Big Question is "Yes or No"

[charlie]

Sorry, big guy. :

Cheers,

Charlie

[hocus]

It makes me feel better about holding cash to consider not just the direct earnings from the cash but also the indirect earnings--the greater return you will likely obtain from other assets providing higher direct returns than cash because the cash will permit you to buy them at lower prices. Those who denigrate cash overlook its strategic value.

[Beachbumz]

Quote:

It makes me feel better about holding cash to consider not just the direct earnings from the cash but also the indirect earnings--the greater return you will likely obtain from other assets providing higher direct returns than cash because the cash will permit you to buy them at lower prices. Those who denigrate cash overlook its strategic value.

That sounds suspiciously like market timing. Ever since my crystal ball got a crack in it, I have had trouble determining the best entry point(s); except in hindsight

Reminds me of years ago, when I just knew the market was too high (the DOW had just pasted 3000), so I put my IRA money in a money market account. I finally put it in the market at DOW 5000. :P

Beachbumz 8)

[hocus]

You should read Bernstein's "Four Pillars," BeachBumz.

[haha]

Quote:

That sounds suspiciously like market timing. Ever since my crystal ball got a crack in it, I have had trouble determining the best entry point(s); except in hindsight *

Interesting post. But there seem to be some confusions. The topic here is titled "The Big Question Is Yes or No?" Charlie Munger and Seth Klarman, who have standing I would think, are suggesting that there are good and not so good times for making an investment. So that pretty well implies that there is an important choice of whether to make an investment at whatever price happens to be available, or to try to wait for better opportunities.

All ***** did was say the exact same thing. Are you arguing with *****, because he is *****, or do you reject the whole thesis, even when presented by Munger, Klarman, Buffet et al?

One doesn't need the "best entry point", he just needs to avoid quite bad entry points. I have no problem with someone who says that today's values seem good to him, though I might wonder how he came to that conclusion. But I can't think of any logical support for the idea that a claim on a relatively stable stream of cash flows that has historically varied a great deal in price (the S&P!)would not have good buy points, OK buy points, and really bad buy points. I know "buy and hold anytime" is asserted frequently; but mostly by large investors who profit from having a broad and gullible market on which to dump their overpriced goods, or by mutual fund managers (including Vanguard) who benefit from stable inflows into their funds.

I am personally glad that there appear to be many who do hold this idea. It's what makes it possible for others with different understandings to buy low and sell high.

Mikey

[cute fuzzy bunny]

About 15 months ago I had an additional half mil to invest.

I considered investments overpriced and that time to be a bad one entry-wise.

After airing my plight here I was convinced to plow it on in with good asset allocation. That half mil is up $90k.

Right now I'm pretty happy with the decision to forego what I thought were high prices. Things havent looked so hot yesterday and today. A month from now I might be less happy with that decision.

I think there are maybe a couple of times in your investing life when you need to make macroscopic decisions based on whats going on in the market. Nasdaq 5000. 9/11. You get the idea.

Timing based on some market valuation model doesnt seem like a good idea. Buying investments that are below fair market value with a significantly obvious upside is a good idea. Good asset allocation and maintaining most of your money in it is a good idea.

Right now Morningstar has the overall stock market 9% overvalued. At the bottom of the trough in 2002 they had the overall market undervalued by 20%. (using 'morningstar fair value' @ http://www.morningstar.com/cover/pfvgraph.html ).

See, I had the market about fairly valued at the bottom of the 2002 trough and it seems terribly overvalued to me right now. Different strokes, different folks.

So while I think its expensive, and I'm torn over what to do with a lot of new cash, I'm not changing my allocations or taking any money out. Even though I am all but certain the last 2 days are the start of a couple of very, very bad months.

Why? Because I'm not sure, neither is anyone else, and we're not at one of those 'macroscopic' points where its obvious that something is very wrong or very right to change an investment strategy.

So in my opinion, *****'s market timing is all wet...proven wrong twice in the last 10 years. And because he's also a troll, he gets a double dip of pancakes and syrup...

When Munger says "good times and bad times", he's talkling about individual investments. Its a lot easier to determine fair market value for a company and a good entry point a la buffett than to detemine the same for the broad markets.

[hocus]

The Town Sheriff has spoken.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

So has the village idiot. What...are you mad because I actually clearly stated my position and used actual data sources and references? No "magic tool" required?

[hocus]

Please, sir. Requesting permission to speak, sir. May I speak, sir? Thank you, sir!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Only if you have a pancake on your head.


And from my perspective, preferably if you have something to say thats actually accurate, valid and useful. And that we havent heard 10000 times before?

Or you can just keep trying to create dissension and make me feel bad with this "town sheriff" thing. Good luck with that.

[hocus]

Thank you for taking time from your busy day to respond to my request, sir. You are so wonderful to all of us, sir. I just wanted to thank you for the many fine contributions you have made in recent days, sir. You are too good to us, sir. All hail intercst! Thank you again, sir.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You are most welcome.

[Cal]

Quote:

So has the village idiot. *What...are you mad because I actually clearly stated my position and used actual data sources and references? *No "magic tool" required?

Not only that - you actually practice what you preach.

[Cal]

Quote:

Thank you for taking time from your busy day to respond to my request, sir. You are so wonderful to all of us, sir. I just wanted to thank you for the many fine contributions you have made in recent days, sir. You are too good to us, sir. All hail intercst! Thank you again, sir.

While he is speaking with sarcasm, I speak with sincerity, I appreciate your contributions to the board. You have given a lot of good advice, have a great sense of humor and great taste in animals wearing food.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Thank you Cal, I think a lot of us make very positive contributions to help make this community what it is. Its therefore a little disturbing when that community and those contributions are damaged by a troll.

I'm sure some people arent happy with the way I treat poor Rob, but I havent heard anything from anyone yet, either publicly or privately, real person or ***** pretending to be someone else.

I think with this thread we have now started the

"Great Pizza vs. Pancake on the Head Debate"

With this discussion, hopefully, we call learn from each other as we venture forth into this realm of knowledge.

[brewer12345]

TH, its not that I don't appreciate the recent dada-ist turn of discourse, but I feel compelled to point out that you have been feeding the troll a bit too much lately. What ever happened to letting it die a hungry death?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

I think with this thread we have now started the "Great Pizza vs. Pancake on the Head Debate" With this discussion, hopefully, we call learn from each other as we venture forth into this realm of knowledge.

I've had recent death threats from the "pizza" camp, but you know that bunny is a liar and wont admit that it made a mistake. Our special Safe Pizza/Pancake Handling Tool has been specially designed to properly remove the pizza and replace it with the pancake on the head. Current Pizza valuations are simply outrageous and there is no safety in pizza. Due to the death threats, I have changed my name to "TH now with pizza on my head" to help keep my family safe.

Brewer - starving this troll doesnt work. Its been well proven.

[unclemick]

TH
You need to reread your Ben Graham. It's obvious from your pictures that the cheese needs to be more diversified across the surface of your pizzas - increasing the fling yield when launched from the proper tool - Thus increasing your margin of safety.

Watch out for pizza cutters - slice and dice might lead to busted pizzas - rendering them no longer useful to support good head placement.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

LOL...thanks Mick...thats sure to keep all of us on the right track to a safe retirement

Whew...glad things died down a little...I was almost forced to set it up such that everyone who opened a Hoco-mania thread would get to listen to one of william shatners songs in the background while viewing photos of animals with food on its head. :P