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Old 05-17-2017, 01:30 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by exnavynuke View Post
Looks like the results for a 48 year old on a 30 year retirement.
Ahhhh! Yes, I missed that little box for 'age'. Thanks.

Mods: Not sure who does this, but when I clicked on the link: " See his research for more details." re: Bernicke model, the page did not have anything relevant.
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Old 05-17-2017, 02:15 PM   #42
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Just the normal reminder: Taking our historical returns too seriously will lead to a higher expected "precision" in our estimates than is warranted. Yes, history is all we have, but if we are using the modern US data set, let's not forget we're already selecting the very best results out of about 146 countries--we're already cherry-picking. Maybe the horse will continue to perform in the same relative way--I hope it does. But maybe it will not.
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Old 05-17-2017, 04:57 PM   #43
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May be true in a prolonged now interest rate environment. That said, we've been discussing this idea since about 2009 when the Fed basically started slashing interest rates to zero...
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Old 05-17-2017, 10:48 PM   #44
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I'm planning on a 3% constant withdrawal rate; whaddya think? Too risky given what we're likely facing going forward?
I have not started systematic w/d yet, but targeting 3% of assets each Dec w/o adjustments (maybe zip; depends on how deep the coming dip is)--flexible withdrawals, I think the term is--for the first few years. I am looking at 25 years max. Nothing for de kinder planned. All planning for surviving frau.

At these valuations, I fear rough seas in the near future ("In zee near" as my old Kraut engineering comrade used to say).
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Old 05-17-2017, 10:56 PM   #45
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I should mention that after wasting an amazing amount of time and $, I have had a revelation that I cannot do any better than VWELX, and it doesn't take any work.
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Old 05-17-2017, 11:56 PM   #46
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I should mention that after wasting an amazing amount of time and $, I have had a revelation that I cannot do any better than VWELX, and it doesn't take any work.
I noted the same a while back. The only benefit I'm getting from my broader fund selection is placement for taxes, but that's not as important now as it was when I was accumulating. And if I tried to switch now, the CG losses would be painful. But my portfolio will slowly get simpler in the decades ahead.
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