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05-17-2017, 01:30 PM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnavynuke
Looks like the results for a 48 year old on a 30 year retirement.
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Ahhhh! Yes, I missed that little box for 'age'. Thanks.
Mods: Not sure who does this, but when I clicked on the link: " See his research for more details." re: Bernicke model, the page did not have anything relevant.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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05-17-2017, 02:15 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SW Ohio
Posts: 14,404
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Just the normal reminder: Taking our historical returns too seriously will lead to a higher expected "precision" in our estimates than is warranted. Yes, history is all we have, but if we are using the modern US data set, let's not forget we're already selecting the very best results out of about 146 countries--we're already cherry-picking. Maybe the horse will continue to perform in the same relative way--I hope it does. But maybe it will not.
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05-17-2017, 04:57 PM
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#43
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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May be true in a prolonged now interest rate environment. That said, we've been discussing this idea since about 2009 when the Fed basically started slashing interest rates to zero...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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05-17-2017, 10:48 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia
I'm planning on a 3% constant withdrawal rate; whaddya think? Too risky given what we're likely facing going forward?
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I have not started systematic w/d yet, but targeting 3% of assets each Dec w/o adjustments (maybe zip; depends on how deep the coming dip is)--flexible withdrawals, I think the term is--for the first few years. I am looking at 25 years max. Nothing for de kinder planned. All planning for surviving frau.
At these valuations, I fear rough seas in the near future ("In zee near" as my old Kraut engineering comrade used to say).
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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05-17-2017, 10:56 PM
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#45
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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I should mention that after wasting an amazing amount of time and $, I have had a revelation that I cannot do any better than VWELX, and it doesn't take any work.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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05-17-2017, 11:56 PM
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#46
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
I should mention that after wasting an amazing amount of time and $, I have had a revelation that I cannot do any better than VWELX, and it doesn't take any work.
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I noted the same a while back. The only benefit I'm getting from my broader fund selection is placement for taxes, but that's not as important now as it was when I was accumulating. And if I tried to switch now, the CG losses would be painful. But my portfolio will slowly get simpler in the decades ahead.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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