Anyone still believe in Bogle?

[Independent]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco Or does Prof. Shiller seem like a slightly more informed intellect. Remember that Prof Shiller saw the current situation coming and clearly. I attended two classes taught by Prof Shiller and he seemed very , ohhh, not humble but like, ordinary guy. Bogle seems like a showman, and people with little time to investigate, love a show. Just wondering if people still believe the Bogle approach. If so are you pumping money into indexes?

If you attended two courses taught by Prof Shiller, than you were a Yale undergrad? or, did you find him in a different setting?

I'm not sure if I see Shiller and Bogle as being incompatible. Bogle says individuals aren't able to beat the market, so just buy in and ride it. Shiller says there is a lot of psychology which causes overreactions, but most mortals can only identify them in hindsight.

What am I missing?

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by plex Give me back my 3 minutes it took me to read this thread

I take it you dont enjoy a good wine..

[bbbamI]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer Dnftt

Took me a minute to understand what you said. I agree. I do have to say that chili makes me burp. Ok, I'm done now.

[Goonie]

Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goonie Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!

Nope - not new - but according to my PM - an adjustment has been made.

heh heh heh - actually a thunderstorm/cold front behind coming thru this part of Missouri - must be the weather.

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?

Funny how some of these guys got out of the market just at the right time. You da man!

[unclemick]

Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge.

heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!

like Bogle's balanced index, policy portfolio - agile, mobile, and hostile.

ok ok it's a stretch but you get the idea. Right?

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by unclemick Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge. heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!

Your probably right. But the sawed off little buzzard makes too much money. I'll have to pull for LSU.

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.

[freebird5825]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.

i just love the part where the cavalry rides in. TY!

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa He was a known problem poster in disguise.

Now that my curiosity has been piqued ...

Is there a cross-reference to his previous screennames?

[bbbamI]

problem poster in disguise...

[saluki9]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?

I've seen plenty of posts and met plenty of people telling me they were out of the market last November,

Yet nobody was posting last November about getting out and non of the self professed experts want to show me their confirms.

[harley]

It matters not whether thou believest in Bogle. Bogle believest in thou.

[Goonie]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.

Cooool...thanks Mods! My troll cage 'Ignore List' is empty again.....'til the next loser comes along.

[DayDreaming]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco Just wondering if people still believe the Bogle approach. If so are you pumping money into indexes?

I've lost faith and I'm going back to good ol' Ameriprise!

[al_bundy]

a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these.

good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these. good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.

Exacta mundo on part one - SEC yield and the Norwegian widow are my faithfull companions. Hence my long running pssst Wellesley humor.

As for part two - nailing the bear timing even within a year or two - 'You're a better man than I am Gunga Din.'

heh heh heh -

[al_bundy]

major bull market tops

1929
1968
2000 or 2007 depending on how you look at it

approximately 40 years between each one

major bear market bottoms
1932
1973
2013?

approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom

there are a lot of smaller bull market tops in between, 1907, 1937, 1919, 1914, 1987, 1966 and too many others

i'm reading The Elliott Wave Principle and there is a section there about some guy who decided to map all the bull/bear markets back in the 1950's or sometime back then. He found that if you look at the number of years/weeks/months between them they all followed a regular pattern. I think his data was up to the 1950's or 1960's and up until 1987 the pattern followed exactly to the year. and the interval period between them also matched up to Fibonacci (aka Leanardo of Pisa) numbers whether it was years, months or weeks. up until 1987 it was 8,9 and then 10 years for bull/bear cycles. first it would be 8 years, then 9 and then 10 and then repeat the pattern.

this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy major bull market tops ----------------------------------------------- approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear

Schrodinger's cat.

heh heh heh - I'm in ER - like the late Bear Bryant's ideal linebacker - stay balanced - that way you never have to open the box to see if the cat is dead or alive.