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Average gas price $6.20/gal by end of Summer
Old 06-12-2022, 09:29 AM   #1
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Average gas price $6.20/gal by end of Summer

I sure hope this is wrong, but I doubt it is. Obviously higher fuel prices increases the prices of almost everything else...
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Right now, the average price of a gallon of gas is a record $4.60, according to AAA 50 cents higher than a month ago and $1.50 more than a year ago. Where will gas prices go from here? It's impossible to say for sure, but most forecasts say fuel costs won't be cheap anytime soon.

In a research note last week, analysts from JPMorgan predicted that if strong consumer demand for gas persists amid the lowest supply of gasoline in three years, average prices could surge to $6.20 per gallon by the end of the summer. That would amount to a 35% bump over prices at the pump today.
https://money.com/gas-prices-forecast-summer-2022/
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Old 06-12-2022, 09:41 AM   #2
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I wonder if prices can get high enough to actually have the everyday Joe and Jane cut back on usage. And I wonder what that number is... I think the answer is yes and the number depends on the individual. I'm sure the trucks will keep rolling as long as they can pass along the cost in what they are hauling.

FWIW, prices here are currently (today)between 4.49 and 4.89 for regular... Premium and Diesel are about 5.19 to 5.29.
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Old 06-12-2022, 09:49 AM   #3
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I wonder if prices can get high enough to actually have the everyday Joe and Jane cut back on usage. And I wonder what that number is... I think the answer is yes and the number depends on the individual.

FWIW, prices here are currently (today)between 4.49 and 4.89 for regular... Premium and Diesel are about 5.19 to 5.29.
I watched an "expert" on YT/CNBC who said it's getting high enough that some folks will cancel summer vacations that include driving (choose someplace closer or do a staycation). I know we've reduced and consolidated trips more than ever, and expect to continue.
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:20 AM   #4
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We paid $5.39 at Costco in Phoenix, and $5.89 in California on Friday. Traffic on the always jammed 91 was tolerable for once. We believe people are driving less not only due to the $$ but due to Covid. DS works for ADP and to retain workers they only demand in office presence 3 days a week.

She also said workers are complaining about the return and sighting gas prices.
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:22 AM   #5
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I got gas at $5.84 today. Felt like a bargain .
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:30 AM   #6
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Keep an eye on the energy weekly report on gasoline inventories. That'll give you a feel for whats happening just under the surface.

We are at 5 yr lows in US gasoline inventories.

PADD1: Near record lows, not just 5 yr. Slight uptick in the latest report
PADD2: Just below 5 year levels, running lower.
PADD3: Inventories look OK.
PADD4: Below 5 year levels, running lower.
PADD5: Things actually look ok here.

My readout: More pain ahead in most of the country.
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:31 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I watched an "expert" on YT/CNBC who said it's getting high enough that some folks will cancel summer vacations that include driving (choose someplace closer or do a staycation). I know we've reduced and consolidated trips more than ever, and expect to continue.
I've seen the cancel vacation chatter too - it doesn't make much sense. Gas going from $3 to $6 cost you $200-300 extra for 2,000 mile round trip in your minivan (2K mi / 25 mpg x $3 = $240). I can't see people completely canceling a week at the beach or trip to Disney over that amount of money. And most road-trip vacations are a day's drive, less than 1000 miles round trip so ~100 bucks more in gas.

I think reducing and consolidating routine trips is the more common response.


EDIT - not to say that the combined inflation of hotels, restaurants , destination prices, gas, etc. might not cause people to reconsider vacation plans.
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:36 AM   #8
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While playing golf this week, one of my very long time best friends and I were discussing this commodity. He is a very good source of info, as he was VP of the largest oil producer and advisor to the oil Minister, before that he traded oil for some well known brothers. He said flat out gas will reach $10/gal before this is all over with oil >$150/barrel. Hmmm...I know to believe him on many things, but this took me back until he explained in detail why. Of course we can all hope he and others are wrong....
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Old 06-12-2022, 10:42 AM   #9
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We have noticed big SUV and full sized pickups lowering their speed..IE a mile or 2 under the limit instead of 5 over. I assume it's gas prices
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Old 06-12-2022, 11:59 AM   #10
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Some of the oil price was pushed higher due to the geopolitical situation as the Ukraine invasion caused a big jump in oil prices. It had crept up to $90 by February, well within historical range, but then really jumped up suddenly at the start of March and although volatile since has kept returning to those highest prices.

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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I watched an "expert" on YT/CNBC who said it's getting high enough that some folks will cancel summer vacations that include driving (choose someplace closer or do a staycation). I know we've reduced and consolidated trips more than ever, and expect to continue.
I remember well during the summer of 2008 how long distance car travel really shut down. So consumers do respond to high gas prices by doing local travel instead of far away. We were already in the Pacific Northwest early in 2008 in our RV, but by the summer noticed almost no out of state tags. Our TX plates really stood out.
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Old 06-12-2022, 12:34 PM   #11
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We paid $7.09/gallon for gas last week in Mammoth Lakes, CA. It didn't really bother me as I only topped off the tank in the Avalon Hybrid (maybe 6 gallons). I suspect by summer end we will see $6.20/gallon nationally even w/o a significant hurricane within the Gulf of Mexico. With a hurricane in August even $7/gallon seems likely. People don't always realize that what gets produced (refined) and what gets consumed is usually within a few percent of each other. Since refineries are running full at this point (and making lots of money) any imbalance will have to come from the consumer end. At $6 to $7/gallon, I would expect consumer behavior to start to change enough to get us back into balance.
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Old 06-12-2022, 12:37 PM   #12
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I think $6.20 a gallon is low. $8-$10 nationally by the end of the summer would not surprise me.
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Old 06-12-2022, 12:50 PM   #13
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We have noticed big SUV and full sized pickups lowering their speed..IE a mile or 2 under the limit instead of 5 over. I assume it's gas prices
Took a trip from San Diego to LA to pick up daughter from college. We have made this trip many times over the years, and this is the first time that I noticed people not driving at hyper speed whenever traffic would permit. I noticed two benefits - 1) we got about 2 mpg better fuel economy, and 2) I was not an agitated wreck when we arrived in LA.

I do expect that people will simply adjust and the aggressive high speed driving will return shortly, but it was rather nice. And it cost all of an additional 10 minutes on the trip - probably less since the traffic seemed to have less stop and go, go, go!
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Old 06-12-2022, 01:36 PM   #14
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The gals and guys who run the public transportation systems (which have been starved for money as paying ridership has fallen through the floor) must think they have died and gone to heaven.

There has got to be some push back on these prices. Something's gotta give.
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Old 06-12-2022, 01:52 PM   #15
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We have noticed big SUV and full sized pickups lowering their speed..IE a mile or 2 under the limit instead of 5 over. I assume it's gas prices
I haven't noticed any difference. Most people still go 85+ in a 70 zone. People still floor it off the light and accelerate right up until they have to hit the brakes hard for a red. Higher gas hasn't given anyone a brain around here.
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Old 06-12-2022, 01:54 PM   #16
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Has anyone seen or heard of a gas station that was out of gas due to lack of supply? Me neither. There is no lack of supply, just greedy mega corps.
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Old 06-12-2022, 01:59 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Vacation4us View Post
We paid $5.39 at Costco in Phoenix, and $5.89 in California on Friday. Traffic on the always jammed 91 was tolerable for once. We believe people are driving less not only due to the $$ but due to Covid. DS works for ADP and to retain workers they only demand in office presence 3 days a week.

She also said workers are complaining about the return and sighting gas prices.
Interestingly, gas is relatively cheap in the Sedona area: $4.69 today.
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Old 06-12-2022, 02:16 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Happyras View Post
He said flat out gas will reach $10/gal before this is all over with oil >$150/barrel. Hmmm...I know to believe him on many things, but this took me back until he explained in detail why. Of course we can all hope he and others are wrong....

"before this is all over" That's pretty non-specific. If gas doesn't reach $10/gal, he can just say, "this isn't all over with", until someday it eventually does.
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Old 06-12-2022, 02:20 PM   #19
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Has anyone seen or heard of a gas station that was out of gas due to lack of supply? Me neither. There is no lack of supply, just greedy mega corps.
No offense, but this is such an egregious claim with zero proof.

There's no lack of supply mainly because of how efficient the system is. We're a hair line away from terms like "quotas" and "rationing"
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Old 06-12-2022, 02:25 PM   #20
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Has anyone seen or heard of a gas station that was out of gas due to lack of supply? Me neither. There is no lack of supply, just greedy mega corps.
There are hundreds of oil producers, here and in other countries that provide crude oil and refined products to the U.S. How can you say it
it's greed? It's always a supply and demand issue.
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