|
12-30-2008, 12:54 PM
|
#1
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: west bloomfield MI
Posts: 2,223
|
Bonds vs cash
I am 18 years from FIRE at earliest, maybe 22-25 years depending on things.
I had been close to 100% equities thus far and am looking at choices for an 80-20 or 90-10 portfolio.
I had 5% in bonds earlier in 2008 (95-5) selling off 1% of equities every 6 months to move to 80-20 over a 10 year period.
I decided to get more aggressive (sell 4% equity per year over 5 years) so I have cash to buy on next dip.
When accumulating, what are the pros/cons of using cash vs bonds as the asset class to rebalance to?
The cash (money market funds) I am looking at show 5 and 10 year returns around 4%.
The bond funds I am looking at show a 4-6% return over same 5 and 10 year periods.
My bond funds in 2008 lost value... so I am thinking that cash makes sense so I have it when I want to rebalance... but looking for other comments to see if there is a point of view I am missing.
I am down about 40-60% in all accounts right now at 95% equity. NOT SELLING ANYTHING until I recover my losses. I am directing a small percentage (3%) to bonds and another 3% to cash right now and will rebalance after a recovery. What I rebalance to (bonds or cash) is the question.
__________________
Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
12-30-2008, 01:26 PM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
|
You can comb the historical record on bond and equity returns and make your own judgement. Whether the future resembles history is another open question, although I find it hard to believe that the future will be completely out of synch with the past.
As for right now, I find that investors in anything other than cash are being compensated at a very high level for incremental risk. I am an opportunistic bugger who will invest in almost anything if I feel the risk-adjusted return is there. At one point in 2007 my largest position was in warrants issued by a small cap company. And what do I find myself buying lately? Investment grade bonds. Its a funny world, really.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
|
|
|
12-30-2008, 08:53 PM
|
#3
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
|
Bonds may offer a better chance of actual gains when stocks go down. Cash pretty much just sits there. Especially now. Getting into some of the more depressed bonds right now seems reasonable.
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 08:20 AM
|
#4
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,558
|
I'm with brewer on this one. Buy anything you want except long term treasuries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
You can comb the historical record on bond and equity returns and make your own judgement. Whether the future resembles history is another open question, although I find it hard to believe that the future will be completely out of synch with the past.
As for right now, I find that investors in anything other than cash are being compensated at a very high level for incremental risk. I am an opportunistic bugger who will invest in almost anything if I feel the risk-adjusted return is there. At one point in 2007 my largest position was in warrants issued by a small cap company. And what do I find myself buying lately? Investment grade bonds. Its a funny world, really.
|
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 09:47 AM
|
#5
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
|
I think it's good to own both bonds and cash. Cash / short term bonds and intermediate term bonds react differently enough in response to inflation / interest rates to make it worthwhile to own both IMHO. I personally stay away from longer term and junk bonds. Right now I am also staying away from treasuries/agencies but I am buying corporates, munis and TIPS.
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 03:06 PM
|
#6
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 654
|
Firedreamer,
I noticed you are buying muni's. Do you buy muni funds or individual issues? I had planned to buy muni's but have held back. Probably missed the best bottom end NAV's on funds.
Thanks for all opinions and thoughts,
Steve
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 03:20 PM
|
#7
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,130
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevewc
Firedreamer,
I noticed you are buying muni's. Do you buy muni funds or individual issues? I had planned to buy muni's but have held back. Probably missed the best bottom end NAV's on funds.
Thanks for all opinions and thoughts,
Steve
|
I think FD said he wasn't buying muni's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Right now I am also staying away from treasuries/agencies and buying corporates, munis and TIPS.
|
FWIW - when I buy muni's I buy VG funds
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 03:38 PM
|
#8
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
|
I just edited my previous post because I realized that it may not have been clear. Just to make sure:
I am buying munis, corporates and TIPS
I am NOT buying plain treasuries/agencies
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevewc
Firedreamer,
I noticed you are buying muni's. Do you buy muni funds or individual issues? I had planned to buy muni's but have held back. Probably missed the best bottom end NAV's on funds.
Thanks for all opinions and thoughts,
Steve
|
I only buy VG muni funds (VWITX and VWSTX). I looked into buying individual bonds but decided to stick with low cost funds instead mostly because of costs and liquidity considerations.
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 03:43 PM
|
#9
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 654
|
Firedreamer,
With the crazyness of the NAV's recently, do you see putting new money in the vanguard funds wise at this time.
Steve
|
|
|
12-31-2008, 05:26 PM
|
#10
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevewc
Firedreamer,
With the crazyness of the NAV's recently, do you see putting new money in the vanguard funds wise at this time.
Steve
|
I don't know if it's "wise" (only time will tell), but I think that some bond funds are attractive right now. The credit markets are still "dysfunctional" and people are only interested in treasuries paying low interest rates so the yield spread between treasuries and munis/corporates is pretty wide. In that respect I think that both munis and corporates are still good buys right now. As for TIPS, as long as you can find real yields exceeding 2.5-3%, I think that they are good buys for the longer term assuming we avoid a great depression-style scenario.
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|