At What Age Do You EXPECT Your Nest Egg $ To Peak?

If you use Fidelity’s Retirement Planner, in today’s dollars, average returns, we die with more than twice what we retired with. With significantly below average returns, their worst case option, we die with 30% more than the day we retired. Got to blow the dough.
 
My baseline forecast shows NW holding steady thru year 20, before it begins dropping off. Firecalc shows an average ending balance higher than the starting balance. So, tough to say where the peak would be. I do expect that at about year 10, we would undertake a thorough review - are we above/below plan, do we need to make any radical changes, etc., so we can make those change early on if we need to.

P.S. Pension and SS are only about a quarter of our total spending plan (including taxes), so our retirement will largely be funded by investment income/assets - relevant as to why our NW won't necessarily keep increasing. That said, there are some Firecalc results that could take us well into 8-figures if the stars align or to the poorhouse if we don't pay close attention and take early corrective action. In my modeling, those first 10 years seem to be the most meaningful. If make it thru the first 10 unscathed, then not much else seems to matter to the models. That said, those first 10 seem like the biggest opportunity for fun, so might be tempting to blow thru the budget.
 
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I recall loading my numbers into several retirement calculators. They all graphed how the money would go up for several years and then gradually taper off (maybe around age 82 to 89??)

Well, I'm not 82 yet, but the numbers just seem to keep going up. I've mentioned how Megacorp stock (that I was too lazy to get rid of) has taken off on a real tear. In the past year, it's made as much as I've spent. Not complaining (and it could go down) but trying to forecast a peak is problematic at this point. We're sorta spending 4% right now but it's being partially back-filled by SS and modest Megacorp pension. That doesn't even include the Megacorp stock! What should I do??!
 
Once I start SS in a few years I expect that SS and my small pension will slightly exceed our spending, so there will never be a peak. That is in both nominal $$$ and real $$$.........

We need to start spending more.

I expect ours will never peak for the same reason.
 
It looks like I will peak before our money does!:facepalm:
 
I don't have a snapshot from March 2000 (age 38), just before the dotcom bubble burst, but it might have been then. I only have end of year numbers, and for a long time I didn't think I'd even get back to 12/31/1999, since I ER'd well short of it. But somewhere in 2021 I eclipsed it and kept moving, so whenever the market peaked around there is my current high. I'm at about 88% of that now, so I could get back there, especially after I start SS. I've got more than enough now so I'm not going to make any overt attempt (like spending less, or investing with more high risk to get possible high rewards) to get there.

Inflation adjusted (1.78x current money), early 2000 easily wins. I'll be shocked if I ever surpass that. I've put regrets behind me. I got there by being very aggressive with company stock and options, and gave a lot of it back when the bubble burst. That taught me to be an indexer with about 1/3 in fixed income.
 
Have no idea. Our nest egg has been growing faster than we’ve been spending it, and has even kept up with inflation over 23 years. So frankly I haven’t expected a peak.

And we’re one of those without a residual goal. I guess we’ll keep increasing our gifting as we age.
 
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I'm seeing a pattern here. I wonder if it's a "thing" within our community or if maybe "rich" people (like most of us:LOL:) just naturally increase their wealth. Many of us don't spend 4% (adjusted for inflation.) So, maybe it's more or less backed in the cake once you start toward FIRE and keep the faith once retired. It's a little puzzling.
 
I expect mine likely peaked at end of 2021 at age 42. I have worked very little since then and have pulled some money out of retirement savings and will likely have to do so every year going forward so unless the market goes up more than average my net worth will likely be going down in the future.
 
I don't think that it will ever peak. Unless the market really tanks, I expect returns to be far more than the average $25k I've been withdrawing annually. That said, we haven't climbed back up to our January 2022 high yet.
 
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If you use Fidelity’s Retirement Planner, in today’s dollars, average returns, we die with more than twice what we retired with. With significantly below average returns, their worst case option, we die with 30% more than the day we retired. Got to blow the dough.

If I use "significantly below average", we end up with slightly less than what we have now. Average and Below Average are well above what we have now. And if I use Future Dollars, we'll be rich at 95 years old! Ha! Maybe my prediction of having reached our peak now won't turn out to be true after all.
 
If you use Fidelity’s Retirement Planner, in today’s dollars, average returns, we die with more than twice what we retired with. With significantly below average returns, their worst case option, we die with 30% more than the day we retired. Got to blow the dough.

I found the same scenario, but my personal 40 yr spreadsheet (mucho pessimistic) to top out at 75&81...I have a lumpy & future HC column that pulls me down to earth.

I do like Fidelity giving you the appx WR column to show you the ups & downs through time, specifically for when you start SS.
 
I'm seeing a pattern here. I wonder if it's a "thing" within our community or if maybe "rich" people (like most of us:LOL:) just naturally increase their wealth. Many of us don't spend 4% (adjusted for inflation.) So, maybe it's more or less backed in the cake once you start toward FIRE and keep the faith once retired. It's a little puzzling.

I would not call us rich, well maybe a handful of us, IMHO rich is a NW over $15m of which $10m is in hard cashish. But that is just me. I consider DW and I to be middle to upper middle class, if there is such a thing.
 
For DW and I, peak will likely be right before RMDs kick in. Once that happens, we'll start giving away a lot via QCDs and the like to avoid the tax hit and at the same time do a lot of good.
 
Aren’t we all aiming for a 100% firecalc success rate? In that case, it’s likely to peak when we die (assuming remaining years is close to estimated)
 
I would not call us rich, well maybe a handful of us, IMHO rich is a NW over $15m of which $10m is in hard cashish. But that is just me. I consider DW and I to be middle to upper middle class, if there is such a thing.


Ding, ding, ning, ning, ning! Finally! Someone has defined RICH.:cool:
 
I'm not really the target market for this question. I have three kids and am a big fan of safe spending rates and don't mind leaving really any amount to my kids.

I'm seeing a pattern here. I wonder if it's a "thing" within our community or if maybe "rich" people (like most of us:LOL:) just naturally increase their wealth. Many of us don't spend 4% (adjusted for inflation.) So, maybe it's more or less backed in the cake once you start toward FIRE and keep the faith once retired. It's a little puzzling.

The book "Die With Zero" points out that on average wealth peaks in the 70s IIRC. I think that somewhere around that age is when the reality of mortality and the accumulation of compounded wealth start to cross paths.

I would not call us rich, well maybe a handful of us, IMHO rich is a NW over $15m of which $10m is in hard cashish. But that is just me. I consider DW and I to be middle to upper middle class, if there is such a thing.

A net worth of $1M is basically top 1% world wide, and now is probably the wealthiest the world has ever been. With jet travel, the internet, good medical care, air conditioning, and indoor plumbing, the average American making $50K a year literally lives better than kings did 200 years ago.

I think very few people who have a NW of $15M would have $10M in "cashish". I know a few people in that category and none to my knowledge keep that much in cash.
 
We have been doing fine with a 2-3% WR, even including some BTD. When we claim our SS at 70, we would only need .5-1%, so our nest egg may never peak.
 
We have been doing fine with a 2-3% WR, even including some BTD. When we claim our SS at 70, we would only need .5-1%, so our nest egg may never peak.


About the same with us. Our Withdrawal Rate is just under 3%, SS will start soon and that will bring our withdrawal rate under 1%. I expect one more major purchase and that is getting my son into a home. We bought our daughter a $300k education, (she will earn over 2/3 of that this year) so I feel like we need to play catch up with our son.
 
I have no idea, at 74 and having taken RMD for several years, spending for our own needs is quite a bit below the $s coming in from RMD, SS, and a small pension. However, we also gift money to our kids and will continue to do so.
 
Ours peaked (so far) Dec 2021 with about 50% more than we retired with in 2017. I am different than most around here as I don't go for 100% success with underperforming market. I also added PV of SS to my assets so I actually started with 5% withdrawal rate and it is now closer to 6%. We are seriously BTD with travel these days so I doubt we will ever match the 2021 peak; if we do, it's because health caused us to stop traveling.
 
My investible assets/nest egg took a hit at start of retirement in 2013 when I chose to annuitize a major chunk with TIAA for lifetime income.
From then until 2020, my remaining nest egg increased slightly most years as market returns outpaced what I withdrew in lieu of Social Security.

But since starting age 70 SS in 2020, I have had excess income almost every month of a few thousand dollars, which I invest in stock index funds. So I now have a negative withdrawal rate and expect my nest egg to continue growing indefinitely...
 
Up and down with the market so peaks come and go.


I think that's a good point. Our "peak" may be just before the next pull-back in the markets. We may not know until afterwards. So if we croak before the markets rebound, our peak was just before the pull-back.

For now, we'll take the peaks and valleys as they come. We've been fortunate that each peak is greater than the one before. That will eventually end - for us (or we will end.:cool:)
 
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