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Old 04-25-2020, 11:08 AM   #361
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Here's what I don't understand: The Fed is printing lots of money. That means increased inflation, which should mean a higher yield on CDs, MM, etc. But I guess I am wrong, so what am I missing?

Thanks, Rich
We’ve been through this since 2009, and inflation didn’t happen then. We flirted with deflation instead.

Once we’re through tough economic times, maybe inflation could happen, but it seems a long way away.
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Old 04-25-2020, 11:08 AM   #362
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More money doesn't necessarily mean inflation... that money needs to be chasing goods in order to end up with inflation. Right now, people are sequestered and not spending money so even though there is a lot of money out there it isn't chasing goods... ergo, no inflation.
This guy makes a good case that its not just demand that may make inflation, but a lack of faith in fiat currency. Don't know if it will happen, but I think it is possible enough that people should think about what they own hard asset wise. CD's and Bonds would do even worse than equities under this type of scenario.

Oh, and I am definitely not saying this "will" happen, or even "probably" happen. But i do this it is becoming something that is closer to possible than it was 3 months ago.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...ter-april-2020
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Old 04-25-2020, 01:51 PM   #363
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This guy makes a good case that its not just demand that may make inflation, but a lack of faith in fiat currency. Don't know if it will happen, but I think it is possible enough that people should think about what they own hard asset wise. CD's and Bonds would do even worse than equities under this type of scenario.

Oh, and I am definitely not saying this "will" happen, or even "probably" happen. But i do this it is becoming something that is closer to possible than it was 3 months ago.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...ter-april-2020
I have mentioned this before, but if yields go up quite a bit, even if they stay under inflation, couldn't some folks lock in some nice real return rates on CD's, if there own personal inflation rate is much lower than the CPI?
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Old 04-25-2020, 02:44 PM   #364
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The beauty of CDs vs bonds in a rising rate environment is you know in advance the price hit if you cash it out early.
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Old 04-25-2020, 02:53 PM   #365
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Not true for brokered CDs.

Since bonds are generally bought through a brokerage, and treasuries to be sold on the secondary market have to go through a brokerage, you are in the same boat with CDs that you bought through a brokerage.
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Old 04-25-2020, 05:31 PM   #366
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Not true for brokered CDs.
Quite true.

I only buy brokered CD's when I know I will not need the money for the term of the CD.
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Old 04-26-2020, 12:43 AM   #367
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American Express Bank changes interest rate on its high yield savings account from 1.6% to 1.5% effective today.

- Rita
Yep; that really stinks. The interest rate on my Vio high-interest savings account has been slipping a bit, but it's still paying 1.69% - I think that's still one of the better rates out there.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:08 AM   #368
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We’ve been through this since 2009, and inflation didn’t happen then. We flirted with deflation instead.

Once we’re through tough economic times, maybe inflation could happen, but it seems a long way away.

I just went to re-order a pack of black beans and rice. Price is up 56% from January. Similar %'s for most of the food now.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:19 AM   #369
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I just went to re-order a pack of black beans and rice. Price is up 56% from January. Similar %'s for most of the food now.
I see food prices up somewhat, nothing like what you are seeing.

But it's to be expected. Supply and demand.

And OTOH gas/fuel prices way down, auto prices declining, etc.

Market for some goods has been disrupted, but it is still a market.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:10 PM   #370
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I see food prices up somewhat, nothing like what you are seeing.

But it's to be expected. Supply and demand.

And OTOH gas/fuel prices way down, auto prices declining, etc.

Market for some goods has been disrupted, but it is still a market.

I don't want to pull the rate thread off topic. So I'll be brief and then shutup about it (in this thread... )

Cheap gas is meaningless when I'm not/can't consume gas to make use of the cheap price. Same with cheap(er) cars (all I see is "we'll let you defer payment", not cheaper prices.
My day to day must spend $ (food) is skyrocketing right now so I just don't get it when people say "there is no inflation". And its not because I'm eating more while quarantined... I've cut back to 1.5 meals a day to make the food last longer and have lost ~30lbs in the last ~8 weeks... I'm going to have to spend even more $ buying smaller clothes.
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:25 PM   #371
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Returning to the original topic: with interest rates sinking fast, CD offerings are looking pathetic. What's the best deal to lock in a rate for the next year or 2?
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:34 PM   #372
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I just went to re-order a pack of black beans and rice. Price is up 56% from January. Similar %'s for most of the food now.
Wow, I have not seen that, a month ago I bought chicken legs $0.54 /lb
Now they are $0.64 /lb --> that's a 18.5% rise in a month, a 222% yearly inflation rate

Still cheap in my books.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:28 PM   #373
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Returning to the original topic: with interest rates sinking fast, CD offerings are looking pathetic. What's the best deal to lock in a rate for the next year or 2?
The best deal that I know of right now is Navy Federal's 37-month IRA CD special of 3% APY. But you need to be able to qualify to be a member and it has to be IRA money (can be traditional or Roth). $150k max IIRC.

Put DW's Roth into one of these a few weeks ago.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:35 PM   #374
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Coming from someone with 30+ years of experience...I would not be surprised in the least that many will have hard coded values.
Hard coded. In a COBOL program.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:47 PM   #375
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Hard coded. In a COBOL program.
So if you went in and changed each instant of a limit of 6 to 999 or 99 wouldn't it get you pretty close?
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:49 PM   #376
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The best deal that I know of right now is Navy Federal's 37-month IRA CD special of 3% APY. But you need to be able to qualify to be a member and it has to be IRA money (can be traditional or Roth). $150k max IIRC.

Put DW's Roth into one of these a few weeks ago.
Great Deal!

Anyone know how much one can ACH out of NFCU when initiated from an OUTSIDE source/destination such as Vanguard? I know if initiated from NFCU to and outside destination is $5k per day. That would take quite a few transactions for $250k.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:55 PM   #377
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I don't know the answer to you question but if it is for the special it would usually be a wire or check as a trustee-to-trustee transfer. If you want to do a rollover, you could deposit a check at a local branch (Tampa)... or at least you could have pre-COVID.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:59 PM   #378
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I don't know the answer to you question but if it is for the special it would usually be a wire or check as a trustee-to-trustee transfer. If you want to do a rollover, you could deposit a check at a local branch (Tampa)... or at least you could have pre-COVID.
My local CU (Not NFCU) does not charge for wire transfers for old farts like me... again not sure about NFCU. But I do not have to worry about it for another year.
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:16 PM   #379
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I don't know the answer to you question but if it is for the special it would usually be a wire or check as a trustee-to-trustee transfer. If you want to do a rollover, you could deposit a check at a local branch (Tampa)... or at least you could have pre-COVID.
+1.

Basically what I did. Fill out the form. Send it to NFCU. On the form you can select check or wire transfer. As far as I could tell there were no limits on the amount, though I did it in two separate transfers due to funds availability. FYI it is an add on CD, so you can add more later up to the maximum.

EDIT to add: Just realized that the questions was a transfer OUT, not in.
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Old 04-28-2020, 06:05 PM   #380
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So if you went in and changed each instant of a limit of 6 to 999 or 99 wouldn't it get you pretty close?
I never programmed professionally in COBOL. I'd like to think I'd have put this in a config file, with 0 meaning unlimited.
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