Aside from Firecalc - what other 'tools' have you used to est FI?

[pb4uski]

Fidelity's RIP, seems to give the most conservative answers, Firecalc easy to use, did TRPrice it was ok. I've not used quicken or some of the other's. Wonder if their more conservative?
MRG

Quicken is a deterministic planner and relies on the investment return that you provide, so it can be as conservative as you decide. You can also look at what-if the return is a bit higher or lower with all other assumptions held constant and get a sense as to how sensitive portfolio survivorship is to average investment return.

I use the historical return for a 60/40 portfolio with a significant haircut.

 

[Hermit]

My favorite deterministic planner is Quicken Lifetime Planner (included in Quicken Deluxe and higher). It does model RMDs as I recall but does not model income taxes. One of the inputs is a average tax rate before retirement and during retirement.

I'm not aware of any planner that includes tax calcs within though I have done that in my personal spreadsheet retirement model (as well as Roth conversions and RMDs). My AA is static (60/40) so my AA is reflected in the investment rate of return I use.

While Quicken does have separate categories for taxable, tax-deferred and tax-free, in the QLP reporting it only shows taxable and tax-deferred (which includes both tax-deferred and tax-free).

I use FireCalc principally as a stochastic check of my QLP plan.

pb4uski,
I don't understand your statement that QLP does not model income taxes. If I click on any bar in the Plan Results Graph I get a report for the future year associated with the bar I clicked. The report includes Expenses and under Expenses it lists "Tax on Salaries and Benefits", "Tax on Special Income", and "Tax on Withdrawals". In my case, the year I will hit 70 the "Tax on Withdrawals" goes way up to account for RMD withdrawals. The "Tax on Withdrawals is about the same as other tools that calculate future taxes on RMDs. Of course as a deterministic model, you only get one middle-of-road view of what your retirement finances might look like.

 

[Hermit]

In addition to Firecalc I use Quicken Lifetime Planner, Fidelity Retirement Income Planner, and Financial Engines (available through my Megacorp). Via the Financial adviser that Megacorp pays for, I also have them use a modeling tool for me. I still use a spreadsheet to test some unique situations.

I more look at how much the models agree as opposed to their individual specific results. I feel safer taking the "lowest common denominator" among them.

If you are using the same Financial Engines that I use, it doesn't work if you are retired. You have to enter a retirement date that is in the future.

If I believed the results I get from Financial Engines, I could spend a whole lot more time partying in Las Vegas! It is 15% to 20% more optimistic on available annual spending than other tools I use.

 

[pb4uski]

pb4uski,
I don't understand your statement that QLP does not model income taxes. If I click on any bar in the Plan Results Graph I get a report for the future year associated with the bar I clicked. The report includes Expenses and under Expenses it lists "Tax on Salaries and Benefits", "Tax on Special Income", and "Tax on Withdrawals". In my case, the year I will hit 70 the "Tax on Withdrawals" goes way up to account for RMD withdrawals. The "Tax on Withdrawals is about the same as other tools that calculate future taxes on RMDs. Of course as a deterministic model, you only get one middle-of-road view of what your retirement finances might look like.

I guess I wan't clear. QLP does include taxes, but only at a single rate that you provide applied to the projected income for that projection year. It doesn't increase or decrease the tax rate if the income in a particular projection year is high or low.

I was comparing it with my spreadsheet model which computes a taxable income based on investment returns, pension income, SS, Roth conversions, RMDs, HSA contributions, medical costs, property taxes, mortgage interest, state income taxes, charitable contributions, personal exemptions, etc and then applies the current progressive tax rates based on brackets that are adjusted for inflation. So in a year where income is higher (like when SS and RMDs kick in) the tax rate is higher.

 

[Cb]

Some see it a bit differently, but still noteworthy:

I'm not aware of any retirement calculator that incorporates fluctuations in bond values. From the thread linked above, it wasn't included in the famous Trinity Study.

The first calculator Willer linked in reply #7 addresses the bond issue.

 

[REWahoo]

The first calculator Willer linked in reply #7 addresses the bond issue.

I have no confidence in the accuracy of that particular calculator.

 

[Alan]

Before I found this site and FIRECALC, the main calculators I used were those through the Fidelity and Vanguard sites. Fidelity had a calculator I used before RIP superseded it, and Vanguard has free use of Financial Engines for its customers.

 

[ggbutcher]

I worry less about investment performance and more about meeting ever-inflating expenses. I started with a spreadsheet, found I had to re-organize it at every turn, so I wrote a web page that meets my needs. It just graphs income, expenses, and savings balance, and it also will show an after-tax income line based on 2013 tables. Any are welcome to play with it at http://pulpitrock.net/incomeexpense; no server, no data storage, no NSA tap. .. No support either, but I don't mind comments...
That said, I'll be doing ESPlanner at some point, just to figure out SS.

 

[aja8888]

I worry less about investment performance and more about meeting ever-inflating expenses. I started with a spreadsheet, found I had to re-organize it at every turn, so I wrote a web page that meets my needs. It just graphs income, expenses, and savings balance, and it also will show an after-tax income line based on 2013 tables. Any are welcome to play with it at http://pulpitrock.net/incomeexpense; no server, no data storage, no NSA tap. .. No support either, but I don't mind comments...
That said, I'll be doing ESPlanner at some point, just to figure out SS.

Linky not found..

Not Found

The requested URL /incomeexpense; was not found on this server.

(OK, remove semicolon on end and all is good)

 

[ggbutcher]

That's what I get for posting with my phone. .. linky fixied.

 

[ggbutcher]

In case Income/Expense Analyzer isn't intuitive (ha...), start by entering your birth year on the Global Settings page. Then, go to Item Entry page (scroll to the bottom, if your browser window isn't large enough) and enter an aggregate expense: Name: Expenses; Type: Expense; Amount: 3000 (monthly aggregate expenses); Inflation: 3 (annual percent); Start: 2014; End: 100 (your age). Click Add/Change, regard the curve in the graph.

Entries in each category contribute to a separate line. Distributions contribute to two lines: the distribution balance and the income line if there is a monthly amount taken.

I just looked at it from the perspective of someone who'd never seen it before, and it's not obvious how to use it. I'll have to write some instructions...

 

[jollystomper]

If you are using the same Financial Engines that I use, it doesn't work if you are retired. You have to enter a retirement date that is in the future.

If I believed the results I get from Financial Engines, I could spend a whole lot more time partying in Las Vegas! It is 15% to 20% more optimistic on available annual spending than other tools I use.

Sorry about that - I saw the OP's question and was focused on the "FI" in the question, not the RE. Interestingly, it was "only" about 10% more optimistic than Firecalc's "95% success" level forecast for us. What was the old adage - throw out the high and the low results and average the rest...

 

[Cat-tirement]

Anyone have suggestions on calculators or tools to model situations where one would move between states with different tax structures during retirement? We expect to stay in our current (no income tax) state for a while after ER, and then move to another (moderately high income tax) state. I am interested in something that could be used to help plan strategies for various things in order to determine which would be better to do in our current vs. future location. Some of these things that come to mind are:

• Roth conversions
• Taking cap gains
• Take a pension lump sum in current location vs. regular payments in future location
• Take a lump sum 401k distribution in current location vs. regular payments in future location

 

[Lsbcal]

For different state tax situations, I would think just having both states tax forms in TurboTax would allow you to see how things might be different. So a combo of TurboTax run with state A, then state B, plus a spreadsheet to lay out the important figures side by side, one line per year into the future.

 

[woodguy00]

I like the ******** model better than Firecalc. It seems much easier to use without jumping through all the pages.

ORP and FID are in the stable as is Flexible Retirement Planner.

Then of course there is my own spreadsheet model that only uses inflation and return estimates.

 

[MichaelB]

Back in the day I used early versions of Quicken Financial Planner, then a MC simulator. Mostly my own spreadsheets, which grew increasing complex as I wrestled with all the variables involved in these financial projections.

Eventually I concluded that my effort to model did not lead to any meaningful insights or change in strategy, so I gave it up. In the early to mid accumulation phase saving dominated my priorities, no tools or simulators were needed for that. In the late accumulation and withdrawal phases I am focused on portfolio survival and budget management. For portfolio survival I much prefer the simplicity of FIRECalc. What will help me is not more precision or greater detail but how I respond to the ever evolving economy and investment world.

I can see the value of a tool that would assist someone in efficiently allocating assets across taxable and tax deferred accounts, then analyzing withdrawal schemes to determine impact on portfolio survivability.

 

[Lsbcal]

... What will help me is not more precision or greater detail but how I respond to the ever evolving economy and investment world. ...

Well stated.

Plus we mustn't forget to have fun along the way.

 

[Hermit]

...
I can see the value of a tool that would assist someone in efficiently allocating assets across taxable and tax deferred accounts, then analyzing withdrawal schemes to determine impact on portfolio survivability.

That sounds like ORP to me. Only I'm not too crazy about its focus on moving all money out of tax deferred into tax free as quickly as possible.

 

[sengsational]

That sounds like ORP to me. Only I'm not too crazy about its focus on moving all money out of tax deferred into tax free as quickly as possible.

And I wish it had an "output in today's dollars" option.

 

[NanoSour]

That sounds like ORP to me. Only I'm not too crazy about its focus on moving all money out of tax deferred into tax free as quickly as possible.

I can't wait to get started moving that money over to the tax-free Roth. In the end it should be a significant savings. At least that's what all the calculators are saying.

Also, fortunately our tax situations allows us to move about 25K over annually without impacting our annual tax amount.

 

[Hermit]

I can't wait to get started moving that money over to the tax-free Roth. In the end it should be a significant savings. At least that's what all the calculators are saying.

Also, fortunately our tax situations allows us to move about 25K over annually without impacting our annual tax amount.

Yes, it is different for everyone. Unfortunately, all my money is in tax deferred accounts. Most of what I will live on will come from pension and SS. That means I would have to take enough out to pay the taxes as well. I think for my situation it would be better to wait until I have taken some RMDs before moving money early. I also will leave some funds to charity so there is no need to move that money prior to RMD.

 

[sengsational]

...
Otar's retirement optimizer otar retirement calculator
...

I gave this a quick look, because I'd never tried it before. My quick impressions:

• There is a trial available for free, but you need to purchase it to get it to work fully (trial locked on age 55).
• You need to execute an email loop to get the trial version.
• You MUST have Excel 2007 or newer. I couldn't get it the trial to work under Open Office.
• It uses the same principle as FIRECalc (uses actual historical returns from equities and bonds).
• Some of your bond portfolio may be entered as inflation protected.
• The PDF that gets unpacked when you install is pretty good reading, even if you don't get the program to work.
• The uninstall does not work without Excel 2007, so I just deleted the folder (not sure how clean that was).

 

[kimcdougc]

I have always used Fidelity RIP and Firecala. I don't make excel spread sheets (I don't) like Excel. I use the plain old pen and paper to make a budget etc. On line calculators tell me what my money etc will be worth in the future. I know my budget inside and out and am looking forward to my husband finally retiring in June of this year! Yipee!