Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-16-2023, 09:22 AM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
LOL - the damage from a fireball is lot more devastating!
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Complaining
Old 09-16-2023, 11:58 AM   #42
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Brenham
Posts: 13
Complaining

OMG,
I think most of yaĒll love complaining & also, love getting off topic to further your complaining. My take on the video was donít put all your eggs in ONE BASKET, Asset Allocation is important. That was whatís the video point was explaining in my view. From there you decide what you do with your assets.
vdesalvo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 12:33 PM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 16,081
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
The D-Day weather problem: ... a story possibly apocryphal but worthwhile anyway: One day well prior to D-day, the army Met (meteorological) office received a request from SHAEF for a weather forecast on a specific day a couple of months in the future. "Impossible," they said and this was relayed up the chain of command. Back down came the order: "A forecast is required for planning purposes."

I don't argue that backtesting is completely useless. I use Portfolio Visualizer once in a while to compare portfolios, looking mostly at the degree of correlation. The problem with backtesting gadgets is that people do look at them as being predictive. That is why we see, in thread after thread, people concerned about the difference between 90% and 100%.

Yeah, it's not so much the back testing algorithm that's at fault - but the use of the results. Like getting 97% and then doing OMY until 100% pops up on the "gadget." I'd like to think no one here has done that with FIRECalc.

Heh, heh, as usual, see my tag line.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 01:03 PM   #44
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 16,081
Quote:
Originally Posted by rayvt View Post
Speaking of which, go here https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/ and launch a 1 mile wide asteroid in the middle of the Atlantic.

The impact will create a 1.1 mile tall tsunami


Your asteroid impacted the water at 37,948 mph

The impact is equivalent to 355 Gigatons of TNT


peak wind speed 16,605 mph




Thanks. Very cool site. Heh, heh, take THAT Omaha!

I actually worry (well, occasionally think about) a Nuke from N. Korea. I wonder if there is a similar site for that? We had the false alarm a few years back and a lot of people really freaked - we didn't. I've heard that there are ways to survive such an attack at least at certain distances. So I guess I'm curious.

I found at least one site with "helpful hints" on survival (and, of course, sales of equipment to assist in your survival.) Do I really want a mask and a suit on my limited shelves? (I'm sure I would if Pearl were ever attacked - again.) YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 01:12 PM   #45
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,321
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
...

I actually worry (well, occasionally think about) a Nuke from N. Korea. I wonder if there is a similar site for that? We had the false alarm a few years back and a lot of people really freaked - we didn't. I've heard that there are ways to survive such an attack at least at certain distances. So I guess I'm curious.
...
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

It even has presets for the NorKs.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
ďThere is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.Ē - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 01:22 PM   #46
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 39,377
From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I donít recall seeing such dramatic thread drift.

Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 01:42 PM   #47
Moderator
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 23,947
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.
As a schoolchild in NYC, we were taught to survive a nuclear holocaust by getting under our desks. Practiced several times a year.
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2023, 01:51 PM   #48
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,321
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I donít recall seeing such dramatic thread drift.

Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

It just brings us back to https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
ďThere is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.Ē - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2023, 11:16 AM   #49
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by G-Man View Post
Great question on the Monte Carlo simulations probability of success percentage. Curious to know as well.

In this video below (3:50 minutes in video), the financial advisor is using RightCapital and this is how he is interpreting the Monte Carlo simulation probability of success percentage:

90-100% - You might want to spend more money in retirement.
80-90% - You are really good
70-80% - You are still good
Low 70, High 60 - You need to monitor the plan

This makes sense to me and I imagine that most retirees would love an 80% chance of success and would be able to adjust spending accordingly to move that probability higher.

As opposed to some who pad their projected expenses 200%, don't include social security, and still want 100% success.
PatrickA5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2023, 11:41 AM   #50
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 723
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatrickA5 View Post
This makes sense to me and I imagine that most retirees would love an 80% chance of success and would be able to adjust spending accordingly to move that probability higher.

As opposed to some who pad their projected expenses 200%, don't include social security, and still want 100% success.
Curious to hear from others as well.
G-Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2023, 11:58 AM   #51
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,353
Don't forget because of factors outside of your control:

"any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."

The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III: Eat, Drink, and Be Merry
ncbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2023, 09:00 PM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 16,081
Quote:
Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

It even has presets for the NorKs.

Thanks! Looks like a lot of "fun" to play with.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2023, 09:04 PM   #53
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 16,081
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
From asset allocation to asteroids, fireballs and nuclear devices in just a few posts. I donít recall seeing such dramatic thread drift.

Adding to it, you all know that after the nuclear devastation the cockroaches will reign supreme.

Invest in roach motels.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Taxable investment asset allocation for ER growerVon FIRE and Money 8 11-23-2014 10:35 AM
Asset allocation suggestions for retirement accounts lhamo FIRE and Money 4 10-15-2007 09:02 AM
Why are so many asset classes correlated and impact on AA? Olav23 FIRE and Money 8 03-29-2007 07:32 PM
Asset Allocation at Retirement Time JDARNELL FIRE and Money 10 02-04-2006 07:02 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:06 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.