Join Early Retirement Today
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-18-2008, 06:18 AM   #41
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
Please stop saying anything positive. We won't get a real turnaround until 100% of all investors slit their wrists and collapse.
I'm getting close to digging out a razor blade. Not sure I could do it with my electric razor. Thank god for Tylenol PM. Definitely needed at bedtime right now.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
Dawg52 is offline  
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-18-2008, 06:43 AM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
I tired to buy some Capitulation yesterday but couldn't find a price quote for the stock. The symbol is CHOKE, right?
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 06:47 AM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
Things are getting so bad I might be forced to retire in San Antonio.

I used to dream of having as much money as I've seen flee my portfolio this year. Hell, I used to dream about having what has disappeared this week.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 06:58 AM   #45
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
on cnbc they are always quoting the VIX

did some reading on some blogs over the last few days and in 2002 the VIX didn't spike at the lowest point. it spiked to 40 in July 2002 and the October low was a on a lower VIX.

same here, i think we'll see another big drop sometime next year where the VIX will spike to 40 then a rally, another drop and that will be the end when no one expects it
al_bundy is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:00 AM   #46
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
Things are getting so bad I might be forced to retire in San Antonio.
You've overshot capitulation and landed in purgatory...
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:09 AM   #47
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR View Post
That said, I don't see the bottom any time soon. Way too much debt in dark places that has not yet hit the street.
Yeah, but is the fear of that already priced in, and is the impending reality going to be better or worse than whats priced in?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:14 AM   #48
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,595
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
I think we will see Dow 20,000, and S&P 2400., and perhaps the NASDAQ will reach record highs. It is just a matter of time.
Well, it depends which mental model is most appropriate: the U.S. economy has caught a cold, or the U.S. economy has cancer.

If the latter view applies, then some questions to ponder: Are the easily identifiable tumors in the U.S. economy benign or malignant? If malignant, how easy will it be to excise them before they metastasize? Will the conventional monetary and fiscal solutions work this time around? Are our wise and farsighted gov't officials capable of 'thinking outside the box'? Are they even aware that they're inside a box? :confused: :confused:
socca is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:32 AM   #49
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
Yeah, but is the fear of that already priced in, and is the impending reality going to be better or worse than whats priced in?
I thinks its priced in for the "known unknowns" but not the "unknown unknowns" to quote Rummy.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:37 AM   #50
Recycles dryer sheets
Jeb-NY's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Lost State of Franklin
Posts: 422
Well I moved 4% from cash to equities last week and another 3% at the end of Mondays trading. This was all done in the IRA and Roth accounts. Part of the plan was to sell some similar funds outside the IRA as a way of moving about 3% of cash, the rest was my start to move more into equities and get rid of some of my high expense funds into Vanguard. Problem is I didn't sell the funds outside the IRA not thinking there was a rush and now I feel like I would be selling on a down panic. Don't really need the cash till sometime next year so, still trying to decide.

Jeb
Jeb-NY is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:39 AM   #51
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
on cnbc they are always quoting the VIX
I've had numerous people throw the VIX at me as the indication of future stock moves. There is absolutely no correlation between the VIX and S&P.

The market has opened up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive wave of selling come in later today and crush it again. That might be capitulation. I'll repeat that IMHO market bottoms are not always marked by an identifiable "capitulation." People will go back and point to some big sell off and say that it was there but nobody saw it at the time.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 07:42 AM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,151
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
i think we'll see another big drop sometime next year where the VIX will spike to 40 then a rally, another drop and that will be the end when no one expects it
OK, thanks. I've got that pencilled in on my calendar......
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 08:07 AM   #53
Gone but not forgotten
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
Please stop saying anything positive. We won't get a real turnaround until 100% of all investors slit their wrists and collapse.

.

This is worse than slitting my wrist . I had a dream I went back to work . I was so tired today I couldn't get up until almost ten !
Moemg is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 08:32 AM   #54
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
freebird5825's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
i had a dream that my teeth were coming loose one by one and i had to remove them. it could have been the prime rib and choc cake i had last night...or was it the market conditions insinuating itself into my subconscious?
hang tight...we're all sweating this one out...
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
freebird5825 is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 08:38 AM   #55
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B View Post
I've had numerous people throw the VIX at me as the indication of future stock moves. There is absolutely no correlation between the VIX and S&P.

The market has opened up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive wave of selling come in later today and crush it again. That might be capitulation. I'll repeat that IMHO market bottoms are not always marked by an identifiable "capitulation." People will go back and point to some big sell off and say that it was there but nobody saw it at the time.
Put a daily chart of the VIX above the chart of the S&P.

Then draw 2 horizontal lines on the VIX at 30 & 17

Then draw vertical line from the VIX to the S&P chart where the VIX hits or exceeds the 30 or 17 line for the latest information.

What do you see?

Also look back and see what a prolong time under 17 or over 30 looks like on the s&P.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 09:04 AM   #56
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
If I knew how to post a screen shot, I would show you the chart.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 09:12 AM   #57
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
Shift-printscrn will capture your entire screen. Go into MS Paint and hit "paste". Then use the dotted-box tool in the toolbox near the upper left corner of the screen to cut out what you want, then save the file to a .JPG and attach it to a post. Alt-printscrn will capture just the current active window instead of the whole screen.

In vista, theres a snipping tool in the lower left quickstart area, looks like a pair of scissors on an oval. Click that and it'll bring up a screen where you can outline what you want and then save it.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 09:17 AM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
As long as almost every triple-digit rally in the Dow is met with a wave of selling that brings it down to flatline or worse, the bottom hasn't been found.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 09:38 AM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Vix chart
Extremes in the the VIX can be used to find turning points.

Note - the 30 & 17 are not absolute numbers - it depends upon the time period you are looking at. If the VIX was in a range of 5 to 15 for awhile then that range would show turning points in a generally up market.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg chart.jpg (275.6 KB, 34 views)
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline  
Old 09-18-2008, 09:48 AM   #60
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
Vix chart
All your plot tells me is that during severe down turns in the market people are nervous and the VIX rises and during market up moves people are less nervous and the VIX trades at a lower level.

I don't see a cause and effect or even a reliable sell / buy indicator. Like most forms of technical analysis you can use it to clearly explain what happened.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Bear Market is Over godoftrading Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 19 07-17-2008 07:09 PM
Bear market perspectives clifp FIRE and Money 27 03-22-2008 05:35 PM
Stock Market -- What stage of the business cycle and what is in demand? chinaco FIRE and Money 5 05-19-2007 07:17 PM
secular bear market NYCGuy FIRE and Money 55 03-14-2006 12:54 AM
A Bear Market In Bonds yakers FIRE and Money 6 03-11-2006 04:06 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:57 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.