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Old 03-02-2020, 04:25 PM   #21
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I categorically reject such thinking.
Based on? Hopefully more than wishful thinking.
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:38 PM   #22
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Can we return this thread to its topic?
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:59 PM   #23
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Meh.
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:12 PM   #24
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Happy to see it go up although I am mostly out of equities. I can wait until all of this settles down to look again at our allocation.
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:21 PM   #25
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Based on? Hopefully more than wishful thinking.
Based on science. And facts.
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:22 PM   #26
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I'd also surmise that supply chains, driven by Adam Smith's invisible hand, are becoming more durable even as we speak.


Please explain the rationale for this comment? Thanks
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:27 PM   #27
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Based on science. And facts.
Such as?
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:15 PM   #28
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Well, I'm glad to see the bounce. It relieves the anxiety I was feeling about the market just continuing to fall and fall. Maybe people were somewhat reassured by news over the weekend or thought the sell-off was a bit of an over-reaction. Or maybe it'll reverse course again tomorrow, who knows.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:15 PM   #29
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? Isn't it #7 as a percentage basis, on that link you include.
I made that mistake too the first time I looked at it. The first set of tables is the highest point moves. They don't include many of the highest percentage moves from the past when the DOW was not 5 digits.

Scroll down for the complete percentage move tables.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:18 PM   #30
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Classic dead cat after a historically fast correction. Rate cuts don't cure viral pneumonia or destroyed supply chains. The outbreak is rapidly getting worse in the US and elsewhere. People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas and a grocery trade organization suggested that members consider a number of steps including limiting how much individual customers can buy of high demand items. The equity market bounce today is not reflective of the real world, so far as I can tell.

That's basically my feeling. Based on the news, it just seems to be worse regarding COVID-19 since last Friday, and catching up on the news this evening simply confirms that. So, I suspect this is just a temporary increase and that we will soon see more drops as things continue to get worse.
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Old 03-02-2020, 07:57 PM   #31
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Really? Let's break this hyperbole down.

"People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas ...."

Evidence please?

The brewer12345 post above is the worst form of alarmism.

Scientists and governments are all over this. As to the former, the world's best and brightest scientists are on the case.

I'm standing by, waiting for live footage of retail establishments being ransacked.
Perhaps ransacked wasn't the best choice of words. However:

While this isn't yet in ransack territory, "the day is young". What happens when the supply chain is disrupted and no new stock comes into the stores? Then it becomes like a run on the bank.

Look, nobody wants that to happen (at least I hope not). But more and more things are sold out online (places like Amazon, Target, Walmart, Sam's Club) and doing some drive by's on the way home it just seemed like the super markets were awe busy for a late Monday afternoon (even given it is the beginning of a month).
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:07 PM   #32
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Perhaps ransacked wasn't the best choice of words. However...

While this isn't yet in ransack territory, "the day is young". What happens when the supply chain is disrupted and no new stock comes into the stores? Then it becomes like a run on the bank.

Look, nobody wants that to happen (at least I hope not). But more and more things are sold out online (places like Amazon, Target, Walmart, Sam's Club) and doing some drive by's on the way home it just seemed like the super markets were awe busy for a late Monday afternoon (even given it is the beginning of a month).
Right now, things are selectively "ransacked". Though where I live now, on the northern Oregon coast (in a state where a few cases have been reported), the only things currently "out" are masks and hand sanitizer. As of earlier this afternoon, there is still plenty of TP on the shelves. There's even plenty of supplies to make your own hand sanitizer (it's trivial to do). All that said, yes, in the weeks to come there is substantial risk of more things being in short supply because of disruptions in the supply chain. But overall, right now, I can't say things are "ransacked" around here.

IMO: An abundance of precaution is in order. Maybe most people who are young and healthy have little more to fear than a somewhat bad case of the flu, but remember those who are elderly, who have compromised immune systems, who have pulmonary and cardiovascular conditions. They have a lot more at stake. For them, if not for you, please exercise caution. Don't panic, but also treat it seriously. "Ransacked" creates panic that is mostly unwarranted. But it's not the time for Pollyanna, either.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:13 PM   #33
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Really? Let's break this hyperbole down.

"People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas ...."

Evidence please?

The brewer12345 post above is the worst form of alarmism.

Scientists and governments are all over this. As to the former, the world's best and brightest scientists are on the case.

I'm standing by, waiting for live footage of retail establishments being ransacked.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/groc...ockpiling.html

There is a developing panic at the retail level by people who have been told by the CDC to stockpile enough food and supplies for two weeks. The evidence is everywhere if you are looking for it. Grocery stores are seeing a big uptick in business. Costcos in some areas are being hit and in some places are running out of staple items (toilet paper seems to be a big one). You will have a hard time buying a bottle of hand sanitizer most places. Cold and flu meds are hard to come by. And so on. Stores are getting restocked regularly, but it sounds a lot to me like grocers and retailers are having a challenging time keeping up. I personally don't care all that much since I always have a stockpile of food and supplies, but I have been watching carefully to try to divine the immediate future.

I could point to plenty of other indicators, but something tells me your mind is made up. I hope you are right and all those best and brightest people who apparently couldn't figure out how to even test for the disease in the US figure out how to defeat it. I expect they will, eventually. In the meantime, we will live in interesting times.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:14 PM   #34
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Ransacked is no different than when a big snow storm or hurricane or other severe weather is predicted. People buy out the bottled water, milk, eggs, and beer. All for a at worse 3-4 days of weather activity. The ransacking is not justified, but people do it all the time.
Back on topic, I was glad to see the increase. I am not timing the market, but it just feels better seeing the drop stop (for now).
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:11 PM   #35
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/groc...ockpiling.html
I could point to plenty of other indicators, but something tells me your mind is made up. I hope you are right and all those best and brightest people who apparently couldn't figure out how to even test for the disease in the US figure out how to defeat it. I expect they will, eventually. In the meantime, we will live in interesting times.
My mind isn’t made up. I am, however, a scientist. So I am still waiting for evidence of retail stores being ransacked, which is what you said was underway.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:14 PM   #36
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My mind isn’t made up. I am, however, a scientist. So I am still waiting for evidence of retail stores being ransacked, which is what you said was underway.
I just spent 90 minutes wrestling with a beaver carcass (holy cow they are fatty) so I am too tired to go dig up links. Do your own research. If you are happy with your head in the sand, more power to you.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:43 PM   #37
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On Thursday of last week, 2/27, there was a report of panic buying at Costco in Honolulu.



On Sat 2/29, there were panic buying in the Seattle area and reports of empty store shelves when the news broke of virus cases at a nursing home.



Perhaps that flurry of buying activity has subsided and the stores have been able to restock.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:48 PM   #38
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Here's a report today from an NBC affiliate station in Southern California.

As I mentioned elsewhere, I saw what I thought was a bit more activities at one particular Costco in Phoenix, but nothing like the above videos. Arizona however had only 1 case a few weeks ago, and the patient has fully recovered. He was also a "patient 0", meaning he brought back the virus from China after traveling there, and fortunately did not infect anyone else.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/c...virus/2321449/
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:52 PM   #39
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I witnessed a Costco sold out of water. I didn't need any, just noticed.
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Old 03-02-2020, 11:38 PM   #40
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I witnessed a Costco sold out of water. I didn't need any, just noticed.
We get our water from the tap.

And if that goes belly up, there is always the river down the way.

If our society is at a point where survival is dependent upon plastic containers from a retail establishment, we’ve regressed from the Neanderthals.

And some days, I think we have so regressed. The plastic is deleterious for the environment, too.

Life is great. We all have First World problems. Tomorrow will be better than today.
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