Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Approaching FIRE date - How do I look?
Old 03-05-2021, 06:36 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 196
Approaching FIRE date - How do I look?

I'm getting close and looking at this summer for my FIRE date (unless offered part time in which case I may stick around to help with transition/pad my cash stash). I will probably earn a little bit having fun in FIRE (bar-tending, leading tours, brewery assistant) but not planning on it. I'd appreciate any insights/advice/rocks you'd like to throw at my situation:

47 Male, Single, Own home outright (HOA responsible for exterior M&R)

My plan is to live off of cash for the balance of 2021 and 2022. Starting in 2023 I will withdraw from my Taxable Investments until they reach about 5X expenses (projected in 2025 if I earn no fun money). At that point, I will start SEPP withdrawals from TSP using expected life expectancy as my payout should increase with my portfolio and mortality. This should also help mitigate excessive RMDs later (if my portfolio does well, this could exceed my expenses in which case I would probably reinvest in my taxable account or Roth if I have any earned income). Shortfalls would be made up with my remaining taxable/cash balance as makes sense at the time, my Roth contributions would be available too if needed. I will take a deferred annuity which will pay about $25K/yr pretax in then-year money starting on my 60th birthday which will be inflation adjusted after age 62. I projected this out in a spreadsheet assuming a 30% market drop the day I FIRE and only 2.5% real returns thereafter (linear but I think 2.5% after a 30% drop is fairly conservative).

Expenses:
2020 Real $35,620 (includes mine and employer paid portion of HI and a sinking fund for auto/HH Maintenance)
2022 Projected $44,900 (Includes full cost of HI on marketplace, projected income taxes, and sinking fund for auto/HH Maintenance; probably conservative)

Assets (Current balances):
TSP (42%C/42%S/16%I): $1,141,250
Roth IRA (Small Cap): $332,430
Non-Ded IRA (Small Cap): $5,290
Taxable (Total Market): $291,530
Cash: $61,214 (will increase by $30K with savings/vacation pay out)
Total: 1,831,700
Off Balance Sheet: HSA ~$40K that I expect to fund in FIRE, Value of home ~$300K realizable

I feel like I'm good but I don't feel good (Nerves). Big decision and not easily reversible. Appreciate the peer review, insights, and encouragement (I hear the water is fine)!

FLSunFIRE
FLSUnFIRE is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-05-2021, 07:57 AM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 140
Seems ok. Roughly $2m net work with expenses less than $40k per year which is below the 4% “rule”.

What are you going to do with your human capital (time, energy and intellect)?
chassis is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 08:41 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 622
I think you are good, and should feel good. If your expenses is as you stated, you should have no problem financially. You just need to figure out what you want to do in retirement and hope you do not find something to double your retirement expenses.
flyingaway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 08:55 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 1,660
You are good to go.

At $45K/year your withdrawal is <2.5%. This is not just a safe withdrawal rate but rather a perpetual withdrawal rate. Normally I would suggest you model your situation in FIRECalc, but honestly there is no point - you are so over-funded that it won't tell you much, other than showing that your sustainable spending level is >$60K/year.

If you are due some Social Security and likely to do some hobby job(s) then you are WAY over the top.

Also, there is no reason for your HSA to be off balance sheet. It is just another account (with very good tax treatment) and is part of your portfolio. Including it is not material to your results, but separating it is not useful.

Congratulations.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 09:53 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 2,448
If you start by paying expenses out of cash/taxable for the first few years I bet you could also manage your mAGI for ACA subsidies.

TSP but no pension or any subsidized retiree health care?
ncbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 12:43 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
Seems ok. Roughly $2m net work with expenses less than $40k per year which is below the 4% “rule”.

What are you going to do with your human capital (time, energy and intellect)?

The only boredom I experience is at work. I'd really like to get enough sleep, read more, exercise more consistently (pretty fit but time limitations keep me from being where I'd like to be), do those fun "jobs", maybe finally learn to play an instrument once I can get in-person lessons (would like to learn guitar but may pick keyboard as I think it would be easier and allow me to learn more theory), stained glass -have the equipment but no time to develop the skills, financial coaching (sporadically in the past and would like to do more, especially with younger folks from lower economic classes), and I'll have to check out pickle ball (Dtail has pretty much convinced me I need to try it).
FLSUnFIRE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 12:53 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill View Post
If you start by paying expenses out of cash/taxable for the first few years I bet you could also manage your mAGI for ACA subsidies.

TSP but no pension or any subsidized retiree health care?

I am planning to qualify for subsidies but will not plan on them as they are at the whims of the politicians. I am budgeting for the full cost. As I've mentioned in other posts, I set up a HELOC in 2019 (original fire date was 2020) to further disconnect my cashflow from "income", so I can defer realized income a bit better to qualify.


No Healthcare, minimum retirement age is 57 so I do not qualify (walking away from golden handcuffs but 10 more years isn't worth being "rich"). I do get a small pension of $25K in 2021 dollars. If I worked to "retirement age" I would have more money than I know what do to with with a pension that would more than cover my expenses and an insane portfolio. At 46 going on 47 I am very healthy but know I am not getting younger (and can feel it) and I can't get time back!
FLSUnFIRE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 01:03 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
You are good to go.

At $45K/year your withdrawal is <2.5%. This is not just a safe withdrawal rate but rather a perpetual withdrawal rate. Normally I would suggest you model your situation in FIRECalc, but honestly there is no point - you are so over-funded that it won't tell you much, other than showing that your sustainable spending level is >$60K/year.

If you are due some Social Security and likely to do some hobby job(s) then you are WAY over the top.

Also, there is no reason for your HSA to be off balance sheet. It is just another account (with very good tax treatment) and is part of your portfolio. Including it is not material to your results, but separating it is not useful.

Congratulations.

Thanks... still scared! I know I'm good by the numbers but am pretty conservative but walking away from a very secure conventional retirement. I feel like that scared little kid at the end of the diving board... the drop is 2' but it looks like I'm cliff diving off a mountain!


HSA is off balance sheet as I don't intend to spend it (can afford max out of pocket from expected withdrawals) and I view it more as an an insurance policy for worst case. If it gets to big, I'll start reimbursing myself and blow that dough!



I really do appreciate this community so much. Can't complain (Top 1% of first world problems?!) but FIRE can be a lonely road...
FLSUnFIRE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2021, 02:31 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 28,918
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLSUnFIRE View Post
Thanks... still scared! ...
We humans are creatures of habit... change is hard.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...target 65/35/0 AA TBD
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2021, 03:45 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Finance Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,550
I've been criticized for this thinking before, but I'll go ahead and say it. I didn't FIRE all at once...instead I left the full-time/high-stress job at Megacorp at age 52 and went to a much lower paying FT *ob for 2 years, then to 20 hours/week for 2 years, and now I do handyman work about 200 hours/year. So mine is more of a "phased" FIRE. But, one thing that helped me was listing out any large "one time" expenses I may have in the coming couple years, then I remained W*rking long enough to save for those items (took less than a year), then left Mega-Corp. This gave me an extra sense of security that I had the money for near-term expenses. I'll give you a fake list below just to get you thinking, but overall it appears you are in great shape.

1) Stain privacy fence - $3,500
2) New furnace - $8,000
3) Leaf guards for gutters - $2,000
4) New engine for my musclecar - $8,000
5) New desktop computer - $1,500

I've since spent all that money except for the furnace...it's 22 years old but still running well. It was nice knowing that I had specifically saved for those items...made it easy to shell out the funds when necessary.
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
Finance Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2021, 03:53 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,846
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
We humans are creatures of habit... change is hard.
Okay if FLSuFIRE does not FIRE this year, you and I need to corner him at the next SWFL get together and no relief until he submits to FIRE.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2021, 04:43 PM   #12
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Feb 2021
Posts: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLSUnFIRE View Post
No Healthcare, minimum retirement age is 57 so I do not qualify (walking away from golden handcuffs but 10 more years isn't worth being "rich"). I do get a small pension of $25K in 2021 dollars.

Your numbers look great to me, congrats. I do have a couple questions. I'm assuming you're a Fed based on your hefty TSP balance. Are you getting that pension right away, or is it being deferred until a later date? Also, what kind of costs are you seeing when shopping for health coverage?
Errollyn is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Results when changing SS start date or Pension start date Clone FIRECalc support 5 06-15-2020 08:10 AM
Preparing for the approaching retirement date? albireo13 Life after FIRE 14 02-08-2020 02:25 AM
Approaching FIRE, immediate annuity in my 50's? Aiming_4_55 Young Dreamers 11 01-12-2016 10:14 PM
Remember Date You Retired?...Know Date You Will Retire? Danny Other topics 35 07-09-2007 12:02 PM
FIRE date fast approaching Lakedog Hi, I am... 11 05-30-2007 04:51 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:21 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.