Are we approaching the threshold of a bull?

[W2R]

Would you people please stop already with the negative vibes? This is a time for celebration and unbridled optimism


Besides, the Dow is still way down, so it's gotta go up, right? RIGHT?

RIGHT!! Happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again, so let's sing a song of cheer again, happy days are here again!

OH wait - - I'd better check my portfolio today before I get too excited. It might not be quite as good as it sounds.

 

[clifp]

12-13 days like this, 1240 or higher - this will happen. I guarantee it. Absolutely, with no doubt. You can take that to the bank.

Now, by which year? That part isn't so clear

Michael I went back and looked at your predictions in my poll. When I was in Vegas a few weeks ago I was shocked to see your Cubs as the series favorites. The Dow is within 50 point when you posted your prediction of a 25% raise.

So how are the wife and kids treating you?

 

[MichaelB]

Michael I went back and looked at your predictions in my poll. When I was in Vegas a few weeks ago I was shocked to see your Cubs as the series favorites. The Dow is within 50 point when you posted your prediction of a 25% raise.

So how are the wife and kids treating you?

Uh-0h. I said

The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%

You had better odds in Vegas. The most likely of the 5 was spouse appreciation. I asked her - she said if that were the case, we're all SOL

 

[freebird5825]

I still have my green onion sprouts in reserve if all other methods fail.
The green onion method consists of trimming them all back to equal height, and assigning each green onion a market entity (stocks, bonds, commodities, cash, etc). Then I let let Mother Nature do her sun/water/soil thing, and see which one grows fastest.
It can get very dicey very quickly, so the green onion test is ONLY to be used as a last resort.

 

[Dawg52]

Well, I'm only down 15.4% from my high. Why am I looking at this? Were doomed and we all know it. Probably a 500-700 point sell off tomorrow. Were screwed.

 

[NW-Bound]

As for my sins, a whole lot of gambling, a fair amount of cursing, a bit of drinking, a very small amount of lying, no stealing, and no where near enough cavorting with loose women

That doesn't sound that bad, though perhaps a bit more than I have done. Let's compare notes.

Gambling: I just spent 1 week in Las Vegas without dropping a single coin in a slot machine. However, some people may frown on stock speculating as gambling. I think of it as inflation risk mitigation. Can't please them all.

Cursing: To whom if you do not work?

Drinking: Is it bad? Catholic priests drink wine. It's OK.

Lying: Was it about your stock performance? Severity of sin depends on how many percents you inflate it.

Stealing: It is not just bad, it can land you in jail. Same here. Absolutely avoid.

Cavorting with women: From Webster.com, 1 : to leap or dance about in a lively manner, 2 : to engage in extravagant behavior. What extravagant behavior are we talking about here?


PS. Did someone just say "Wheee"?

 

[FIREd]

According to a chart I found on MSN, we crossed the 200-day moving average yesterday. But it seems like, to have a turning point, we need to smash right through the average. And we haven't done that yet.

My portfolio's ROI turned positive last night as the dividends I have received since I started investing in 2000 have now just about offset the capital losses. Any market gain from here is a profit. So I can't wait for the next bull market!

 

[Radiophilejapan]

According to a chart I found on MSN, we crossed the 200-day moving average yesterday. But it seems like, to have a turning point, we need to smash right through the average. And we haven't done that yet.

My portfolio's ROI turned positive last night as the dividends I have received since I started investing in 2000 have now just about offset the capital losses. Any market gain from here is a profit. So I can't wait for the next bull market!

Firedreamer, congratulations in getting your portfolio to breakeven - a big feat considering the wild rides along the path.
I'm not a day trader (was for a few months between jobs long time ago, lost most of my savings - I was sanguine and totally unprepared then), but the pundits say that the 50 days MA (some say 90) must cross the 200 days MA (upwards of course) to characterize the "golden cross" or the solidification of a bull market which has not happened yet. Also, over the last few days, S&P 500 has been straddling the 200MA curve, indecisive to cut through which is an indication that one shouldn't load up on stocks, since a bounce back is still possible (end of bear rally). FWIW.

 

[Bikerdude]

According to this article the 200MA has been smashed on the S&P500. The DOW still needs to confirm.

MarketWatch.com Story

 

[Radiophilejapan]

According to this article the 200MA has been smashed on the S&P500. The DOW still needs to confirm.

MarketWatch.com Story

Thanks for the link, Bikerdude. Interesting charts. It seems that the analyst is trying to get confirmation from several indices to support the "breakthrough" event. Those indices are total or partial sub-sets ofS&P500 so there will be a natural strong correlation among them. The Dow suffered more from GM and Citi now gone from the index.

On the other hand, some sectors and regional markets as Emerging Markets have already cleared the golden crossing but I don't have the guts to loading up on them. I ran the analysis on some individual stocks that are also ripe but again, I think it is too risk for me. It is entertaining, though, to follow these charts to see what the news and the experts say.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wow part of my master plan when I turn 70 is to start converting to various religion, in case my current agnostic believe turns out to be wrong.

Just remember a song by Nina Simone, "Sinnerman" from the Thomas Crown Affair soundtrack. She is not the original singer, but I heard it from her first and like her version best.

Sinnerman, where you gonna run to
Sinnerman, where you gonna run to
Where you gonna run to
All on that day

Well I run to the rock
Please hide me I run to the rock
Please hide me I run to the rock
Please hide me lord
All on that day

Well the rock cried out
I can't hide you the rock cried out
I can't hide you the rock cried out
I ain't gonna hide you god
All on that day​

Why bother to run?

 

[al_bundy]

i've been too busy to keep up with the market lately but i've been peeking at blog.afraidtotrade.com every so often and back when SP500 was around 930 - 950 i sold everything in my 401k. cashed out my wife's a few days ago as well. don't know if we are going down to 500 for the SP500, but at the minimum we are due for a correction that is going to last a few months

depending on who you believe we are about to start the last leg down of this bear or it won't bottom until 2012 or 2014. Back in 2002 the market also rallied nicely after 9/11 and in July 2002 started its last leg down

 

[Zathras]

Good, that will give me plenty of time to increase my income flow from dividends at bargain prices

 

[al_bundy]

Robert Prechter had a nice chart on his subscription website last year that showed that in the 1930's stocks bottomed out at double digit dividend yields