Asset Allocation and Impact on Retirement Investment

[Spanky]

LOL - the damage from a fireball is lot more devastating!

[vdesalvo]

OMG,
I think most of ya”ll love complaining & also, love getting off topic to further your complaining. My take on the video was don’t put all your eggs in ONE BASKET, Asset Allocation is important. That was what’s the video point was explaining in my view. From there you decide what you do with your assets.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter The D-Day weather problem: ... a story possibly apocryphal but worthwhile anyway: One day well prior to D-day, the army Met (meteorological) office received a request from SHAEF for a weather forecast on a specific day a couple of months in the future. "Impossible," they said and this was relayed up the chain of command. Back down came the order: "A forecast is required for planning purposes." I don't argue that backtesting is completely useless. I use Portfolio Visualizer once in a while to compare portfolios, looking mostly at the degree of correlation. The problem with backtesting gadgets is that people do look at them as being predictive. That is why we see, in thread after thread, people concerned about the difference between 90% and 100%.

Yeah, it's not so much the back testing algorithm that's at fault - but the use of the results. Like getting 97% and then doing OMY until 100% pops up on the "gadget." I'd like to think no one here has done that with FIRECalc.

Heh, heh, as usual, see my tag line.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rayvt Speaking of which, go here https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ and launch a 1 mile wide asteroid in the middle of the Atlantic. The impact will create a 1.1 mile tall tsunami Your asteroid impacted the water at 37,948 mph The impact is equivalent to 355 Gigatons of TNT peak wind speed 16,605 mph

Thanks. Very cool site. Heh, heh, take THAT Omaha!

I actually worry (well, occasionally think about) a Nuke from N. Korea. I wonder if there is a similar site for that? We had the false alarm a few years back and a lot of people really freaked - we didn't. I've heard that there are ways to survive such an attack at least at certain distances. So I guess I'm curious.

I found at least one site with "helpful hints" on survival (and, of course, sales of equipment to assist in your survival.) Do I really want a mask and a suit on my limited shelves? (I'm sure I would if Pearl were ever attacked - again.) YMMV

[USGrant1962]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolau ... I actually worry (well, occasionally think about) a Nuke from N. Korea. I wonder if there is a similar site for that? We had the false alarm a few years back and a lot of people really freaked - we didn't. I've heard that there are ways to survive such an attack at least at certain distances. So I guess I'm curious. ...

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

It even has presets for the NorKs.

[MichaelB]

From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I don’t recall seeing such dramatic thread drift.

Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

[braumeister]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

As a schoolchild in NYC, we were taught to survive a nuclear holocaust by getting under our desks. Practiced several times a year.

[USGrant1962]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I don’t recall seeing such dramatic thread drift. Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

It just brings us back to https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

[PatrickA5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man Great question on the Monte Carlo simulations probability of success percentage. Curious to know as well. In this video below (3:50 minutes in video), the financial advisor is using RightCapital and this is how he is interpreting the Monte Carlo simulation probability of success percentage: 90-100% - You might want to spend more money in retirement. 80-90% - You are really good 70-80% - You are still good Low 70, High 60 - You need to monitor the plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_4aYqkRGVw

This makes sense to me and I imagine that most retirees would love an 80% chance of success and would be able to adjust spending accordingly to move that probability higher.

As opposed to some who pad their projected expenses 200%, don't include social security, and still want 100% success.

[G-Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatrickA5 This makes sense to me and I imagine that most retirees would love an 80% chance of success and would be able to adjust spending accordingly to move that probability higher. As opposed to some who pad their projected expenses 200%, don't include social security, and still want 100% success.

Curious to hear from others as well.

[ncbill]

Don't forget because of factors outside of your control:

"any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."

The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III: Eat, Drink, and Be Merry

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962 https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ It even has presets for the NorKs.

Thanks! Looks like a lot of "fun" to play with.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I don’t recall seeing such dramatic thread drift. Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

Invest in roach motels.