Average Investor Returns

How much of the Return available from the stock market is realized by the average investor?

  • 95%

    Votes: 3 6.5%
  • 80%

    Votes: 10 21.7%
  • 50%

    Votes: 11 23.9%
  • 30%

    Votes: 8 17.4%
  • 10%

    Votes: 14 30.4%

  • Total voters
    46
Knowing what I do about what even many educated (but not about investing) people do with their 401ks--let alone IRAs and taxable investments--I said 50% and think that's generous. An awful lot of people lose money even in an up-market. Personally speaking, with my heavy weighting in interntional, small cap, value, and cash, I won't do so well in a large-cap-growth led market. (If we ever have one again :LOL:)
 
I'm not sure what the point of the poll is. People smoke tobacco, trade in cars every three years and buy crappy load funds. Yep, they're stupid. What does that have to do with the rest of us?
 
The point of the poll is the same as the point of many of our threads: "Look at how much smarter we are than the rest of the people in this world."

Sounds bad when I say it like that, but it's true that we say that a lot, and it's true.  We're just a bunch of self-righteous nerds!
 
JohnP said:
As a result you, as the mutual fund owner, would receive typically 93-98% of the actual market returns of the underlying stocks. 
...
Bogle says that the typical MF owner realizes 60-65% of the actual market returns.
...
merely buying your funds from different vendors can change your returns within a range from 98% to 36% of actual market returns of the underlying stocks. 

Wowee!   :eek:  I had no idea it was that bad.. I voted 80%.. the other numbers seemed impossible but I guess they're not. Any of the 10% respondents wanna explain their reasoning, though?

TromboneAl .. YEAH! GO EARLY-RETIREMENT.ORG! We RUUUUULE!

First I thought the poll was dopey (pace, brewer), but it's really valuable to see how much difference there is between "investing" and investing. Anything that gets people to take a closer look at their fund performances, expenses and so on, and rub the sleep from their eyes...!
 
Sounds bad when I say it like that, but it's true that we say that a lot, and it's true.  We're just a bunch of self-righteous nerds!

I'll confess... I am a nerd...  :D but not sure about the self-righteous part;  I believe I'm here to understand and learn and share ...  Personally, I'd like to know what do I do and where do I go for the best opportunity to safely FIRE.

Sorry, Dodge and Cox is in DW's firms's plan, but the question remains the same.   With Dodge and Cox, or a load fund, do the total return figures from Morningstar give you an accurate picture (in hind-sight) of performance versus an index fund.  That is what I have always understood.   The question's relevance has to do with what I do with existing load funds (load paid off) that are doing well - move em, or leave em?

donheff - in my mind, the M* figures do give an accurate picture versus an index fund... I am pleased with the M* numbers.  We also have load funds bought in active tax-deferred accounts that I'm comfortable holding there until DWs full retirement.  After DWs retirement we're likely to move the t-d acct to a VG TIRA and hold ETFs there.  Only one more school year for DW.   :D

JohnP
 
donheff said:
Sorry, Dodge and Cox is in DW's firms's plan, but the question remains the same.   With Dodge and Cox, or a load fund, do the total return figures from Morningstar give you an accurate picture (in hind-sight) of performance versus an index fund.  That is what I have always understood.   The question's relevance has to do with what I do with existing load funds (load paid off) that are doing well - move em, or leave em?

Historical performance is historical performance. The problem is that it doesn't tell you if those same funds will beat the indexes in the next 5 years. You are basically gambling that they will do so. Mostly, I am not real eager to make the same wager.
 
TromboneAl said:
The point of the poll is the same as the point of many of our threads: "Look at how much smarter we are than the rest of the people in this world."

Sounds bad when I say it like that, but it's true that we say that a lot, and it's true.  We're just a bunch of self-righteous nerds!

TA, you're an insightful fella........
 
Wowee!     I had no idea it was that bad.. I voted 80%.. the other numbers seemed impossible but I guess they're not. Any of the 10% respondents wanna explain their reasoning, though?

Sure, I'll explain again.  I include everyone in the denominator of "average investor", including all those folks that don't invest in stocks, ETFs, and no-load, low-expense ratio mutuals, but in real estate, small businesses that go nowhere, pyramid schemes, timeshares, 0.25% passbook accounts, social security, annuities, front-end load funds, back-end load funds, hedge funds, lottery tickets, LasVegas, etc.

You can see that the numerator is gonna be much less than stock market returns.   Furthermore, if everyone achieved stock market returns on average, this message board probably would not exist because we would all be average.

And why have a message board to toot our own horns if we are all just average?
 
You can see that the numerator is gonna be much less than stock market returns.   Furthermore, if everyone achieved stock market returns on average, this message board probably would not exist because we would all be average.

And why have a message board to toot our own horns if we are all just average?

I think the server is about to collapse on itself and form a black hole with those statements..... ;)
 
brewer12345 said:
Historical performance is historical performance. The problem is that it doesn't tell you if those same funds will beat the indexes in the next 5 years. You are basically gambling that they will do so. Mostly, I am not real eager to make the same wager.

Thanks Brewer (and JohnP for your similar answer). When I ER'd I had most taxed money and a substantial portion of non-taxed money in load funds recommended by a long term advisor. We were typical overworkers who paid little attention to finances other than the general principal to LBYM and save a boatload. The advisor (luckily) kept us diversified and did not churn. When I was close to ER I started to study and realized the mistake we had made with load funds. Shortly after ER I discovered this group and learned a lot more. When I analyze our funds past performance, however, it looks like we have done fine. Every time I read Bogle's stuff or people quoting it I worry that maybe I am missing something and we are really doing worse than I think. Thus the question about M* -- I think the reality is part luck and part an advisor with a reasonable level of integrity (which was also part luck).

I plan to watch the M* forecasts and, when everything frees up, I will probably move substantial chunks to well regarded ETFs and leave them be. When I am ready to go I will follow up here and pull some nuggets out of your heads.

Thanks again.
 
donheff, FWIW< I wouldn't be in a rush to dump Dodge & Cox. I think they do a pretty good job, although I naturally wouldn't bet the farm on it. Not sure about Calamos.
 
brewer12345 said:
donheff, FWIW< I wouldn't be in a rush to dump Dodge & Cox. I think they do a pretty good job, although I naturally wouldn't bet the farm on it. Not sure about Calamos.
I am not ready to do anything with the funds just now. I do have some cash accounts that I don't need to tap soon that may be in search of a good Federal Credit Union CD per other threads around here.
 
brewer12345 said:
I'm not sure what the point of the poll is.  People smoke tobacco, trade in cars every three years and buy crappy load funds.  Yep, they're stupid.  What does that have to do with the rest of us?

Fortunately, several others found value in the poll and the ensuing discussion.  Perhaps they don't expect and demand that every post be about them.  Bogle and many others have found value in asking how real world investors actually do with their investments.  I would think that anyone (particularly young people) considering entering the equities markets and not already as enlightened as you, would be very interested in knowing how the average investor fares.

I personally found the poll interesting for a number of reasons.  First, despite the existence of numerous studies addressing the issue, it shows that there is still a very wide divergence of opinion by [self-proclaimed] above-average investors regarding the average returns achieved by individual investors in the equities markets.  Second, the opinion of these investors seems by and large to reflect knowledge of the huge discrepancy that exists between historical and real world returns.   Nearly 3/4 of those responding to the poll felt that the average investor only realizes about 50% or less of what the market delivers.   I personally think that is a realistic (and perhaps optimistic) assessment.  As more and more employees are made responsible for their own investments and retirements, I think knowledge of such things is very important.

Is smoking stupid?  Yes.  Does the fact that many thousands of people smoke have anything to do with me, a nonsmoker?  You bet it does. 

Is driving drunk stupid? Yes.  Does the fact that many thousands of people engage in this activity have anything to do with me?  You bet it does.

Does the likely proliferation of millions of investors that are too stupid to invest intelligently for their own retirements and ending up too old, sick or disabled to work and without two nickels to rub together, affect anyone?  I think so. 

I would much rather the truth about real investor returns be told, and I think there is good reason to do so.
 
OK, smart guy: What percentage of the return available in the RE market does the average investor capture?

I agree that the US is desparately in need of even basic financial literacy education for the general populace, but money is such a taboo in this country that I seriously doubt you will ever see widespread education on the subject. Plus I rather doubt it would stop most people from doing painfully short-sighted things with their money. Its really hard to get the money brain evolution has left us with to act with cold rationality.
 
I would think that anyone (particularly young people) considering entering the equities markets and not already as enlightened as you, would be very interested in knowing how the average investor fares.

Definatley, it's all about the kids 8)
 
I would point out (to LOL! and maybe some of the other 10-percenters) that hellbender was talking about STOCK investors and not bank accounts and lottery tix.

what do you believe is actually achieved by the average stock investor

a cross section of equities investors including those who may from time to time engage in activities that are not in their best interests as well as those who have superior stock market investing skills.

Don't want to quibble, but that's an important distinction to make, and I wonder how much the votes would diverge if that had been super-clear=> equity investments...

Hellbender in one sense is being a little tendentious: stocks are even riskier than we think since most investors don't end up with their full value; and in another sense is preaching to the converted: indexes and ETFs avoid high fees and 'churn' and give you as close to a real market return as is possible -- let's say the 93%-98% figger -- without having to do risky stock-picking.. a maxim already taken to heart here. (Which doesn't mean either that he is incorrect or that the poll is worthless.)

Education is important!! But I take this scenario as a challenge.. instead of thinking "oh, the average investor doesn't do as well as advertised in the equity market.. run away!", I think (as I believe many here do) "Let me avoid the reasons that the average investor does poorly in equities, so that I may be above average." (Lake Wobegon, here I come  :) )  But, no matter, I should be happy if people run away -- more buying opportunites for me!

I think everyone here is trying to get the message out about preparing adequately for retirement. I don't know what we can do about the "millions.. too stupid". At the risk of being too Darwinian I would say they will get by on SS and those who have invested well will be that much better off in comparison and will feel richer, even in the eventuality of bearing some of the burden for the first group. If everyone, OTOH, were investing efficiently then our gains might be more limited (?).. I see it as a question of paying now or paying later and am not that concerned about it.

brewer is right.. "kids today" would probably need to be super-savvy to invest in RE at this point.. not hard to conceive they might be better off in equities. I came across some articles on the RE market in the early '90s just coincidentally. That's when I happened to have bought my first house: a 2-family in Boston for $135k. I sold it 2 years ago for $630k after putting in about $100k of work over 10 years. I bought it from a bank that had foreclosed. I was completely oblivious to the RE market at the time: I just thought it would be keen to buy a house and here was this one right down the block; I walked past the "For Sale" sign every day for weeks and weeks on my way to the bus stop. But for me to have "lucked out" meant a painful episode indeed for foreclosure guy.. who knows if he has recovered financially, or if he thinks RE is a good investment? There are ups and downs in everything.

brewer: is that "money brain" or "monkey brain"!:confused:  :D
eek eeek eek (scratch scratch)
 
brewer12345 said:
What percentage of the return available in the RE market does the average investor capture?

I don’t know.  Real estate markets are decentralized so there is no readily obtainable data upon which to base an opinion or analysis.   To my knowledge there has not been one single study that has investigated the actual performance of individual investors directly holding investment real estate. 

Roger Ibbotson’s work is often quoted by equities investors to back up claims of the superiority of stocks as an investment vehicle as compared to real estate.  However, his work has virtually no relevance to individual investors.  He studied the (hypothetical) returns from multi-million dollar properties owned by pension funds, free and clear of mortgage financing.

To my knowledge, Ibbotson has never studied and reported on the actual investment results obtained by individual real estate investors.  (or equities investors for that matter) 
 
brewer12345 said:
I agree that the US is desparately in need of even basic financial literacy education for the general populace, but money is such a taboo in this country that I seriously doubt you will ever see widespread education on the subject. Plus I rather doubt it would stop most people from doing painfully short-sighted things with their money. Its really hard to get the money brain evolution has left us with to act with cold rationality.

I heard the definition of the U.S. Super Consumer the other day:

"Spending money you don't have, on things you don't need, to impress people you don't like"
 
hellbender said:
To my knowledge there has not been one single study that has investigated the actual performance of individual investors directly holding investment real estate. 

I don't know of a good study on that one either. I would agree that it would be really ough to generalize such a locally oriented market.
 
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