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09-17-2008, 11:37 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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09-17-2008, 11:40 AM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
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So what did you tell them?
Ten gold stars if you told them you werent, but they still had to pay their monthly dues for the rest of the year!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-17-2008, 12:21 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
So what did you tell them?
Ten gold stars if you told them you werent, but they still had to pay their monthly dues for the rest of the year! 
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I told them the fact we answered the phone was a good sign.......
BTW, dues are quarterly, not monthly........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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09-17-2008, 12:28 PM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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They'd think they were paying less if you took it out monthly.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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09-17-2008, 12:31 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
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You might want to change to monthly...it'd stink if you guys had to be bought out by the feds 3 days before the monthly checks came in...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-17-2008, 01:15 PM
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#26
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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I've never heard of a FA that didn't conveniently deduct the fee from the client account.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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09-17-2008, 01:25 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Another indicator might be this weekend's newspaper headlines.
If you see words like panic, depression, bear market etc it might be a sign of a bottom.
Hey,
How about "It might be a bottom if..."
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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09-17-2008, 01:36 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,073
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The important question in all of this is how will it effect the changeover to all digital tv? Nobody will be able to afford those converter boxes!
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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09-17-2008, 02:10 PM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
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harley, we will be lucky not to be entertaining ourselves with hand shadows!!!
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09-17-2008, 02:19 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Today was the capitulation -- if it goes up tomorrow. The S&P down 57 points sure feels like we capitulated. Unfortunately, downdrafts usually stop when something just positive enough happens that people think the worst must be over. Herd mentality then takes over and it's off to the races in the other direction.
It's fear and greed. Right now fear is winning big.
We're having this slaughter depite a growing GDP. Of course, everyone knows we're really, really, really in the worst recession since the Great Depression.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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09-17-2008, 02:35 PM
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#31
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,513
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It feels to me as if we are in the opening throes of a panic. Reserve Management is withholding redemptions on their money market and breaking a buck. 3 month T bills are dropping like a rock. Gold had it's biggest one day move ever as faith in the US dollar is falling. T bill rates of 0.233 sure indicates a giant fear of lending, which by it's very nature is deflationary.
Is this all overblown by the stock market? I doubt it, this is further confirmation to me of the 70 percent drop in the BDI shipping index.
However to my way of thinking the total decline is far too meager at this point to be a bottom.
__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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09-17-2008, 02:41 PM
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#32
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
It feels to me as if we are in the opening throes of a panic. Reserve Management is withholding redemptions on their money market and breaking a buck. 3 month T bills are dropping like a rock. Gold had it's biggest one day move ever as faith in the US dollar is falling. T bill rates of 0.233 sure indicates a giant fear of lending, which by it's very nature is deflationary.
Is this all overblown by the stock market? I doubt it, this is further confirmation to me of the 70 percent drop in the BDI shipping index.
However to my way of thinking the total decline is far too meager at this point to be a bottom.
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VIX closed above 36. That's panic.
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09-17-2008, 03:41 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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The VIX hit close to 48 at the end of 2002.
The only positive is that it closed above 1150.
Also take a look at the volume 9.4B today - the previous month it was 1.2B
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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09-17-2008, 07:01 PM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,326
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A few months ago (how many, I've forgotten), Bill Gross claimed in one of his monthly newsletters that the unrealized losses from the sub-prime mortgage mess and all of the financial instruments tied to these mortgages was in the trillions of dollars (again, I've forgotten how many trillions). At the time, I laughed and considered his claim absurd. However, the events of the last week make me wonder whether ol' Bill's estimate wasn't in the right ballpark. If so, then I have no idea how many financial bombs are still primed and waiting to go off deep in the bowels of our few remaining hallowed American financial institutions. We live in interesting times. I wish they were less interesting.
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09-17-2008, 08:58 PM
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#35
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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PETER BERNSTEIN: And that's dangerous. But it's very hard to make the case that returns will be, say, after inflation, more than 6% to 7%.
Oh my God, 6 to 7% AFTER inflation. Bring it on!
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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09-17-2008, 09:22 PM
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#36
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Illinois
Posts: 22
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My vote is : dead cat bounce tomorrow. then roll over and die again...
In any rate, staying in cash for now and if the market rises and I miss the 1st 5-10% - so be it.
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09-17-2008, 10:35 PM
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#37
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,811
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As long as the media has nothing else to whip up into a foam, they will continue to convince folks the end is near.....after the next commercial.
That said, I don't see the bottom any time soon. Way too much debt in dark places that has not yet hit the street. Hang on....it is going to be a rough ride.
__________________
Work? I don't have time to work....I'm retired.
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09-18-2008, 12:00 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,555
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I think we will see Dow 20,000, and S&P 2400., and perhaps the NASDAQ will reach record highs. It is just a matter of time.
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09-18-2008, 05:47 AM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
I think we will see Dow 20,000, and S&P 2400., and perhaps the NASDAQ will reach record highs. It is just a matter of time.
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Please stop saying anything positive. We won't get a real turnaround until 100% of all investors slit their wrists and collapse.
The Porn Channel CNBC had their normal parade of market mover interviews. Everyone said that the market was going lower. They didn't know when it would end but they all said it wasn't over. That's a good sign.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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09-18-2008, 06:10 AM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,555
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Me bad
SELL, SELL, SELL. The crisis is going to get worse before it gets better, the light you see at the end of the tunnel, is a monster train that is going to squish you and all little investor like a penny.
The Dow will hit 2000 before it sees 20,000.
Social Security is going broke.
The terrorist have won.
Iran is going to nuke NYC, and North Korea is going to nuke LA, and Russia will finish off what is left.
Finally, learn Mandarin so that you can ask your future boss, "more tea venerable sir"
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