just going to keep on hammering away at your "Yeah, but..." theme? What's your decision, or what's your point?

Hence the frustration you're seeing from other posters. So I suggest that you arrive at some sort of conclusion, agree to revisit the situation in a few months, and get on with your life.

[cyclone6]

I am really surprised. I thought this board was about specific knowledge, opinions and debate. I can't see where a little back-and-forth, debate, is detrimental. The fact is many of us - or let me speak just for myself - don't know where the economy is headed or the best investment strategy to currently follow. The "yeah, buts" you complain about are simply attempts to flesh out the posters thoughts to back up their statements. Debate.

And I had a pretty good one going with 3 Yrs to Go. Point-to-point. On subject.

There was even a post that commended the discussion:

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Originally Posted by alphabet soup Just when a civil, intelligent discourse gets underway, jackass will jump and bray.

The main idea here is that thoughts can be changed - molded - by hearing others thoughts opposite to your own. Maybe alter what you might do. I am no troll...I am sitting on a bunch of cash that I am looking to invest. I was simply looking for others opinions on where we might be next year, or 5 years from now. Like alphabet soup, if I do hang it up in the next few months then the tired, old "it doesn't matter if you have 30 years" has no meaning to me...what happens in the near term certainly does.

You forgot to mention that Brewer's first comment to the discussion, which seemed to be going along just fine at the time, other than the helpful "position yourself accordingly", included the terminology "piglet sodomizers". Quite constructive.

If this board is nothing more than yet another cheerleading forum, where only those who agree with the conventional wisdom that can be heard anywhere, then in my opinion it falls far short of what it should be - an open forum to air ideas and theories on investment and conditions that drive investment direction. In short, the free speech the internet is supposed to be about.

But I must admit that I would miss the opportunity to throw around contrarian theories advocated by many mainstream economists and academia much more knowledgeable than myself - and hearing what the masses either in or considering FIRE think...

And please don't worry about me getting on with my life. My life is going on just about as well as I could hope - hell, I even broke 90 on the golf course yesterday. I just want to figure out how to invest the money I have as smartly as possible, hang 'em up, continue my overseas adventures and maybe, just maybe, score that hole-in-one one day...

[haha]

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Originally Posted by cyclone6 The "yeah, buts" you complain about are simply attempts to flesh out the posters thoughts to back up their statements. Debate.

Stop and think. Including the post above, you have 22 posts, all very recent. Maybe the posters you refer to aren't really interested in "backing up their statements". Why should they be? Are you paying them? Have you given them anything of value?

Brewer has given things of value, and a number of people here have benefited from his knowledge and experience. So maybe you need a little time in grade?

You could look into the archives here and you will find that not everyone here is a buy and hold set-it and forget-it investor, but maybe they aren't interested in giving you a brief about why, or in molding you or even being molded by you.

Ha

[chinaco]

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Originally Posted by cyclone6 I am really surprised. I thought this board was about specific knowledge, opinions and debate. I can't see where a little back-and-forth, debate, is detrimental. The fact is many of us - or let me speak just for myself - don't know where the economy is headed or the best investment strategy to currently follow. The "yeah, buts" you complain about are simply attempts to flesh out the posters thoughts to back up their statements. Debate.

You are correct, there is a bit of group think on this board. My thoughts and opinions are very similar to many on this board. Mainly because I have studied. I have ingored some of the known sage advice (and paid the price). As I approach ER the conservative yet simple aproaches seem to fit.


I think it is OK to have a little debate. Some of us might get a little thin skinned if our wisdom is challenged. As far as I am concerned, fire away. What you probably need to know is if you get too combative... people will begin to ingore you.


I do not think most people are into big challenges and debates, rather sharing perspectives. If you make point-by-point counter arguments and challenges... It will be a turn-off.


Plus, When it comes to the market, there are a number of ways to win... it just depends on how much risk one is willing to accept. Hopefully people understand the risks and what the risks mean (how they can bite your portfolio and impact one's FI and/or timing of ER).

[Spanky]

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Originally Posted by chinaco ......... there is a bit of group think on this board.

or another board -- If one is interested in debates, a board or forum focusing on political topics may be a better fit.

[Texas Proud]

Cyclone...

You say yourself that you don't know finance... but want to challenge a number of the people on this board without knowing anythng about them...

I have an MBA in FINANCE (international finance I might add)... and I will tell you that I would put Brewer and Saluki (sp...sorry) opinions higher than mine when it comes to advice and investing...

You came with a gloom and doom post... and most people said they don't care.. you said you do. I gave my opinion that you don't invest for the gloom and doom OR the everything is rosy possibilities.... You invest for the most likely outcome AND one that will protect on downturns and make you money on upturns... you dont' change because the winds change..

But you keep trying to stay on the gloom and doom... sorry... I just don't care to 'debate' something that makes no difference to me. Even if you are 100% correct (which I doubt... but just for 'debate')... will I change my investments NO... debate over..

[Mwsinron]

Obviously we all know we will have another bear market. When someone can pin point it without a shadow of a doubt let me know.

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by Texas Proud But you keep trying to stay on the gloom and doom... sorry... I just don't care to 'debate' something that makes no difference to me. Even if you are 100% correct (which I doubt... but just for 'debate')... will I change my investments NO... debate over..

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Except that I can't even be bothered at an attempt at a debate over this stuff any more, hence the immediate resort to piglet sodomizer references.

[Nords]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 Except that I can't even be bothered at an attempt at a debate over this stuff any more...

Whenever we feel this way about a post we should probably hit the "Mark as read" button and move on.

[Gone4Good]

Cyclone6,
I think Nord's summed up a lot of sentiment with this statement:

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Originally Posted by Nords While you've raised lots of concerns that could keep a lot of people awake at night, what do you propose to do about it? Are you going to go to 100% Treasuries or cash? Are you going to short the market?

None of those strategies is without risk.

A more interesting question, though, is when would you actually feel comfortable buying equities? Were you putting money into the market in 2003 after it corrected by ~45%? I was. I did so because I looked around at the world and US economy and concluded it wasn't that bad. I look around at the world and US economy today and see that it is pretty darned good. In order to buy equities, you have to be optimistic about the future.

But for someone who apparently only sees the dark cloud behind every silver lining would you really put money into equities at a time when economic conditions warranted P/E multiples in the single digits?? My guess is you'd get even more conservative, be even more concerned that the end is near, pull back on what little risk you do have, and miss the opportunity you may have waited 50 years for.

[cyclone6]

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go A more interesting question, though, is when would you actually feel comfortable buying equities? Were you putting money into the market in 2003 after it corrected by ~45%?

Actually, I did alright. I put a good chunk of money into the market in the runup to the Iraq war - figuring that everyone was overreacting. I also made a large move 3 weeks before the election in '04 - figuring that Bush was going to win, and that it would be considered a positive event by the market. Lastly, I did well with a large investment in the Fidelity International Discovery fund and EWJ that I bought a few years ago when the international indices were down (especially Japan) and the whole question of the US dollar started to surface.

I have since sold those investments, and with the money I recently was fortunate enough to inherit, am sitting 90% in cash. Most of the sales came very late '06, and a few early '07. I have an investment strategy that I plan to implement, and will probably move into the bond portions very soon. As for the equity, I figure I can afford to sit on the sidelines for awhile and see how the housing/consumer spending issues play out. I'm quite happy making a nice safe 5+ % in MMFs for the time being, with an eye to getting into the equity positions later this year when some time has passed and the effects of the above mentioned are better understood.

I am a believer in buy and hold, and once I get the allocation set up I plan to leave it alone and just rebalance when certain components get too far out of balance - or maybe once a year for tax-loss harvesting. I just don't feel comfortable buying equities when the indicies are all so high...

[d]

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I put a good chunk of money into the market ... figuring that ... made a large move 3 weeks before...figuring that ... a large investment in ... when the ... . I am a believer in buy and hold

try beav3er chees3 ... it's always the right time to buy it

[lswswein]

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Originally Posted by cyclone6 I am a believer in buy and hold, and once I get the allocation set up I plan to leave it alone and just rebalance when certain components get too far out of balance I just don't feel comfortable buying equities when the indicies are all so high...

How can you say you are a buy and hold investor and then give us examples of your great market timing skills? The main issue here is that you seem to want to market time and looking for reasons to do so. If there is something that has been proved not to work on an consistent basis it is market timing. People get lucky once or twice getting in and out of equities and then decide that they have the skill.

-h
p.s: Btw there has been a lot of discussion on bear mkts. Check out the chicken little discussion.

[Milton]

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Originally Posted by lswswein I get the sarcasm but Everything will be ok in the long run. The question my friend is how long do you have? If you have 25+ yrs none of it matters. I bet 2007 will not even register when you look back in 2030.

In the long run, we're all dead. So in a sense you are correct: there is no real point to worrying about anything.

That said, I don’t know how you can so confidently predict that “Everything will be ok”. Perhaps it will; perhaps it won’t. As Delawaredave said, “We don't know”.