 |
|
03-07-2021, 11:48 AM
|
#41
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,384
|
 Quote:
Originally Posted by RHONDAVE
Anyone else worried about YTD performance of their bond index funds?
My Vanguard VBTLX is now -2.28 for the year. Whats the deal?
I have sold everything else, why not these as well  ?? |
No because that's market timing based on feelings and I don't choose to participate since I've finally learned to ignore my feelings when it comes to investing. I know people who do Tactical Asset Allocation, which is algorithmically based and has had some success in the past. But that takes more work and monitoring than I'm willing to put in, assuming there's an algorithm that can work going forward.
Stocks and bonds go up and down. More often up than down, fortunately. And with bonds, historically the movements aren't as extreme as stocks. But they both go up and down - it's what they do - all the time. I'd love to have a portfolio where all assets went up by large amounts all the time but I'm willing to live with what hopefully is a long term upward trend, event if it's got up and down with bumps along the way.
Cheers.
|
|
|
 |
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
|
03-07-2021, 02:25 PM
|
#42
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,860
|
I have been selling mine off slowly for about 6 months. Only have about 5% bond funds (BND) left in our portfolio....will probably keep that.
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
|
|
|
|
|
03-07-2021, 02:29 PM
|
#43
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHONDAVE
I have sold everything else, why not these as well ?? |
I'm apparently the only one who doesn't know what this means. You sold everything else?
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 04:56 AM
|
#44
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,885
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHONDAVE
Anyone else worried about YTD performance of their bond index funds?
My Vanguard VBTLX is now -2.28 for the year. Whats the deal?
I have sold everything else, why not these as well ?? |
That fund was up 8.7% in 2019 and 7.7% in 2020.
Nobody was complaining then...
Seriously - if you don't want a fixed income asset to ever lose nominal value, then put it all in a money market account.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 04:59 AM
|
#45
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,885
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
The above.
This concept gets lost sometimes in exchange for the simple price to yield inverse correlation of bonds.
|
+1000
In the long run, rising interest rates are a good thing for bond fund holders.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 06:11 AM
|
#46
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh
That fund was up 8.7% in 2019 and 7.7% in 2020.
Nobody was complaining then...
Seriously - if you don't want a fixed income asset to ever lose nominal value, then put it all in a money market account.
|
+1
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 06:17 AM
|
#47
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by big-papa
No because that's market timing based on feelings and I don't choose to participate since I've finally learned to ignore my feelings when it comes to investing. I know people who do Tactical Asset Allocation, which is algorithmically based and has had some success in the past. But that takes more work and monitoring than I'm willing to put in, assuming there's an algorithm that can work going forward.
Stocks and bonds go up and down. More often up than down, fortunately. And with bonds, historically the movements aren't as extreme as stocks. But they both go up and down - it's what they do - all the time. I'd love to have a portfolio where all assets went up by large amounts all the time but I'm willing to live with what hopefully is a long term upward trend, event if it's got up and down with bumps along the way.
Cheers.
|
Well said big-papa. This sums up investing in so few words!!
Best to you,
VW
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 09:07 AM
|
#48
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,633
|
Don't use bond index funds with rates this low.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 09:38 AM
|
#49
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,155
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill
Don't use bond index funds with rates this low.
|
Just hop in and out when you guess the future? No thanks!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 10:17 AM
|
#50
|
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,501
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Just hop in and out when you guess the future? No thanks!
|
 +1
For me, selling low has never worked as well as buy-and-hold and rebalancing.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 11:10 AM
|
#51
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Houston
Posts: 958
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
For me, selling low has never worked as well as buy-and-hold and rebalancing.
|
For me, sticking to my normal buy and hold philosophy while riding downward trends with events that seem likely to continue pushing the trend further downward has not worked well for me. Hopefully this won't be a long term trend and VBTLX will turn back upward and reward you well. Time will tell.
__________________
"Learn everyday, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper! " - John Bogle
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 11:48 AM
|
#52
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 1,890
|
I would prefer a nice run up of the 10 year treasury to 3% and then just hang out around there for the next 35 years.
__________________
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 01:25 PM
|
#53
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,633
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Just hop in and out when you guess the future? No thanks!
|
No guessing...my IPS says bond funds when 10 year yields 2% or more, otherwise cash equivalents (CDs, etc.)
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 01:29 PM
|
#54
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill
No guessing...my IPS says bond funds when 10 year yields 2% or more, otherwise cash equivalents (CDs, etc.)
|
I'm glad that works for you, it would not work for me.
VW
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 01:57 PM
|
#55
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
|
Am I worried about bond funds? Yup.*
I moved out of AGG to a shorter term fund and to an intermediate treasuries fund. Have also bought some 1 to 3 year corporates and a 3 year MYGA. Guess im betting on a return to 'normalcy' in the next couple years.
* Also worried about equity funds and REIT funds and am not bright enough to buy individual stocks / properties.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 06:59 PM
|
#56
|
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 388
|
No. Can't remember who said this "If you get upset and start making drastic changes to your portfolio when one of you asset classes goes down while your whole portfolio rises, you shouldn't be managing your own money" Might have been Bernstein now that I think about it.
Nobody can predict nothing...and that absolutely includes the direction of interest rates. I too just rebalance and let the markets do what they do. Over the course of many years I have managed to do just fine. I'm not changing a thing. I have a couple close friends that panic sold in the spring 2020 market turmoil. It's very hard to recover from mistakes made during times of excessive volatility because the departures can be extremely large.
__________________
FIRE'd---4/27/2018 @ 54. DW--RE date 03/01/19.
|
|
|
|
Are You Worried About Your Bond Index Fund?
|
03-08-2021, 07:11 PM
|
#57
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: NC Triangle
Posts: 5,807
|
Are You Worried About Your Bond Index Fund?
Quote:
Originally Posted by tdv2
No. Can't remember who said this "If you get upset and start making drastic changes to your portfolio when one of you asset classes goes down while your whole portfolio rises, you shouldn't be managing your own money" Might have been Bernstein now that I think about it.
Nobody can predict nothing...and that absolutely includes the direction of interest rates. I too just rebalance and let the markets do what they do. Over the course of many years I have managed to do just fine. I'm not changing a thing. I have a couple close friends that panic sold in the spring 2020 market turmoil. It's very hard to recover from mistakes made during times of excessive volatility because the departures can be extremely large.
|
I agree. My bond funds are squirreled away in a tax-deferred account (stocks in tax-free) and hopefully will just sit there like a fuzzy rebalanced rabbit.
__________________
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 07:12 PM
|
#58
|
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 1
|
"Are You Worried About Your Bond Index Funds?"
Yes.
I actually switched some bond money to a Russell 2000 Index fund.
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 08:56 PM
|
#59
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,384
|
A poster on another forum likes to say that if at least one asset isn't making you unhappy at any given time, you're probably not diversified enough. For many, this year it's bonds.
|
|
|
|
|
03-09-2021, 03:47 AM
|
#60
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,591
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill
No guessing...my IPS says bond funds when 10 year yields 2% or more, otherwise cash equivalents (CDs, etc.)
|
Seems very reasonable from the standpoint of risk/reward.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|
Linear Mode
